00:00Next, Russian President Vladimir Putin has held decades of special ties with Syria
00:05as he welcomed President Ahmed al-Sharah to the Kremlin for the first time
00:09a year after al-Sharah ousted Moscow's close ally Bashar al-Assad.
00:14The Syrian president told Putin during the meeting that he would honour all past deals
00:18struck between the two countries, a pledge suggesting Moscow's two main military bases in Syria are safe.
00:25Well, let's bring in Thomas Perrier. He's a senior researcher at the CNRS Institute of Research
00:32and Study on Arab and Islamic Worlds. Thomas, thank you so much for joining us on the programme.
00:38Good morning.
00:39Good morning. Just not too long ago, Putin and al-Sharah were practically enemies.
00:43They were both standing on opposing sides of the civil war.
00:47Now Putin's speaking of the special relationship between their two countries.
00:51Has all the past been forgotten here? Is there no bad blood?
00:55Well, actually, the shift was extremely fast. It happened almost overnight.
01:02I mean, as soon as Assad fell, Russia very rapidly readjusted to the new situation
01:07and quite rapidly mended, you know, ties with the new regime.
01:13Long before this visit, which is just the confirmation of this shift,
01:18Russia obviously was extremely keen to preserve its military presence in Syria,
01:26its bases mostly on the coast, and it did what is necessary to keep them.
01:32Well, Bashar al-Assad and his family have been in Moscow since he was toppled in December of 2024.
01:38Russia gave him asylum out of humanitarian considerations.
01:42Talk to us about the role that Russia played in propping up the Assad regime when Assad was in power.
01:48Well, that war was absolutely crucial because by mid-2015,
01:57Russia was, sorry, Assad was on the, the Assad regime was on the verge of collapse.
02:02It was faced with, you know, several military defeats against the rebels in the West,
02:08against the Islamic State in the East.
02:10There was even unrest among its core constituencies that were very unhappy with the way that the war was going on.
02:19And so Assad and his Iranian ally called on Vladimir Putin to intervene.
02:25Russia's intervention was mostly carried out through air power.
02:29There were very few troops on the ground, but Russian air power really made a difference.
02:34They intervened in a very brutal, very deadly fashion, but they turned the tide of the conflict.
02:42And let's say within a year, Assad was coming back to the fore,
02:47taking back especially the eastern half of Aleppo, the second largest city.
02:53And by 2018, he had retrived, let's say, two thirds of the country.
02:58Well, one of the big speaking points during yesterday's visit were these two military bases that Russia has in Syria.
03:07Al-Sharad seems to be open to Russia keeping those military bases.
03:11Talk to us why Russia is so keen to have that military foothold in Syria.
03:19Well, that's Russia's only significant military foothold in the Mediterranean.
03:25Well, with the exception of Russian military positions in Libya, but it's precisely, it's related because Russia needs its military infrastructures in Syria to be able to connect with its infrastructures in Libya.
03:47So they have an air base in Hmeim, which is on the coast, and naval facilities in Tartus.
03:55Again, they're the only one they have.
03:57And perhaps what is less known is that Russia also has military bases in the north and eastern part of Syria.
04:06So in the region that's controlled by Kurdish armed groups in the airport of Khamishli.
04:12That's something that's being overlooked at the moment, but which is quite important as well.
04:16Well, I think Syria is hoping to get something out of this pledge to have Russia keep a hold of its military bases.
04:25Of course, Syria is facing a number of security and economic challenges.
04:29How do you think Al-Sharad is hoping that Russia can help with that?
04:33Well, officially, they're talking about trade, about Russia, you know, helping with the energy sector and transport and so on, which is probably true.
04:46But I don't think that's the main issue.
04:49I mean, there are two more important issues, in my view, which are, of course, Russia's position as a permanent member in the UN Security Council.
04:59And that's a support Syria definitely needs, because at the moment it has good relations with the United States.
05:07But I think Syrian leaders are, you know, cannot be sure that this will last forever.
05:14I mean, if you consider the close relations between the United States and Israel, there is a possibility that this might change.
05:22And in that case, Syria would definitely need Russian support at the UN Security Council.
05:28But then there are weapons.
05:30I mean, Syria is poor.
05:31It cannot afford expensive Russian military hardware.
05:34But its army is mostly made up of, you know, Russian hardware.
05:43And it needs spare parts.
05:45It means it needs technical assistance to repair what needs to be repaired.
05:50I mean, the Syrian army is in a very poor state.
05:53And so it definitely needs Russia to improve, you know, the state of its military apparatus.
06:01Let's talk about the big sticking point between the two sides.
06:06Al-Assad, he's in Russia at the moment.
06:09Al-Sharad wants him extradited.
06:12Talk to us about whether you think Russia will ever agree to that.
06:17I don't think Russia will.
06:21It's a matter of credibility.
06:23I mean, Russia was not able to keep Assad in power.
06:26But at least, I mean, if it wants to remain credible, especially in the eyes of its other allies in the world, it needs to provide minimum security to Assad himself.
06:41And sorry, I'm not sure it's such a big sticking point in the sense that even the Syrian government is not asking very vocally for the extradition of Assad.
06:53I mean, prior to the visit of Assad to Moscow, they made it known through some, like, you know, backdoor or through some leak to a press agency.
07:06But they did not formulate it very openly or very vocally.
07:10I mean, they know that would be very embarrassing for Russia.
07:12So I don't think even the Syrian government will insist very much on that.
07:16And definitely, I think Russia will not extradite Assad.
07:20Thomas, it was great to get your insight.
07:22Thank you so much for joining us today on Daybreak.
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