00:00Next up on the list, and I saw the opening rookie of the year odds on bet MGM and Carter Jensen is not getting enough respect. This guy pillages baseball. When we were in Atlanta watching the futures game, watching this guy hit batting practice, he was hitting the ball as far and as loud as any player there.
00:25But he doesn't have the same stature. And Royals fans, they're used to 40 home runs from Salvador Perez at their catching position. And while he might not be 40 home runs, he certainly has the power to do so. But it seems like there's some good plate discipline here with Carter Jensen as well.
00:42And that was that was the big wrinkle. I think that's really progressed nicely with him. And I'm glad you mentioned that because it's there was there was swing and miss concern and just strikeouts concern in general.
00:52And I think you saw that the plate discipline improved drastically, especially against spin this year, where he was just rarely chasing against spin and usually quality spin.
01:02And I think it was like a 15% chase rate against breaking balls. Then on top of that, you see him hammering heaters as well as ever. You see the exit velocities climb to the highest mark we've seen between his big league debut and his minor league season this year.
01:15Jensen had a 55% hard hit rate, which, you know, is I think what 20% above average. So that part of it was amazing.
01:24Started to elevate the ball more consistently. You mentioned just the BP laser show that he puts on and now just converting that into game power more.
01:31I've always had some questions about the defense. And now, you know, I think there's still some questions about how impactful of a defender he's going to be behind the dish.
01:41But you know that he's going to be a guy that can get by at least behind the dish and be, I think, pretty close to average, which is fine.
01:48And he's 22 and athletic. So there's room for more.
01:50But at least it looks like someone that you don't have to worry about moving off the position there.
01:54And then you started to see that power really starts to shine through at the big league level, though.
01:57He had a home run 113 miles per hour, 480 feet, I think, in Sacramento.
02:02You started to see a lot of 110 plus EVs. And he started to hit lefties better as well.
02:08So if Jensen has all those things going for him, I think, as you alluded to, he's one of the dark horses for rookie of the year.
02:13I think it's some of the, as I've always said with him, some of the most underrated raw power in baseball.
02:18Now it's 70 grade raw power, just about. And now that the other complementary skills are all coming along really well.
02:25And it's funny, we look at guys like Nolan McClain or Trey Savage and their cup of coffee in Major League Baseball was fantastic.
02:33Carter Jensen had the same. It's just the Royals were not in playoff contention.
02:37He put up a 159 WRC plus through his first 20-ish games for the Royals, meaning he was 59% better than a league average hitter.
02:48So if he could be a league average defender at catcher, we're looking at potentially one of the better young catchers in the game.
02:55And speaking about young catchers, Joe Mack, one of your favorite prospects in baseball.
03:00You've been talking about this guy for a long time. It was probably fun to see him continue to rise up this list, going from 48 to now 26 on the top 100 for the Miami Marlins.
03:12It was interesting because of the timing of like his, the last update, Mack was struggling a little bit in AAA.
03:18Then I think really there was a focus on handling pitch shapes a little bit better. Breaking balls were giving him some, some challenges and a little bit more of just the preparation and what goes into the swing decisions approach.
03:30And he sprinted through the finish line, Mack did in his final 30 games at an 863 OPS and AAA, eight homers in that span.
03:37And the thing with Mack is his, he might be the best defensive catcher that you've got in the upper minor leagues right now.
03:43So I, I, there was one throw I know you saw, I put out on, on Twitter towards the end of the season where he like looked like he was about to throw to third.
03:51And then I don't know if it was intentional or like a last second adjustment and kind of threw flat footed, like almost like a shortstop straight across to second base.
04:01Well, his feet were taking him to third and it was right on the money.
04:04And I was like, I don't know if I've ever seen a catcher make a throw like that.
04:07And then you had big leaguers, former catchers quote tweeting and saying, holy crap, I've never seen anybody do this.
04:12Um, so I think you look at that, the receiving, the way, the way he defends, he has a chance to be a 70 grade defender, the offensive barrier at that point.
04:20If you're that good of a defensive catcher to be three plus war guys, very low.
04:24We look at Patrick Bailey and other guys like that, but Mack has above average to plus power.
04:29So yes, I have some concern that the hit tool is going to be below average, but even if he's a 30 grade hitter, if he's walking and he's doing 20 to 25 home runs with 70 grade defense, that's a catcher that can put up for war season.
Be the first to comment