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00:01I bet if I picked up a microphone and said today the weather will be pleasant
00:07anyone from Japan who heard me would just think, oh, Oroki must be testing that
00:12microphone. Ten seconds left. But people from other countries would think I was
00:17giving a forecast. They'd assume I just wanted them to know it would be clear.
00:21Okay, time's up. Pass your papers to the front.
00:26Both assumptions could be considered reasonable. Both parties have a fifty-fifty shot at being
00:34right. It all depends on luck. What's the world coming to, man?
00:38Out.
00:46Out.
02:25I've been wondering, your Uncle June, did everything go all right with his funeral?
02:34It turned out very well, thank you.
02:36Oh, good.
02:45What's wrong?
02:46Nothing. It's just...
02:50Oreki, could you do me a favor?
02:54Do you think that you could light some incense for my uncle?
02:57You want me to?
02:59Yes, please.
03:00I am planning to make a trip out to his gravesite in the next few days or so.
03:03And, well, I hoped you'd... come with me.
03:14Yeah, sure. I'll go.
03:16Oh, great. I'll be in touch with you about the details soon.
03:21Cool.
03:25I just have to tell you, Oreki, you have a gift when it comes to mysteries, and I'm grateful that you solved the one about my uncle. I think you're amazing.
03:33You know, I appreciate this sentiment, but I've always just gotten lucky. I wish you wouldn't treat me like I'm a big deal or whatever.
03:43You sure are humble. That's impressive.
03:45Oh, man. She totally missed the point.
03:49Chitanda, I heard something once upon a time that struck me as profound.
03:53What is that?
03:54You can put poultice and plausible reason on anything.
03:59Oreki, the saying goes, you can put plaster and plausible reason on anything.
04:05That's what it says?
04:07I just mean you can find reasons to support anything you want.
04:11If you say so, then the reason you've solved all these cases is only pure dumb luck, and it has nothing to do with your intelligence.
04:18And your talent isn't a factor either, okay?
04:20However, you've been able to capitalize on the luck you've had and follow through to the correct conclusions.
04:25Now, isn't that in and of itself a particular kind of talent?
04:28Are you trying to say I'm a master of reason?
04:30Am I wrong?
04:31Yeah, you are.
04:33I couldn't tell you how I made those deductions.
04:35Honestly, that's the real mystery here.
04:37If I had to guess, what I would say is that you have never really taken a good, honest look at yourself.
04:46She's not wrong there.
04:51In that case, Chitanda, I want you to come up with a situation.
04:55I'll prove to you that I can invent a good reason for it, whatever it is.
04:59This is a dream come true!
05:02Hmm.
05:03This is the perfect opportunity to show her that she can't actually rely on me.
05:07Alright then.
05:08What should I pick for you?
05:13Anyone who was shopping at Kobundo near the train station on October 31st, please report to Shibazaki in the faculty room immediately.
05:21What is that all about?
05:28No clue.
05:31Let's make that the situation!
05:34Please deduce why that announcement was made just now.
05:37So what's the story behind it?
05:40Okay, fine. Challenge accepted.
05:48Right, here you go.
05:51Hmm.
05:53Your power of recollection is as intimidating as ever.
05:56That's no compliment.
05:58Let's see.
06:00Anyone who was shopping at Kobundo near the train station on October 31st, please report to Shibazaki in the faculty room immediately.
06:10First thing we should do is a word check.
06:13Do you know what this Kobundo is?
06:15Yes, it's a little stationery store across from the train station.
06:19Hmm.
06:21It's very quaint and it's run by a sweet elderly couple.
06:24I've only been there once, though.
06:26What kind of stationery?
06:27Oh, the usual.
06:30North Elementary is nearby, so I think they might specialize in the kinds of things grade schoolers would use.
06:35So it's not the kind of place where high schoolers would go out of their way to shop.
06:39I suppose you could say that.
06:42Is Shibazaki on the faculty here?
06:44Oraki, Mr. Shibazaki is the vice principal.
06:47For all your deductive prowess, you're not good with remembering people's names, huh?
06:52Leave me alone.
06:53If I don't have to, I'm not going to.
06:58If I have to, I'll do it as quickly as possible.
07:01That was my unshakable creed.
07:04But the stakes of this contest are high.
07:06I'm going to have to turn up the heat a little on this one.
07:11First off...
07:11Yes?
07:12I've deduced why Shibazaki would be calling people in to see him.
07:16Yes, I have a pretty good idea of that myself.
07:19Just to make things clearer, let's refer to the student who's been called out as X.
07:27Now we're getting into the swing of things.
07:35Why don't you have a seat?
07:37Okay.
07:42At this point, with the information we have, there's no way to know whether X is a single
07:49kid or multiple people.
07:54Could be anything.
07:56A teaching moment.
07:57He could be trying to teach X a lesson about something that happened.
08:01In other words, he could be calling X to the faculty room to chew them out.
08:04What makes you so certain about that?
08:06Because when students are called down to the faculty room, it's very rarely for something
08:10good.
08:11That's what you call inductive reasoning.
08:15Araki, are you taking this seriously?
08:18I haven't been this serious about something since I started at Kamihai.
08:21I'd go so far as to say I haven't been this serious my whole life.
08:25Besides, if he was summoning X to the faculty room to offer praise, he wouldn't put it in
08:30such fake terms.
08:31He would just say that's what was going on, and he would have called the person out by name.
08:34With an announcement like that, anyone involved would be too anxious to answer it.
08:39You're right.
08:40That's a good point.
08:41Furthermore, that sounded like an urgent page.
08:44You mean because he said immediately?
08:45No, most pages use that word.
08:48It's not that.
08:49This announcement deviated from the standard pattern, so we can deduce that they made it
08:53hastily.
08:55Standard pattern?
08:56How so?
08:56Let's say you wanted to make an announcement addressing me, asking me to come to class 1A.
09:01What would you say?
09:03Well, let me see.
09:05Something like this.
09:07Attention, students.
09:08Would Hotoro Oregi of class 1B please report to Erochichanda in the 1A classroom?
09:14Is that really all?
09:15Try to think of other announcements you've heard this year.
09:18If it were me, I'd say,
09:23Attention, would Erochichanda of class 1A please report to Hotoro Oregi in class 1B at once?
09:29I repeat, would Erochichanda of class 1A please report to Hotoro Oregi in the 1B classroom at once?
09:37It's not like a regular announcement.
09:39Usually summons like that are repeated somehow.
09:42But for whatever reason, he only made this announcement once.
09:45I think it's safe to conclude he was in a rush.
09:52It's not just any run-of-the-mill rush either.
09:54It's not?
09:56I know that because of when we heard it.
09:58He made the announcement after school.
10:01I don't know.
10:02That seems pretty insignificant if you ask me.
10:05Oh yeah?
10:06Then I won't say why I think that.
10:08Oregi, come on!
10:11It's just a bit odd.
10:13Why make that announcement after school?
10:14Why not make it earlier in the day?
10:17Sure, Kamiyama may have a ton of after school clubs and activities, but there are still plenty of students here who leave right away.
10:23That makes me think he made the announcement after school, because the event that caused the announcement happened after school too.
10:30And it was urgent enough that he couldn't risk waiting to summon X until tomorrow.
10:33So that means Shibazaki followed his impulse and took the gamble that X hadn't gone home from school yet.
10:41I gotta say, this whole thing feels incredibly shady to me.
10:45Yeah, me too.
10:46And the term shady, how did it come to mean what it does?
10:48Don't know.
10:49Next deduction.
10:52Whatever Shibazaki wants to speak to X about, that subject can't be discussed out in the open.
10:57Whether that's just for now or forever, we have no way of knowing.
11:01Do you figure that because Shibazaki didn't give a reason for making the page?
11:05That's a factor, but there's an even clearer reason I think so.
11:12It's not clear to me.
11:14Shibazaki is the vice principal, right?
11:16The guidance counselor is usually the one who comes down on students.
11:19That's right.
11:20Morishita is always the one to call students in.
11:23Where's the guidance counselor's office?
11:25It's on the second floor of the main building.
11:28But Shibazaki summoned X to the faculty room and not the guidance counselor's office.
11:32To me, that means the circumstances were serious.
11:36And that all information about this incident was to be kept between the administration only.
11:41Or so it could be argued.
11:47Listen, Oreki.
11:49What is it?
11:50Judging by what you've deduced about this situation so far,
11:53I can't escape the feeling that X was involved in doing something really bad.
11:58Well, that's what all the signs point to.
12:00So then...
12:03Student X committed some kind of crime.
12:09This is only a game between Chitanda and me.
12:23My explanation doesn't have to match up with the truth.
12:26I mean, the whole point of this was to prove that my assessments are only right when I have a good deal of luck on my side.
12:32So then, what crime could X have committed?
12:34Before we get to that, if we assume that my deductions are accurate, we have to note that the school doesn't have a police officer.
12:41So it's likely that law enforcement has been summoned here to talk to X about what went down.
12:46If a crime was committed, it must have happened on October 31st.
12:51And yet, the announcement came a few minutes ago and seemed really hurried.
12:54It's conceivable that the page followed immediately after some request from law enforcement.
13:01But that could have been done relatively easily over the phone.
13:04That may be true, but if worse came to worse and it was decided that X was guilty, the police might have to take X into custody.
13:11They could have come to the school just in case that became necessary.
13:13Custody? Do you mean, if X is found guilty, that they would face criminal charges?
13:20Well, it's possible.
13:24Hey, it's a game, remember?
13:27Oh, right. I keep forgetting.
13:30If X weren't the culprit, Shibazaki would have waited to make the announcement and he wouldn't have sounded so rushed.
13:35That makes sense.
13:36Now, as far as what crime we may be dealing with here, do you have any ideas?
13:40It must have to do with the store somehow.
13:43Well, let's see.
13:45Shoplifting is the obvious choice.
13:47Mm-hmm.
13:48Beyond that, it's possible that someone had committed crimes at other locations,
13:52but police received a testimony that someone of that suspect's description had been seen shopping at Kobundo.
13:57But if that's the case, the crime could have been any number of heinous acts.
14:02It could have been anything.
14:04That's a detailed answer for having been put on the spot.
14:07Considering the announcement, I doubt anyone gave a physical description.
14:11Why's that?
14:11If the police had a description of someone who had committed a crime, they would probably share it with Shibazaki.
14:18He would have been able to think of at least one name and wouldn't just have said anyone who was shopping at Kobundo in the announcement.
14:24That's a good point.
14:25The incident occurred at Kobundo, and all we know for sure was that X was shopping there on October 31st.
14:31Was the purpose of the announcement to make X turn themselves in?
14:39If that's the case, it's kind of a weird way to do it.
14:43I speculate that law enforcement doesn't know very much about X, but they assume that the announcement will lead X to confess their crimes.
14:51Why would that be?
14:53If I had done something wrong and that page came over the PA system...
14:59Anyone who was shopping at Kobundo near the train station on October 31st, please report to Shibazaki in the faculty room immediately.
15:08Ten more seconds.
15:10Good.
15:10The police still don't know I'm the one who did it.
15:13If all goes according to plan, I could get away with it and go on to become a criminal mastermind.
15:21Why would a guilty party ever come forward just because they heard an announcement like that?
15:26If they had some sense of remorse about the crime...
15:29No, if that were the case, they'd have turned themselves in already and wouldn't be at large.
15:32What are you thinking?
15:41Let's forget about the nature of the crime for a moment and try another tactic.
15:44Now suppose X felt guilty about what they had done.
15:47Maybe they decided to apologize to the owners of Kobundo.
15:50In writing.
15:52Wait, in writing?
15:53Chitanda, do you know the date off the top of your head?
15:56Of course, it's November 1st.
15:58So the crime was committed yesterday, October 31st, right?
16:02Why didn't Shibazaki say Kobundo next to the train station yesterday in his announcement?
16:08Now that you mention it, that is quite unusual.
16:11Why would someone spell out October 31st instead of saying yesterday?
16:15One explanation could be that they have some sort of form or note in front of them on which all that is written out and they are reading the date directly from it.
16:22A form or a note, huh?
16:24Yeah.
16:25Furthermore, why do the police know that X was involved in a crime but have no idea what X looks like?
16:30Why would they assume that X would come forward just because they were paged?
16:34To put it another way, why would they think X felt remorse for the crime?
16:38It has to be that X sent an apology note to Kobundo.
16:42It probably went something like this.
16:44I'm terribly sorry.
16:46I was shopping in your store on October 31st and committed an unlawful act.
16:50I intend to pay for the damage I caused, so please accept such and such and my sincere apology.
16:56Kobundo then takes that apology note directly to the police.
16:59Either the police or other law enforcement follows up on the letter and decides to come to Kami High.
17:04That just happened mere moments ago.
17:06Then Shibazaki reads the note and is so outraged that he makes a hasty school-wide announcement summoning the suspect to the faculty room.
17:13Hold on a minute.
17:14Araki, by your logic, even though X wanted to apologize to Kobundo and repay them for the damage,
17:19they hoped by writing the letter that they could settle without any police involvement, right?
17:23Yeah, that makes sense.
17:25In that case, I don't think X would have indicated in their letter that they were a student at Kamiyama High, would they?
17:31So then how would the police have known to look for them here?
17:36Maybe when police asked the owners of Kobundo for a physical description of the suspect,
17:40they detailed X's clothes and police put together that it was the uniform from Kami High.
17:44That would be one possible explanation.
17:47Interesting.
17:47And if X did anything that made them stand out, it would make sense for the owners to remember details.
17:52What would make them stand out?
17:54Well, let's see.
17:55We might be able to determine the crime from that.
17:57So X behaved oddly.
17:59They did something outrageous enough to attract attention, but that's not necessarily illegal.
18:05Then X committed a crime, the nature of which is such that, without the apology level, no one would have known right away.
18:12X was consumed with regret.
18:16X's crime was serious enough that it warranted contacting law enforcement immediately.
18:20Whatever X did yesterday, it wasn't something petty like shoplifting.
18:24Then what?
18:25What?
18:29Shopping in a way that stood out.
18:35Shopping that became illegal.
18:38You said that Kobundo is a stationary store that caters to grade school kids,
18:42so it's not likely that they carry anything of much value.
18:46Shopping.
18:47Shopping.
18:48Shopping.
19:07No way.
19:09What is it?
19:10Our friend X tried to pay with a counterfeit 10,000 yen bill.
19:19But, but, but that can't be true.
19:22It's just way too far-fetched.
19:24I don't think it's realistic.
19:25It defies any sort of logic.
19:27It's a terrible theory.
19:29It's completely catastrophic.
19:30Traffic!
19:32Whoa.
19:33Hey.
19:35Calm down.
19:37This is just a game, you know?
19:43Right.
19:44I'm sorry.
19:45It's not real.
19:51Don't take it so seriously.
19:53I know, but still.
19:54It's not possible.
19:56It can't be.
19:57Why are you so sure it's impossible?
19:59It's been all over the news that someone has been trying to pass off 10,000 yen bills.
20:03That's what gave you the idea in the first place that X must be someone from our school
20:07who tried to pay with one of them yesterday, right?
20:09Yeah.
20:10But X could not have possibly gotten a hold of one of those counterfeit bills.
20:13Or even if they had, they would have realized it was fake and handed it over to the police.
20:17What makes you say that?
20:18Bear with me here.
20:20Let's say X did get a counterfeit bill.
20:22Where do you think they could have done that?
20:23From an ATM, I would imagine.
20:26Counterfeit bills that are good enough to slip past bank tellers into an ATM aren't very common.
20:31And even if by some chance that happened, the bill would be so good that X wouldn't spot it.
20:35If X was given change.
20:37Oh.
20:40That's right.
20:41You can't get 10,000 yen bills as change.
20:44Except for commemorative coins, the 10,000 is the highest note there is here.
20:48I think I see what you're getting at now.
20:50That means there's only one or two other ways in which X could have acquired a fake bill innocently.
20:56But even if we assume X's parents own their own business and had a counterfeit bill given to them without their knowledge,
21:01if X had gotten it as allowance or something, X would have had the chance to tell his or her parents it was a fake.
21:07I think you're right.
21:08And if X had earned it at a part-time job or something, they would have had a chance to turn it in then as well.
21:14Hmm.
21:16What if X found it?
21:17That would be too crazy!
21:18Yeah, someone who would find a counterfeit bill and try to pass it off as real doesn't seem like the kind to write an apology letter, do they?
21:26X probably noticed at the last minute and felt guilty as they were trying to pay with it.
21:30Without knowing how X obtained a counterfeit bill, it's impossible to say whether your deduction is realistic.
21:37Hmm.
21:40A 10,000 yen note.
21:43Chitanda, would you say that you like money?
21:47I'm not sure.
21:48I suppose it's fair to say I like it more than I dislike it.
21:51If you dropped 10,000 yen, would you miss it?
21:54Yeah, of course I would.
21:56Well, unless I knew my money wasn't the genuine article.
22:00If it was your own real money, then I bet you would miss it for sure.
22:04The reason X felt guilty, even while committing the crime, is that it was their own money, even if it was a fake.
22:09I submit that X must have gotten that bill from someone thinking it was legitimate currency.
22:15And if that wasn't from wages or allowance, there's only one other possibility.
22:19Someone gave it to them when they repaid a loan.
22:22If X had gotten the bill in that manner and discovered it was a fake, they'd have been really disappointed.
22:27That being the case, it's hard to blame them for trying to use it at a store run by an old man and woman, even if they knew it was immoral to do that.
22:33Even so, they still would have had the opportunity to turn it in and exchange it for real money.
22:40I don't know.
22:41A fake bill is like the Joker in Old Maid.
22:43No one wants to get stuck with it.
22:45You know, the longer I think about this, the more plausible it sounds to me.
22:49Hey, X, I have the money that I borrowed from you a while back.
22:52Oh, why, that's great.
22:54I appreciate it.
22:55It was 10,000 yen, right?
22:57Here you go.
22:58Yes, thank you.
22:59Then surprise, it's a fake bill.
23:02Hmm.
23:03Maybe Y, who borrowed the money from X, had seniority over X, complicating things.
23:08So X didn't feel like they could object when Y paid them back with a counterfeit note.
23:13At this point, I think it's safe to say that X is just one person.
23:16And since Kobundo is a store that sells inexpensive stationery for grade school kids,
23:20it would be weird for high schoolers to come in buying things with 10,000 yen bills.
23:25I think that wraps that up.
23:27Then there's Y.
23:29Y also came across a fake bill.
23:30It could be that Z, someone above Y, gave it to them.
23:35If we lump everyone above Y together as one collective, then who are they?
23:39A store manager somewhere with no conscience?
23:42Or the counterfeiter themselves?
23:44The police may have gotten involved at Kami in the hope that they could find out from X
23:48specifically where the counterfeit bills were originating.
23:51That's my guess.
23:52And that concludes my deduction.
24:01Hmm.
24:02After I talk for so long, it seems kind of rude for her not to respond.
24:06Whatever.
24:07Kobundo is over that way, isn't it?
24:22That's amazing.
24:24Anyone who is shopping at Kobundo near the train station on October 31st,
24:28please report to Shibazaki in the faculty room immediately.
24:31A whole story.
24:35Wow.
24:35Just from that one announcement.
24:38Yeah, that's what we came up with.
24:40Game over, I guess.
24:44Hey, Oreki.
24:45Huh?
24:46What is it?
24:47I seem to remember that we started this whole game as a way to settle an argument we were having
24:51about something.
24:52Oh.
24:53That rings a bell.
24:55Now what was it again?
24:56I can't recall.
25:00Oreki.
25:00I have an idea.
25:04Do you want to deduce what it was?
25:07Huh?
25:13Give me a break.
25:19Oh.
25:24Whoa.
25:26But that was supposed to be a game.
25:28I thought it couldn't possibly be true.
25:31Hmm.
25:33I thought it was supposed to be a game.
25:50Oh.
25:51Oh.
25:51Oh.
25:52Oh.
25:53Oh.
25:54I'm calling you the same thing.
25:57I'm calling you the same thing.
26:00I'm calling you the same thing.
26:05I'm not a fan of your own.
26:08I'm calling you the same thing.
26:13Why do you want to know?
26:17This is the color of the color of your favorite color.
26:21I'll be honest with you.
26:25Tomorrow, will I be able to change?
26:27It won't be good.
26:29The mystery of your mystery!
26:33I'll be honest with you.
26:35I'll be honest with you.
26:37I'll be honest with you.
26:40I'll be honest with you.
26:41You're the fantasy.
26:44Next time, Miss Happy New Year.
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