Analysis and Picks for Churchill Downs Race 11 Tomorrow

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00:00We move to Huge Bigley, who comes off a couple underneath performances, was third last time

00:08out at Keeneland, was fourth before that at Churchill, and he's actually been facing a

00:12little softer than most of the others in here.

00:15Any thoughts on Huge Bigley?

00:16I'm not a fan of Huge Bigley.

00:19I like the last half of this field a lot better than the first half, to be honest.

00:22I just don't think this horse is fast enough against the competition.

00:24You have to go back a year or two to find the more consistent figures that would be

00:28competitive here.

00:29One of those horses that you like is the number six, Harrow.

00:31Why don't you talk about him a little bit?

00:33Yeah.

00:34Harrow's interesting.

00:35He was claimed in April from Timothy Ham and then moved to a more successful trainer, Safi

00:38Joseph.

00:39He's been out one time for Safi and ran lifetime best figure and won.

00:43So he's a presser who I think is alive in here.

00:47He's won going longer at Kentucky Downs, so the distance should be in the problem, and

00:52he likes to be in the money quite a bit.

00:54Now Kentucky Ghost was just claimed by William Morey.

00:58So he claimed this horse for $10,000, and he's able to bring him right over into basically

01:03a stakes race and run for $175,000.

01:06What about Kentucky Ghost in here?

01:08I don't like Kentucky Ghost off of speed figures in class.

01:12However, you mentioned William Morey claimed him last out, and his win first off the claim

01:16is 37% with an over $4 ROI.

01:19So if you're seeking some kind of, if you're feeling freaky and want to seek a crazy edge,

01:23I could see playing it off that stat.

01:25So boy is a horse who's coming out of multiple graded stakes races.

01:29In fact, four starts back.

01:31He won the grade three Louisville.

01:33So I think if you're just looking on class in recent form, he's probably the horse to

01:37beat or one of the horses to beat in here, right?

01:40Yeah, I would agree with you on that, you know, I mean, it's going to be the favorite

01:42and definitely valid highest most consistent figures of anybody and the class drop is just

01:48a big plus.

01:49I try to talk you into Echo Lane a little bit.

01:51That's the number nine who will get to next and the reason why even though he's a three

01:54year old facing older, he's been facing some pretty good horses as of late, like deterministic,

01:58who's a multiple graded stakes winner, grandma, the first who's multiple graded stakes play.

02:02So I think the recent form is kind of sneaky and I like who is who he's been facing.

02:07Any thoughts on Echo Lane?

02:09Usually when you give me a horse that you like, I can see why I can find I'm just going

02:16to defer to you on because I don't want to talk you into that one.

02:19No problem.

02:20Let's get to journeyman next who comes off of a fourth place finish.

02:24But he was only beaten to half a length.

02:25He's been up at Woodbine being pretty competitive against tougher.

02:28Any quick thoughts on journeyman?

02:29Yeah, journeyman is a true journeyman.

02:30You know, this is the 10th track has run at his career.

02:34I think look to come from mid pack at this distance.

02:38He's two for six.

02:39So he's a good form.

02:41This is some tougher competition, though, of course, who I believe you like a little

02:44bit is good governance, who comes off of a fifth place finish over at Keeneland.

02:48That was the first start in a couple months.

02:50Talk to us about the 11 in here.

02:51Yeah, good governance.

02:53You know, two wins earlier this year, like I said, at Horseshoe Indy, but was out class

02:57against top for at Kentucky Downs at Keeneland.

02:59He returns to this kind of more comfortable class level, and I think we'll be on on the

03:05scene late.

03:06You see time from us has him as the best late pace rating in the field.

03:10Sanders riding against him tomorrow and has been a board on three of the last four races,

03:14including two of the wins.

03:15So we know they are good at teaming up.

03:18You round out the field with the number 12 Warrior Richard.

03:20Now, this is the body of the field because we have some also eligibles in here.

03:24Warrior Richard was a winner at Keeneland last time out in a starter allowance.

03:28It was a 50 starter allowance.

03:30The problem I had with Warrior Richard in this spot, he only has one race on the grass

03:34and it wasn't the best race.

03:36It's just that's giving up a lot of experience to these horses who are real, real proven

03:40horses on the turf.

03:41Yeah, I agree.

03:42You know, and before that one last hour was an 11 race losing streak.

03:49And I also think his preferred spot would be to kind of sit behind the speed, which

03:52might be a little bit difficult position for him to get with the post position that he's

03:57drawn.

03:58So, you know, Joe Sharp is pretty good at moving these horses from dirt to turf, but

04:03not a huge fan.

04:04There's your field for race number 11 on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

04:08Now let's go over to Alexa first.

04:10How are you going to put your selections up for race number 11?

04:13Yeah, my top selection is number 11.

04:15Good governance.

04:16I'm going to put something like this late closer in here, followed by the favorite number

04:19eight.

04:20And then I'll throw in a couple long shots with the three and the six.

04:25Yeah, we have lots of similarities with our selections.

04:28I'm going to put the nine on top.

04:30We talked about Echo Lane facing older.

04:32The eight we both have underneath.

04:34That's the horse to beat.

04:35I throw the three and the 10 as minor horses to use in your under spots.

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