- 2 days ago
Seth and Sean lay out some stats and factoids indicating the Texans are a lock this weekend against the Titans.
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00:00Factoid making the Texans a lock this weekend. I will credit the NFL Network very funny six or
00:09seven minute videos they have for each of the matchups in the NFL every week. And I don't know,
00:14I only watched the Texan one, Seth. Do you know, are they all narrated by this same guy?
00:18Yeah, he's good. He throws in a whole lot of Gen X friendly references.
00:22Really funny references.
00:23He does all of it. I think he writes all his own copy.
00:26Okay, okay.
00:26No, you know this guy. He's David Anderson's friend.
00:29Well, I know, but I don't know him. I know David Anderson.
00:33Yeah, he does all these videos. And as far as I understand it, he writes all his own copy.
00:38And he throws in a lot of Gen X jokes.
00:39I was wondering about that. I'm like, man, this guy must take a lot of time to do these
00:42because you got to splice all the highlights together and get all the stats and everything.
00:45They're really good videos. They're easy to find. If you just search the matchup,
00:49you put in Texans, Titans, matchup, NFL. It'll be one of the first ones that pops up.
00:54And they give a lot of good numbers on there. This number I loved. And this was right out of the shoot.
00:58In this game, Seth, against the Titans, Texans-Titans, Sunday, noon, Sports Radio 610,
01:05the lowest scoring offense in the NFL, the Tennessee Titans, averaging just over 14 points a game.
01:11Can you imagine watching that offense?
01:14Yeah.
01:14Is facing the number one scoring defense in the Texans. Texans are still, by a smidge,
01:21even though they gave up 29, and it wasn't all the defense's fault,
01:25they are still number one by, I think, about three or four total points over the Rams right now.
01:29So they're the number one scoring defense.
01:31The number one scoring defense, in that matchup, the last 16 times that that's happened,
01:36and this goes back to, like, merger days. Like, it goes back decades.
01:42The last 16 times that that matchup has happened, the worst scoring offense versus the best scoring defense,
01:48the defense has won 16 straight. I mean, 16 straight's kind of a surprise because it's hard to get 16 straight of anything.
01:55But, oh, you're telling me the way better team won all these times? Yeah.
01:58By an average margin, though, of nearly 20 points a game. Oh, my goodness.
02:02It's been blowouts, on average, that the number one scoring defense has beat the worst scoring offense 16 straight times.
02:09That is where sometimes when things up and down and left and right with all kinds of advanced analytics,
02:17points scored and points allowed still matters a lot.
02:20Yes.
02:21And you don't have to overly complicate things at times.
02:23That's our Gen X take on this show.
02:25This team is really good at preventing points, and this team is really bad at scoring points.
02:31Let's not overthink this or do a deep dive into all of these other things.
02:36Honestly, and this is hard for me to admit, I feel kind of bad for Titans fans right now.
02:41Oh, my God.
02:42As they sit at home trying to watch football with their first cousin, Bride,
02:47and I'm listening to the Locked On Titans podcast yesterday,
02:52and the guy was pretty funny because he's talking about how bad the Titans are on third down.
02:58Yeah.
02:58He says, well, I mean, a big part of it is you've got a rookie quarterback,
03:00and they're in third and long a lot.
03:02Yeah.
03:03It's not just that they're in third down.
03:05They're in third and long a lot.
03:06So why are they bad on third down?
03:07Because they're bad on first and second down.
03:10We know all about that.
03:11And why are they bad on first and second down?
03:12And one of the things, one of it is that they've got a rookie quarterback,
03:15and they're running out of the gun a lot on first down.
03:19And it's just not a good offense.
03:22The offensive line is underperforming to a drastic extent.
03:26And you look at the Texans and how they match up versus teams.
03:32And when they decide to stop the run or limit the run, they do a really good job of it.
03:36I think you don't have to overly complicate this.
03:39The Texans are going to shut down the run on first and second down.
03:41They're going to get into third down and long,
03:44and the Texans are one of the best third down defenses in the league.
03:46It's hard to see a way that the Titans win this game without a bunch of really weirds when the Titans won.
03:54Yeah, yeah, right, without some fluky plays.
03:56You know, I would say they've got a really good return game.
03:59Do they get some short fields on special teams?
04:01Cam Ward is 32nd in the league in passer rating, 72.1.
04:06The Texans' defense is first in passer rating allowed at 70.8.
04:09Like, this is just, this is a horrible matchup.
04:12The Titans have allowed 38 sacks.
04:14And I was reading an article yesterday, Seth, in The Athletic by, and his name escapes me,
04:18the Titans beat writer for The Athletic, just kind of summarizing Cam Ward's season so far
04:25and what the issues have been.
04:26And obviously his coach gets fired five games in and whatever.
04:29Honestly, in reading some of it, it sounds like a lot of the same stuff that the Texans
04:35have been trying to coach out of C.J. Stroud a little bit.
04:37Like, to not be so hell-bent.
04:39And C.J.'s done a good job with this.
04:40But not being so hell-bent on the big play, holding onto the ball too late.
04:44He's been sacked 38 times, but a lot of them have been Cam Ward's fault
04:48because he's trying to extend plays.
04:50He's got incredible arm talent.
04:52His first ever touchdown in the NFL was a throw that nobody should make
04:56all the way back across the field, and he had the arm talent to fit it in there.
05:02And so it's a rookie quarterback behind a bad line who's having a hard time
05:09learning how to take the easy money, is what I was reading in there.
05:12You know what?
05:13The other thing that this lockdown guy brought up was interesting
05:15because I've seen this a couple times, but I haven't watched every single Titans game.
05:20But was Cam Ward just actually bobbling the football?
05:24And almost – he was talking about him almost like a point guard who has a bad handle.
05:29That he just – he just bobbling the ball himself for losing control of it.
05:36He does have small hands.
05:37Okay, that's what I'm going to ask you.
05:38Only nine inches.
05:39I was going to ask you that, yeah.
05:40I don't know why people – for some reason, people took up hand size
05:44almost like it was like you were talking about race or ethnicity or religion or something
05:48to where now you can't talk about a guy's small hands.
05:50That's your handist if you talk about his small hands.
05:54I don't know, like I think maybe because it reached such an epic level with Kenny Pickett,
05:58who, by the way, isn't doing much as an NFL quarterback right now.
06:01Cam Ward, he's got little elfin hands and sometimes has a hard time holding on to the ball.
06:06Elfin hands.
06:06Does – doesn't Joe Burrow have small hands too?
06:09I thought.
06:10Probably.
06:11I thought Burrow had small hands.
06:13That's why he dresses so snazzy.
06:14Yeah, yeah.
06:15Now, Kenny Pickett's hands are really small, eight and a half inches.
06:17I think Cam Ward's are nine inches, which is below average, but not as small as Kenny Pickett.
06:24Okay, okay, gotcha.
06:26Let me look at Joe Burrow's hand size.
06:29Yeah, just – yeah, Google Burrow hand size.
06:31I'm curious.
06:31His are nine inches as well.
06:33Okay, yeah, so those are relatively small hands.
06:35And he managed to make it to a Super Bowl, so anything's possible in the NFL.
06:39Oh, yeah.
06:39Anything's possible.
06:40Plenty of guys who have overcome the disadvantages of small hands.
06:43The small hands.
06:44But it's still something to think about.
06:45If a guy is actively bobbling the football, you start to wonder about it.
06:49Well, and I mean –
06:50And if he's running around trying to extend plays and everything.
06:52Against the defense, it has Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter out there.
06:56Yeah.
06:56So – and defensively, boy, if I were CJ, I'd really want to get back for this game.
07:02The Titans are allowing 104.4 passer rating and 4.9 yards per carry on the ground.
07:08Texans should have a pretty good offensive day in this game too, I would say.
07:13The big question about Davis Mills is that he's had a really good half of football.
07:22Before that, it didn't look so hot.
07:24No.
07:24And what version do you get versus a bad Titans defense?
07:28And do you just – do you not put the ball in harm's way, all of that?
07:31One of the things that I was most encouraged by with Davis Mills in last week's game was his pocket presence.
07:37And some of the throws he made as guys were closing in on him, the decisions he made, when to run, when to scramble a little bit, all of those.
07:49I thought he did a good job of it.
07:50Because when he came in in the first game, I was nervous about his pocket presence.
07:54Yeah.
07:54Two weeks ago, he was – it looked like he was – at one point, he just did a full 360 to nowhere.
07:59As he was trying to spin out a way, he almost had – he's way stronger than you expect.
08:05Even though he's a big guy or something, you just don't – he stands up to contact pretty well.
08:10He's pretty sturdy.
08:11And then will scramble and continue to look to throw.
08:13Oh, yeah.
08:14So that part of it was intriguing.
08:16And Cam Ward, meanwhile, does lead the league in fumbles right now.
08:19He does.
08:20Okay, fumbles and 38 sacks.
08:22Like, I feel good about the matchup.
08:24I mean, Eureka.
08:26I feel good about the matchup for the Texans' defense in this game.
08:30But, yeah, Davis Mills, the whole, like, standing in the face of pressure, I mean, I think of both the throws to –
08:37well, especially the third and 10 to Dalton Schultz.
08:40I mean, it was just – I mean, that was – that's one of the most important plays of the year.
08:45And he's backed up into his own end zone throwing that ball.
08:47You know, that's – Davis had a – he had a nice second half, no doubt about it.
08:53And it'll – on Sunday, C.J. Stroud, no practice for him yesterday.
08:56I am – I am grateful that if C.J. can't play this week, which it looks increasingly like he won't play this week.
09:04We'll see.
09:05Today, if he doesn't practice today, there's not a chance –
09:07Mathematically, he can't.
09:08Yeah, there's not enough practice.
09:09So if he doesn't practice today, he's definitely not playing on Sunday.
09:13But it does – it does add a level of intrigue to this game where if the Texans lose this game,
09:18it's going to be a huge, huge disappointment.
09:20It's hard to get excited about the Texans facing the worst team in the NFL right now.
09:25And – but the Davis-Mills dynamic does make it a lot more interesting for me.
09:29I get – I'm genuinely excited about it.
09:32And it also helps – it also helps in my, you know, daily pick-ems and whatever that he seems to really try to get the ball to Nico Collins.
09:39That does help.
09:4015 targets.
09:41Some of Nico Collins' numbers right now, I'm looking at him a little bit differently than perhaps the way the gambling public at large is.
09:4615 targets for Nico – 15 targets for Nico and 11 targets – 11 or 12, whatever – double-digit targets for Dalton Schultz.
09:54Like, he's – as much as the rookies – I mean, he threw the ball 45 times.
09:58So there's plenty to go around.
10:01But the rookies getting involved, too.
10:03Really, really nice.
10:04Yeah, I'm looking forward to this weekend.
10:06Well, Woody Marks rushing yardage, too.
10:08Yeah.
10:08Because I think that's – I – it – we knew from the pregame interview with D'Amico Ryans that they wanted to get the ball to Woody Marks more and call plays that helped that, you know, helped suit his skill set.
10:22And that's exactly what they did versus the Jaguars.
10:25And I – as D'Amico said on the coaches' show this week, he doesn't consider those guys rookies anymore.
10:30He doesn't consider the offense, and it sounds like the coaches trust him.
10:36And they've got more explosiveness, speed, playmaking ability than other guys that have been targeted at times.
10:43So I think that's going to be a trend over the second half of the season that you can count on.
10:49They're going to get those rookies, those three rookies, more involved, more offensively.
10:51Good, good, good.
10:53Yeah, here's Nick Cayley yesterday, Texans OC, talking about Woody Marks' increased usage.
10:58Yeah, well, I think it goes with, you know, everything – you know, you go into a game and you sit there and you try to – you know, you try to have balance in a variety of ways for all the right reasons.
11:06And sometimes, you know, you get into a rhythm and he played well and he was playing well down the stretch.
11:10I think they both complement him and Nick both complement each other.
11:12So he did well.
11:14You know, it's hard to say how every game's going to go.
11:16Sometimes it doesn't go the way you want it to.
11:18But he did a great job and, you know, I thought played consistent throughout the game and happy with his performance.
11:23Yeah, for sure.
11:23This felt more intentional than just, hey, he's the hot hand and you get a feel in the game.
11:28Because Woody Marks, if I'm not mistaken, was the named starter in this game.
11:32He was the starter.
11:33And I know that, you know, guys rotate and this and that.
11:36Like, I don't think that's insignificant that he was bumped up to starting in this game.
11:40And the amount, like, the lopsidedness of the usage, which I think benefits Nick Chubb.
11:48Look, I know Nick Chubb's here on a low-level one-year deal.
11:52Like, even in Nick Chubb's heart of hearts, I don't think he thought he was going to come here, rush for 1,400 yards and get another $12 million a year contract.
11:59This might be the perfect role for Nick Chubb, getting about five, six, seven carries a game.
12:05He was fresh legs at the end of that game.
12:08He did almost all of his damage on the last couple of drives.
12:13Yeah.
12:13And he was out there.
12:14He, I think he wanted to make it through this season healthy.
12:17Yeah.
12:17And maybe get better as the season goes along.
12:21And five to ten snaps per game right now feels about right for him.
12:25It feels like we're still in a very precarious situation because you feel good about the way they're using Nick Chubb.
12:30You feel good about the upside of Woody Marks.
12:32If one of those guys gets injured, I don't feel nearly as good, obviously.
12:36But Woody Marks and pass protection.
12:38There was that one play.
12:39It was a play where Davis Mills ended up scrambling off to the right and just kind of throwing the ball on a maybe throw down the right sideline.
12:46But Woody Marks, they started at the 20-yard line about.
12:52Woody Marks picks up a blitzing defensive back at the 15-yard line and then drives him into the end zone.
13:00Yeah, dude.
13:00He rode him into the bullpen.
13:02Yeah.
13:03Yeah.
13:03It was awesome.
13:05And he said it.
13:06Usually you're watching Trevor Penning bulldoze a defensive back and people saying like, oh, look at Trevor Penning.
13:11Yeah.
13:11No, no.
13:12This was a running back doing a Trevor Penning.
13:14Yeah, and not even like a big bulky running back either.
13:18I mean, Woody Marks, not small, but he's not a monster of a man either.
13:21And there's times, too, in pass protection where he's doing a good job going up and taking the fight to the blitzer.
13:27Yes.
13:27Because that's key for running backs.
13:29It's if you sit back there three yards away from the running back and any blitzer, defensive back, linebacker especially, comes at you,
13:35you get trucked right into the quarterback's lap.
13:38Woody does a really good job of identifying and just going and attacking the mic.
13:42And he's just way further along than most rookie running backs are with that.
13:47Yeah.
13:47Here's one more from Nick Caley on what have you seen from Woody Marks?
13:50Yeah.
13:51I mean, just consistency, not just as a runner.
13:55I mean, obviously, he can catch the ball, but blitz pickup, you know, he'll put his face on guys and be physical.
14:00And that's a big part of what we ask those guys to do.
14:02So it's just a complete package and just continuing to get better and learning from things as we go.
14:05And there's plenty to learn from, too, as we get going.
14:08The other thing about that game when it comes to pass protection and blitz pickup is the offensive line.
14:14I think this entire season they've steadily looked better and better compared to last year when it comes to picking up games and blitzes and everything else.
14:22This last week, I thought there were a few snaps of them doing it almost picture perfect.
14:29And that's with a disheveled, rejiggered offensive line with a couple of backups playing.
14:36But, I mean, Ariante Urshry might have had the best game of any of the offensive linemen.
14:39Dude.
14:39And he's going against the guy in Josh Hines-Alan who made him look extremely like a rookie in week three.
14:45Yeah, that was the best part is he was going against the guy who you had already seen him.
14:49Hadn't played many games, Urshry, but he's going against the guy that you've seen him fail against earlier this year.
14:54And then he has really good success against him.
14:56Yeah, Kaylee was actually asked about Urshry yesterday as well.
15:00Yeah, I think he's in a good place.
15:01I really do.
15:02I think he's continued to show toughness.
15:04He cares.
15:05He wants to get better.
15:06He works at it.
15:07Same thing that has been the case since we got him here right after the draft.
15:10Just obviously with more reps and now he's got some more games under his belt.
15:14But I think he's playing good football.
15:16I mean, he's playing tough.
15:17He's playing disciplined football in terms of alignment and leverage and those type of things.
15:22Hand usage is getting better.
15:23So he's got to continue on that track.
15:26He's conscientious of that.
15:27And I think that Cole and Zach do a really good job with those guys.
15:33I'm pleased with him.
15:34I really am.
15:36He still has a lot of technical things to clean up.
15:39And a lot of it probably won't happen until the offseason.
15:42Because he is a long guy.
15:45He's big and he's heavy.
15:47He's tall.
15:48And there's times where he still looks like a guy that got away with poor technique in college.
15:53Kind of leaning into guys and just bending at the waist.
15:58He's improved.
16:00But some of that, he needs a real full offseason to really, now that he understands the downside of it,
16:06to really get it right, the part about that that I feel good about is that he does have really good weight room strength.
16:13He's not like one of these tall guys that's just kind of there and isn't going to be capable of playing with better knee bend and everything.
16:21I think he's very much capable of it.
16:23He just needs to really drill it, drill it, drill it.
16:25That play that Woody Marks, it was a third and three.
16:28We talked about it yesterday.
16:29Third and three on one of the final drives.
16:32Might have been the final drive where they give the ball to Woody Marks on, you know, stretching it out to the left side.
16:38And they've got Ursary pulling out that way as his one-man convoy in front of him.
16:44Going and watching that play, like that was a play that popped as you and I are watching it in the stadium.
16:49They're like, holy cow, look at that big guy run right there.
16:52I'm sure Laramie had plays like that, I'm guessing.
16:54But whenever I think of Laramie, I always think of him more in the pass pro stuff than I do stuff like that.
16:59Like Ursary was thirsting and looking for somebody to bury on that play.
17:04Laramie more times than not, you'd see him out in space and you'd think, why is the most athletic on the team not hitting anybody at all?
17:17He was awful as a run blocker in space.
17:19To a point where it just didn't make any sense given how athletic he was.
17:24And that's always been the thing with, that was always the thing with Laramie Tunsil.
17:28It's that he was a reluctant run blocker.
17:31And on screens, same thing, just wouldn't touch people.
17:34Ursary looks like he understands the assignment.
17:37And all those people that would love to show Laramie Tunsil's PFF grade and pass protection would curiously ignore his overall grade.
17:47Which would put him as maybe slightly above average overall as an offensive tackle.
17:52Yeah, he's an awesome pass protector.
17:54But for a team that wants to run the ball 40-50% of the time, that's a pretty big chunk of play.
17:59Yes, it is.
18:00You know, so who Laramie Tunsil is overall as an offensive tackle, you can't just completely ignore the run blocking.
18:06Yep.
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