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00:11Good morning. Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, May 22nd, the beginning of
00:19Memorial Day weekend. We have with us Don Day, our weather mystic. On more than half a dozen
00:28weather forecasts and climate forecasts that Don made more than six months ago, it turns out he's
00:35spot on on all of them. He's hitting so far 100%. Isaac Issa is with us, our logistics maven,
00:44and he's going to be giving us the latest on hauling activity and costs. And our chief
00:50economist, Bob Janetsky, will discuss where we are and where we will be once a couple of wars
00:57are settled. Okay, Don, what kind of relief has the South gotten from their drought?
01:04They've gotten some good relief and there's more coming. In fact, we had some flooding in Atlanta
01:08this week. So Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi. Is flooding a good thing? Well, when you're a drought.
01:19Okay. You know, we're concerned about the farmers, you know, those city folks, if they get flooded
01:24out, not a big deal. In fact, I don't know if you heard that Waymo, those automatically driving cars,
01:30you know, where there's no driver, you just get in. Yeah. They drove full speed into the flooded
01:36streets of Atlanta. So that caused quite a stir. So note to self, if there's heavy rain in the
01:43forecast, don't take a Waymo. But yeah, there's relief coming to the South, really needed. And it's
01:50going to be wet in the South Central and the Southeastern parts of the United States over the
01:56coming days. We've had temperatures all over the place. We had a heat wave in the Northeast,
02:01the Mid-Atlantic here this week. At the same time, it snowed again in the Rockies. And temperatures all
02:07over the place. But that's spring. But next week...
02:10Well, I was wondering about whether or not I should go back to my winter hat. But go ahead.
02:15Yeah, keep it handy. You know, what's going to develop next week in the first week of June is
02:20finally, we're going to finally get into a summer pattern that's going to be a bit more consistent.
02:25With that will be severe weather. You'll be hearing about severe weather in the Southern Plains,
02:30Western areas of the High Plains. But that's exactly what you'd expect as you go into this time of
02:35year. Okay. I understand there's another wildfire in California. Yeah, big surprise. Wildfire in
02:43California. This is usually a dry time of year for California. And they're starting into the
02:49beginnings of the summer season very dry. Now, California, in an El Nino pattern, is going to get
02:56wet again. But that's going to come later, most likely as we get into fall and winter. So wildfire
03:04concerns will be with us all summer along the West Coast. Okay. With all the talk going on in Iran,
03:10the U.S. may be starting up air operations again. What does the weather look like in Iran for that?
03:16I don't see the weather as being much of a factor. You know, not much of a factor as it
03:21was,
03:21you know, four or eight weeks ago when there was a lot more action going on. That time of year,
03:28in that part of the country, they're getting into summer. So there's less one.
03:31So this would be good for air operations. Yeah. Okay. Isaac Issa, autonomous trucks,
03:40are they going to, are they gaining in the marketplace? And are they going to drive into
03:45flooded areas? Oh, I hope they don't drive into flooded areas, that's for sure. But they're
03:50definitely gaining in the marketplace. The industry is moving from pilots to very early commercial
03:55deployment, but still not mainstream yet. But there are companies like Aurora, Kodiak are some
04:02of the more notable companies experimenting with the driverless trucks, but still limited to certain
04:08highways, certain freight routes like Dallas to El Paso, low density where, you know, weather's
04:13predictable. And plus he got strong support out of Texas. So that's where you see a lot of this
04:18activity, but it's definitely growing. Are you going to be looking at them? Not yet. Not yet.
04:24There's too much uncertainty on a, on a national level right now, but it's absolutely gaining market
04:28share. The industry right now, it's about a 45 to 50, 45 to $50 billion industry. We're expecting
04:36this to hit a hundred billion a year and the next five to seven years. What's happening with
04:41regulations of autonomous trucks? It's a lot of power to be, not have a driver on. It's a lot of
04:47weight.
04:48Well, that's the big piece, right? The public, you know, once they start seeing 80,000 pound
04:52vehicles driving down our highways here with no driver behind it, you know, it's definitely going
04:57to stir some emotions and that's the main bottleneck right now, but it is loosening up,
05:02Gary, state by state, not federally unified just yet, but states like Texas, Arizona, some of the more
05:08permissive states where most of the heavier testing is being done. But even California, who's historically
05:14strict are now allowing heavy duty autonomous truck testing deployment under their new 2026 rules.
05:22Are these things safe?
05:26If you, if you look at the testing, right, they say they're much safer than, than your, than your
05:31human counterpart. They don't get tired. They don't get distracted. They're not impaired.
05:34They can run longer, 20 to 24 hours a day, more consistent driving behavior.
05:39So, uh, it's all about, uh, the testing and the testing is saying, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. I believe
05:46the big question is going to be, well, the big question is, and will only continue to be, you know,
05:52liability. Who's going to be responsible in the event of a major accident? Is it going to be the
05:56carrier, the software company, or the OEM?
05:59Hey, Isaac, I got a question. So getting from point A to point B, I could see, but what about
06:06delivery, just delivering the product? How does that work with the automation?
06:10It's not going to, yeah, it's going to be middle miles. It's going to be, you know,
06:14you got to have, I'll give you a quick example, right? You pick up, you have your local human
06:18truck driver pick up out of the Long Beach port, right? Take it out of the Metro where then a
06:23truck
06:24will take on a self-driving truck will then pick it up in straight, you know, drive down I-10
06:30for a
06:30thousand miles and wherever it's final destination, that's where the handoff will be. So this is
06:36very specific to what we call in the business, middle mile transportation.
06:41Okay.
06:41Isaac, one of our optimists, isn't he going to be at the end of the thing to unload?
06:46Yes, yes, he will be. Yes.
06:50So yeah, again, definitely a lot of concern about, you know, what happens next. But I will tell you
06:55this, with all the regulation hitting our industry, rightful regulation between the double log books,
07:02the non-domiciled, it's eliminating a tremendous amount of capacity where these autonomous trucks
07:07are going to be, they're going to be key to moving product in our nation here in the next five
07:12to 10
07:12years.
07:14Bob Janetsky, the stock market keeps on moving higher. What are your thoughts as to why?
07:20Well, I think the main reason is that we've had really blockbuster profits come out in the first
07:29quarter. The increase over the past year was supposed to be something like 17%. That's what
07:36the analysts were projecting. That's a big increase. They came out right now, it looks like the S&P 500
07:43is
07:4327% above a year ago in terms of the profits. So the earnings have been spectacular. And secondly,
07:52as far as Iran goes, the investors have continued to assume that this thing is going to end successfully,
08:00that Trump knows what he's doing. That again, we have to wait and see. But that's what the stock
08:06market investors are assuming.
08:09Where are interest rates now versus the beginning of the year, the pre-Iran war?
08:16The long-term rates are up about a half a percentage point from where they were. So it's a jump.
08:22But as
08:23you've pointed out a couple of times, if you look back historically, they're still relatively low
08:28historically. So they're up. And that's mainly due to the war, at least in my judgment. If the war were
08:36to go badly, and we're going to see these oil prices and inflation stay up longer, then those
08:42rates will go a lot higher than they are right now, at least another half to a full percentage point.
08:49But the fact that they haven't gone higher tells me that just as in the stock market, the bond market
08:56investors believe that this inflation is temporary, and things are going to come back down as soon as it's
09:03over.
09:04Yeah, from an historic point of view, you know, in terms of mortgage rates being at
09:09six and a half percent or under, these are historically, they're low rates. They're not
09:14as good as the three or the 3% we saw a couple years ago. But historically, they're wonderful.
09:21Absolutely.
09:22And the rates would be higher if the market thought that we really had an inflation issue.
09:28Yeah, and that's, of course, a problem. If the war doesn't get resolved, and we continue to see
09:33disruption in terms of worldwide shipping, we continue to see oil prices in the vicinity of 100,
09:40maybe higher, then these interest rates would continue to rise. I don't see that happening.
09:49I'm with the rest of the investors. I'm assuming that Trump knows what he's doing. And he's going to
09:55be very successful in terms of resolving this issue.
09:58What's our timeline, Bob? What do you think in terms of if fuel stays elevated the way it is,
10:05how much, I guess, how much more, is it weeks, months before there's real economic damage here?
10:11No one really knows. And that's the real puzzle. But the markets are suggesting, you know, it's going
10:18to be maybe another two, two weeks, three weeks, something like that. But no longer than that.
10:24It's not going to be two months before something gets resolved. At least that's where the market is
10:29right now. Obviously, no one knows that. If we go back a month or two, most of the markets were
10:37assuming this thing would be resolved sooner. It hasn't been. Things have carried on. And we've
10:42gotten a little worse in terms of oil prices and interest rates and gas prices. But no one really
10:48knows. It's, you know, I think, as I wrote my weekly report today, Trump has essentially two
10:54choices to make right now. Now that the Aitola has basically said, no, we're going to keep the
11:01uranium. You're not going to get the uranium that you want. And so Trump can either pause and wait
11:11and allow the Iran economy to totally collapse, in which case, hopefully we get some people who are
11:20willing to make a better deal. Or he can send in the military and just wipe out whatever ability
11:28they have to continue to create terror in the neighborhood and for the United States. So those
11:35are the two choices. Now, why do I say he can pause? I think he can pause because I think
11:41he's got
11:41information that we might not have about what is happening in Iran. At least I hope that's the case.
11:47And so his pause is not out of weakness, it's out of strength. But that remains to be seen. We're
11:53all
11:53speculating about what's going on there. Don, Bob, there seems to be some talk about the Fed
12:01is actually thinking about increasing interest rates. What do you think?
12:05Well, I think the first of all, we have to understand that the Fed artificially sets
12:13short-term interest rates. It doesn't like them go where the market wants them to go.
12:19But however, they don't control long-term interest rates. And the more they control
12:23short-term interest rates, the more they distort what's happening in the long term.
12:28So I don't pay a whole lot of attention to what the Fed decides to do in that short-term
12:33interest
12:34rate. What they should do, in my judgment, is to focus on the amount of money in the system and
12:41let the interest rates adjust to markets. They don't do that. They try to play games like the
12:46communists do with the prices in Russia, or as they used to do when the communists had control of
12:52Russia. So what is the Fed going to do? I really don't know. It didn't work well for them.
12:56What I'd like to see them do is control money. Make sure there's not too much money or not a
13:01little money, and let the markets determine where interest rates should go, both in the short-term
13:07and long-term. And they get themselves into a lot of trouble when they decide to manipulate rates
13:12artificially and either lower them or raise them. But unfortunately, that's what they plan to do.
13:18I don't think they're going to raise them. I think they're going to keep them stable at this
13:22current time. But they sometimes in the past made very foolish decisions. And I wouldn't deny that
13:29they might try and do that again. Okay. Guys, our question for the day. Will the Chicago Bears stay
13:37in Chicago or leave? Isaac? Oh, they're leaving. They're going to Arlington Knights, Gary. It's a bad
13:44stadium. They're not going to go to Indiana? They're not going to Indiana. I don't think so.
13:48Don Day, what do you think? And do you care? I don't really care. However, I do. I will agree
13:54with Isaac. I mean, everybody's got to have a shiny new multi-billion dollar stadium these days.
14:02Bob. I couldn't care less. Where do they play that game?
14:09The fact of the matter is, I really could care less either, which I think is also a sign of
14:14the
14:15Economic Times. I think it's a sign that we're never going to turn this podcast group into a
14:21sports podcast. Okay, guys. With that, have a great weekend. Stay safe. Have a nice Memorial Day.
14:35And God bless America.
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