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00:11Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, May 1st, 2026. May 1st is May Day,
00:21and a celebration of the founding and the success of communism. Funny,
00:28no one is celebrating that these days. In fact, the Soviet tradition of the annual military May Day
00:35parade has been stopped, maybe because they're not doing so well and their equipment isn't so good,
00:41but actually they stopped that back in 1990, but nobody really noticed. Now we have the Strait of
00:48Hormuz traffic remains at a standstill while the blockade has halted shipping to and from Iran,
00:56which is costing the Iranian government almost $500 million per day. The Iranian economy is
01:04drying up like a prune, and apparently the stock markets believe it. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 keeps
01:12on hitting record highs. Good morning and welcome back our certified weather maven, Don Day, who was
01:19going to tell us what is coming. Hey, Don, I'm wearing my spring summer hat today. Is it okay?
01:25No, in fact, by you wearing the spring summer hat has jinxed us because you're going to want to put
01:30the felt hat back on. Okay.
01:34So, Don, it's not your fault. It's Gary's fault we have this term.
01:38It's totally Gary's fault.
01:39Is this more seasonally appropriate?
01:41Yeah, I'm not superstitious. Just a little stitious, as they say.
01:46Okay, so, Don, you're saying it's cold. You're saying cold, you say.
01:51Yeah.
01:51How cold? And when will it end?
01:54We're looking at some pretty cool weather now for a lot of part of the nation, but it's going to
01:59get
01:59colder again as we get into next week. When I look at the weather charts, it looks like something I
02:06would see in January or February, the way the jet stream's behaving. So, we're going to see another
02:10push of colder air coming in that's going to be rather persistent.
02:15January or February?
02:17Yeah, in terms of the way the weather patterns are behaving. Yeah, totally out of whack. Now,
02:22I don't see a deep freeze getting too far south into the U.S., but, you know, the northern plains,
02:27northern Great Lakes will go below freezing. We're probably going to see snow potentially in
02:32Denver or, you know, part of the west as we get into the early and middle parts of next week.
02:37So,
02:38we're not jumping in the summer out of spring by any means.
02:41We're talking about snow in May?
02:44Yes, in some of the northern plain states, yes.
02:48Wow. What happened to global warming?
02:51It's taking a break. It's in a blockade. It's been blockaded.
02:56Okay. Is there any relief for the drought and the fires in the southeast?
03:02Yeah, good news down there. They did pick up some rain in Georgia, parts of Florida,
03:06in the Delta region that really could use some rain. And there's more on the way. And, you know,
03:11I think the worst is over for those folks because the developing El Nino tends to bring additional rain
03:18to the south. And I see that developing as we get into May, June, and July.
03:23Okay. Isaac Esau, our logistics specialist, is missing in action today. He was unavoidably
03:35distracted. We'll see him next week. In the meantime, Dr. Bob, boy, I love your smile, Bob.
03:42Yeah. You are always happy like the cat that swallowed the canary.
03:48Great time for you.
03:49Got a question for you. What?
03:52Got a question for you, Bob.
03:54Yeah.
03:56Fuel supplies are high. There's no shortage. Why are fuel supplies, I mean, why are fuel prices
04:05running so high? Those are fuel supplies in the U.S. And the oil markets usually are based
04:16on world conditions. And the world conditions, there is a shortage relative to what existed before.
04:22So that sends the world price up. And so long as we have a market economy, we have to pay
04:28the world
04:28price. It doesn't make any difference that we can supply ourselves, all of our needs, with all that.
04:38The prices are set on the world market. And the world market is in terrible shape right now
04:44because there's been an abrupt cutoff in supply. And the ones who depend upon it most,
04:49namely the European countries and China, are the ones that are getting hit the worst.
04:55I know our prices are painful. I just filled up my car yesterday. And I was shocked at what it
05:02costs to fill up a car now. And we're getting notices from people who we have contracts with
05:10that starting in May, there's a 3% surcharge on all bills because of the oil.
05:19All bills? What kind of bills are you talking about?
05:24Well, if you have, for example, monthly bills for services, a lot of the people are sending
05:30notices that there's going to be a surcharge, 3%. They're saying they can't afford to comply
05:36with the service agreements that they've agreed.
05:38You mean like lawn chair and that sort of thing? Plumbers?
05:42Because conditions have changed.
05:45Sure. At any rate. But basically, to answer your question, it's a world, the global market and the
05:52global market is strained. And that's why the prices are high, even though we're producing an
05:57awful lot of oil.
05:58So basically, Don, we've had a cold, the Germans have had a cold winter, and they've compounded
06:05their situation with erroneous energy policies where they've dried up their own energy sources.
06:14They've destroyed their own nuclear power plants. They're now starting to bring back coal-fired power
06:20plants. And now that's been a cold winter. So Bob, we're paying the price in part for German policy
06:28stupidity. Sure.
06:31And the same thing is happening in California. Their gasoline prices are now hitting eight and nine
06:37bucks. But again, it's the world market that's driving this.
06:42Okay. In the meantime, the stock markets are hitting record highs. What does your model show for the
06:49near term and why is that happening? The model has, you know, it turned positive on the basis of
06:55short-term momentum back on April 8th on the daily basis. Now, we look at it daily, but we also
07:02look
07:03at it over a seven-day, five-day period. And the seven-day average turned positive just a day later.
07:11When there is a settlement in Iran, what will happen to fuel prices, inflation, the economy,
07:16and the stock markets?
07:17Well, they will drop immediately. As a matter of fact, there was a couple of signs that we would
07:21have a settlement. And when those signs appeared, we did see very sharp declines in oil prices.
07:28But because that settlement did not really hold, we saw the prices go back up. So the moment that
07:36there's a settlement, and I expect that it's going to happen sooner as opposed to later,
07:41we can expect a sharp decline in oil prices. And this is what's being assumed by investors.
07:47When we see stock prices continuing to climb, that's an assumption on the part of investors
07:53that this thing is not going to last very long.
07:56And what will happen to the economy and the stock market?
07:59Well, I think it will soar. There are lots of things that are occurring that I wrote about in
08:04my weekly report that are very positive that occurred in March. We're seeing some real surges
08:10in new orders for investment. If we look at the stable number without defense orders,
08:17which go up and down, and without aircraft orders, which are very large. If we look at all the new
08:23orders other than those, we have a 14% increase at an annual rate in the past six months. We
08:30have a 47%
08:31annual rate rise in the three months ending March. This is very strong investment that's occurring.
08:38We're also starting to see some encouraging signs on employment, like jobs between mid-March and
08:44mid-April, according to an ADP report. And they process an awful lot of workplace business.
08:54They see that the new job numbers are going to be like 150,000 created during that period. So I
09:03think
09:03we're on the verge of seeing some very positive signs in the domestic economy.
09:10I think that's good news. I absolutely agree with you. Now for our question of the day or the week,
09:16will the Republicans hold the House in the midterms? Polymarket says there's only a 16% chance.
09:24Don, what do you think?
09:26You know, I think there's better than a 50-50 chance. You know, I would say it's a coin flip.
09:31I
09:31think a lot depends on gas prices and getting the Saran thing completed so we don't go into the
09:39midterms with $5 gasoline. Bob, what's your take? If the vote we're taking today, I would say the odds
09:47are very heavily we will not see the Republicans rewind the House. However, assuming as I am,
09:54that we're going to have a settlement, that the prices for gas and oil are going to come
09:59crashing down, I would say my bet now is that yes, we will maintain the House majority.
10:07Okay, my bet, we forecast that the Republicans were going to retain the House and the Senate,
10:14and we made that forecast back in October, excuse me, November of 2024, not 25. We are still,
10:22I am still sticking with that. I think the Republicans are going to retain the House and
10:28the Senate and could even get a nice lead in the House, assuming that the redistricting in certain
10:35states actually occurs. With that, I want to say thank you to everybody. Be well. We'll see you next
10:40week. Stay safe and God bless America.
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