- 3 months ago
Join the TDN Writers’ Room team as they go head-to-head in a handicapping contest for this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Bill Finley, Zoe Cadman and Randy Moss break down two days of world class racing in Del Mar.
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00:00:00For the love of the worse, for generations to come.
00:00:23Welcome to another edition of the TDN Writer's Room Podcast, and a special one.
00:00:32It'll be all about the Breeders' Cup, and our team will be giving you our picks in all
00:00:36other races.
00:00:37First of all, I want to give a shout out to both Zoe and Randy.
00:00:41We are recording this at 8.30 Eastern Time in the East Coast.
00:00:47That means these two guys are up at 5.30 in the morning.
00:00:51Unbelievable dedication to the TDN Podcast.
00:00:55Thank you both.
00:00:56Oh, that's nice.
00:00:57See these bags?
00:00:58These bags under my eyes.
00:00:59Yeah, I'm already exhausted.
00:01:01Randy Moss, NBC Sports.
00:01:03I apologize.
00:01:05Zoe and I are at one of the most scenic venues in all of American racing, certainly Del Mar,
00:01:11Santa Anita.
00:01:12It's just beautiful scenery everywhere out here.
00:01:14But it's 5.30 in the morning.
00:01:16It's dark.
00:01:17So we're inside just with bare walls.
00:01:20She's got a mirror, at least.
00:01:21I've got just a bare wall behind me.
00:01:23So sorry for the ugly backdrop.
00:01:27Zoe Kavman here with First TV and First Racing.
00:01:30The person you just saw in the mirror there was Michelle Yu.
00:01:33Michelle's actually been up and gone for a run this morning.
00:01:36Oh, my goodness.
00:01:37Before she gets to the track.
00:01:38So I have Michelle here.
00:01:40Randy has Jerry sitting in the corner over there waiting for him, and we're ready to roll.
00:01:45Yeah.
00:01:45Zoe, if you ever see me running down the street, call the police.
00:01:48Someone is behind me, and they're packing.
00:01:53All right.
00:01:54So here's what we're going to do, guys.
00:01:56We're going to develop.
00:01:57The theme is going to be the Breeders' Cup picks.
00:02:00We've got four segments.
00:02:02We'll take one at a time.
00:02:03Start off with the Friday races and try to get those all done in one segment.
00:02:09We start off with the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Phillies Turf Sprint.
00:02:12And I am going to pick all European horses in grass races.
00:02:17I've just seen too much of these horses, how well they do.
00:02:20Even though Americans have not done that badly in this race, they've won four of seven.
00:02:27But True Love looks like the winner to me, coming off a filly, coming off a win in the
00:02:31grade one Chevrolet Park stakes, before that second in the Phoenix stakes against the boys.
00:02:37I think this is the best of the O'Brien horses.
00:02:41And I think that Aiden O'Brien is going to have, as you guys mentioned last week, Aiden O'Brien
00:02:46looks like he can have a huge day on opening day.
00:02:49Also, I think I have a little look to Cy Fair, another filly by Not This Time.
00:02:55She beat boys last time out in the stake up at Woodbine.
00:02:58She's very consistent, trained by turf sprint master, George Weaver.
00:03:03I think she'll give a good account of herself.
00:03:05So I'm going to start off here with a theme that I'm going to try to continue throughout
00:03:09the picks here.
00:03:10I'm not going to try to beat all of them, but try to beat the favorites.
00:03:14Okay?
00:03:14Aiden O'Brien's loaded, but the post-position draw slapped him in the face.
00:03:17It really, really hindered some of O'Brien's horses, and we'll be talking about that.
00:03:23True Love is definitely the horse to beat.
00:03:25To me, this race on paper is dominated by the Phillies.
00:03:30I mean, you've got four of them in here.
00:03:31Any one of them whom have a great chance to win, not just True Love, but you've got the
00:03:35American pair of Lin-Alu and Cy Fair, who both look great when you watch their races on
00:03:41video, and then Havana Anna, the other European for, I think, Donica O'Brien.
00:03:45So I'm going to go with Lin-Alu.
00:03:49I think what's going to happen in here is Schwarzenegger blasts off to set the pace.
00:03:54It's Wesley Ward, who obviously does very well with turf sprinters, and Schwarzenegger at
00:03:59five-eighths of a mile is going to be very fast.
00:04:01But I think Lin-Alu's quick, too, and she's just outside of Schwarzenegger, and I think
00:04:06she'll probably be sitting in second just as Schwarzenegger's outside.
00:04:09She'll have first run on him.
00:04:12True Love beater at Royal Ascot.
00:04:15But for the price, I think Lin-Alu's going to be a pretty nice, you know, six to one,
00:04:20maybe.
00:04:20I'll take Lin-Alu.
00:04:22All right, Lenny Lu.
00:04:24I'm actually all hail Bill, choosing a Euro to kick off our biggest cup.
00:04:31I'm like, well done.
00:04:33And it's cheaply dark.
00:04:35So I'm actually, I'm going to be a chalk-eating weasel.
00:04:37I am going to stay with True Love from the Nine Hall.
00:04:40She's so much the best, it's not even funny.
00:04:42And I'm hoping people get off her and we get a little bit more of a prize.
00:04:45I think it's Aiden won, too.
00:04:47True Love gets the best draw, but I like Brussels in here as well.
00:04:51John Dan on the inside with Sumion, who's riding like a teenager.
00:04:56He's riding like a phenom.
00:04:58Just got beat a nose last time out.
00:05:00She's run very, very well.
00:05:02He, he's the son of the late, great Wooten Bassett.
00:05:05So he gets a good draw and I'm going to go Aiden won two in here.
00:05:09Zoe, you just said he got a good draw.
00:05:11A lot of people would disagree with you, thinking the one post is not the place to be five furlongs on the turf.
00:05:17Those are the Americans.
00:05:19The Euros know the shortest way around is on the rail.
00:05:23So every Euro will be begging for the rail in a turf race.
00:05:28The Americans are scared of the one hole.
00:05:29I don't know why they shouldn't be, but apparently they are.
00:05:33I don't disagree with you, by the way.
00:05:36All right.
00:05:36So go to the second race on Friday.
00:05:39It's the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Phillies.
00:05:42I got a little bit of a wise guy.
00:05:43I don't know if it's a wise guy pick or not, but I'm looking back at the Alcibiades stakes where Tommy Joe was two to five, was supposed to win the race.
00:05:51And even though she got put up through disqualification, I thought Percy's Bar was the best horse in the race.
00:05:58I don't think there was any chance Tommy Joe was going to get by her.
00:06:01Now, Tommy Joe is seven to two in the morning line.
00:06:03I think might go a little lower than that.
00:06:06Percy's Bar is nine to two.
00:06:08Why don't I take the better price on the horse that was the best horse in the Alcibiades?
00:06:14Tommy Joe, I don't know what to make of her.
00:06:17Spinaway was fantastic.
00:06:18The Alcibiades, even though she was put up through disqualification, was not a particularly impressive effort on her part.
00:06:26I don't really know what to do with Baffert, with Explora.
00:06:29The horse ran very well last time out to win the Oak Leaf, but in the time before, got beat by Battle of Rouge in the Del Mar Debutant.
00:06:36So, excuse me, Bottle of Rouge.
00:06:38So I'm going to, you know, use Bottle of Rouge in my Xacta and Trifecta plays as well.
00:06:43But I think Percy's Bar is being a little bit underrated because of the kind of hype around Tommy Joe.
00:06:49Well, Bill, I can't disagree with you.
00:06:52My only problem with Percy's Bar is I'm worried about the bounce factor.
00:06:58That was such a monster race for her not that long ago on the 3rd of October.
00:07:02She shipped across the country.
00:07:05That's just what I'm thinking.
00:07:06I actually have not laid eyes on her on the racetrack.
00:07:10Hopefully I get to perhaps this morning or tomorrow.
00:07:13So I'd really, maybe I'll change my mind.
00:07:15I'd like to.
00:07:16Sorry, I'm sorry.
00:07:17Oh, Michelle's yelling from the bathroom.
00:07:19She looks good.
00:07:20She saw her yesterday.
00:07:21So that's a thumbs up for you, Bill.
00:07:24Percy's Bar looks good.
00:07:26I'm sticking with Explorer, a.k.a. Blame Kate.
00:07:30I think she's the best filly in here.
00:07:33Tommy Joe looks great.
00:07:34I'm not worried about the bounce factor with her because she didn't run fast enough to bounce in the Alcibiades.
00:07:40And it would not surprise me if Tommy Joe could come back and just lay all over this field.
00:07:47She's only got one way to go.
00:07:49She's a high energy filly and she looks great.
00:07:51But I'll take Explorer on top.
00:07:55I think Explorer is definitely the horse to beat.
00:07:58Definitely the horse to beat.
00:07:59Bob sounds like in talking to Baffert, he thinks Explorer might be his best chance to win.
00:08:03And he's kind of loaded in the Breeders' Cup.
00:08:06Tommy Joe, to me, doesn't want to go that far.
00:08:09She was very keen early in the Alcibiades.
00:08:13She trains that way, apparently, in the morning, according to Todd.
00:08:16She's extremely aggressive when she trains.
00:08:20You know, I asked Todd, is the key going to be getting her to switch off early in the race and settle?
00:08:25And he said she's not a switch off type of filly.
00:08:28So, yeah, I'm concerned about the mile on the 16th, especially an honestly paced mile on the 16th.
00:08:35And so, you know, I think Tommy Joe's a horse to take a stand against.
00:08:39In my trend of trying to go against the favorite here on paper and visually, to me, the two best horses in the race were Explorer and Iron Orchard.
00:08:49I love the way Iron Orchard and the Frisette broke well, eased back, got shuffled back even farther, came around outside and wound up winning anyway.
00:09:00She draws post one.
00:09:01She's going to be probably eight to one.
00:09:04She's going to sit on the inside.
00:09:06She's not going to be very far off the pace at all.
00:09:08A great position.
00:09:09And so I'll take Iron Orchard as an upsetter over Explorer at the price.
00:09:15And she looks really good out here.
00:09:17She's actually I feel that she's put on weight since she's shipped out here.
00:09:21So I give her a big thumbs up, too.
00:09:23Not too much weight.
00:09:25Not too much weight.
00:09:26No, not too much.
00:09:28Randy, here's my knock on Iron Orchard, who recently sold for two point five million dollars.
00:09:33I thought the Frisette was a very weak race.
00:09:36Now, you're right that she had a, you know, a nice performance in there.
00:09:40But I can't see anybody coming out of that race and doing much.
00:09:44Are you lumping the Frisette in with the poor old Remsen?
00:09:48With the Remsen?
00:09:50Yeah.
00:09:50What the heck does the Frisette have to do with the Remsen?
00:09:52Well, it's just the bad races that you don't like.
00:09:55Okay.
00:09:59So, Randy, what about that, about Iron Orchard and the Frisette?
00:10:02Well, no, I don't think the Frisette was an especially strong race from top to bottom at all.
00:10:08But the way she won the race, she had never, she'd been on the lead in her two previous races against New York Reds.
00:10:14Her second race was especially visually impressive.
00:10:18They trained, Danny Gargan trained her to settle.
00:10:21And early in the Frisette, when she drops back to sixth going into the turn, Gargan's watching the race.
00:10:29And he told me, he's thinking, oh, my gosh, I've totally screwed this filly up.
00:10:32I went way too far in trying to get her to relax.
00:10:35Look at her.
00:10:36And then she steers to the outside, and here she comes.
00:10:39And she wins anyway.
00:10:40So, I don't think that race was run in the way that she's probably best at as far as the trips go.
00:10:47And I think she'll get a much better trip.
00:10:48Whether it's good enough, we'll see.
00:10:50All right.
00:10:50Move along now to the third race, which is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Phillies Turf.
00:10:55Randy, first, I have a question, because if anybody knows this, you will.
00:10:59Precise six to five in the morning line will be my pick.
00:11:03How bad a post is that?
00:11:07It's bad.
00:11:09Obviously, with a short run into the first turn, horses are disadvantaged when they have far outside post positions.
00:11:17It's just, it's geometry.
00:11:18I mean, we all know that.
00:11:20But when you look at the historic records, it doesn't come up as bad as you would expect.
00:11:28That's the mile for older horses, same distance tomorrow.
00:11:32And then the Juvenile Phillies Turf and the Juvenile Turf, all three races at one mile.
00:11:37And you go back and look through the history of the Breeders' Cup, even out here in Southern California.
00:11:41And it can be overcome.
00:11:43Just last year, hard to justify it, post-12.
00:11:45It hit at a bomb, won the Juvenile for Aidan O'Brien from post-14.
00:11:51Yeah.
00:11:52So it's not a complete deal breaker if the horse has a big edge and gets a decent trip.
00:11:58Who knows what kind of trip she's going to get going into the first turn?
00:12:02All right.
00:12:02Well, I'm going to take her.
00:12:03I mean, Aidan O'Brien, I trust.
00:12:05Two straight grade one victories, a winner and a group three before that.
00:12:10So this horse is really, really good and on top of her game right now.
00:12:14So I will overlook the 13 post and go with Precise.
00:12:20She has the reputation as the number one two-year-old filly, not just in Ireland, but all of Europe.
00:12:29She's the early favorite right now in the books over there for the 1,000 guineas next year.
00:12:35And Precise has looked great.
00:12:37You watch the videos.
00:12:38She's very visually impressive, but obviously we just talked about post-13.
00:12:42It is not an ideal post-draw in a 13-horse field.
00:12:46So what's the opposite?
00:12:49Post-1.
00:12:50And to me, the two most visually impressive horses in the race watching their videos were Precise and Ultimate Love.
00:12:58Post-1.
00:12:59Now, do I think Ultimate Love is as talented overall as Precise?
00:13:03No.
00:13:03But Precise is going to be, what, seven to five, six to five from post-13.
00:13:10Ultimate Love is going to be eight to one, ten to one from post number one.
00:13:15She's got a great pedigree herself.
00:13:18She's three for three lifetime.
00:13:20Johnny Velasquez working out a trip from the rail.
00:13:22So I'll take Ultimate Love at a price, trying to beat the favorite again.
00:13:27Definitely agree with you there.
00:13:29I do like Precise on top, but I'm actually using three horses in this race.
00:13:33I like Ultimate Love.
00:13:36She comes in.
00:13:37That's Selina Stiggs.
00:13:38You've got to watch it back.
00:13:39You've watched it back already.
00:13:41She was just the easiest of winners.
00:13:42She's a big, beautiful daughter of Curlin.
00:13:45I mean, with the breeding like that, you'd think, why isn't she running on the dirt?
00:13:48I don't know.
00:13:50But she's been running on the grass.
00:13:52She's out of a Bernadini mare.
00:13:54She's dirt on dirt.
00:13:56So I like Ultimate Love in there.
00:13:57And I'm going to give you a 20 to one shot to use as well.
00:14:00That's Brave Deb for Dick Mandela.
00:14:03Perfect two for two.
00:14:05She likes Del Mar.
00:14:06She's gone the distance.
00:14:07She's a greatest stakes winner at a mile at Del Mar.
00:14:10She's got speed.
00:14:12But she can switch off, off a really fast pace.
00:14:15If you watch her words, they've got to go fast.
00:14:18If they go fast enough, she will relax.
00:14:20And she's big and beautiful.
00:14:23Like, she's a fabulous-looking daughter of Authentic.
00:14:26So I'm using three in here for me.
00:14:29All right.
00:14:29Let's hash out Ultimate Love's pedigree real quick here, which is, to me, is really fascinating.
00:14:35I mean, Curlin is just dirt, dirt, dirt, right?
00:14:38I mean, you very seldom see a Curlin who's going to be successful at an upper, upper level on grass.
00:14:44All right.
00:14:44The dam is a mare named Tsunami of Love, who only raced one time.
00:14:49By Bernardini, out of my typhoon, a half-sister to Galileo.
00:14:57There you go.
00:14:58So the turf was on the bottom.
00:15:00And so Trombetta starts her off on grass thinking, I have no idea.
00:15:05Is she going to be a dirt filly?
00:15:06Is she going to take after Curlin?
00:15:08Is she going to be a grass filly?
00:15:09Is she going to take after the bottom side of her pedigree?
00:15:12And it turns out that she's, who knows, she may be even better on dirt.
00:15:16But right now, she's three for three on the grass.
00:15:18Okay.
00:15:19Again, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, I'm going to be a little bit of a wise guy.
00:15:22Obviously, Ted Noffi is the horse to beat.
00:15:25He's a tremendous horse.
00:15:26He's looking for three grade ones this year.
00:15:30We all know how strong Spentherth is into Mischief, et cetera.
00:15:34But I really like the race blackout time.
00:15:37Ran against him last time out.
00:15:39And it looks to me like that he's getting close to Ted Noffi.
00:15:44Kenny McPeak doesn't really gear his horses up early on in their career.
00:15:49He ran a very good race to only lose by two and three quarter lengths to Ted Noffi last time out.
00:15:54He's going to be a decent price.
00:15:56I think he's capable of turning the tables on him.
00:16:00Now, a little later in the show, we're going to give out our bankroll plays.
00:16:05And for the sake of just getting some information out now, I am going to box blackout time and Ted Noffi in the exacta.
00:16:16I'm not a Brandt fan.
00:16:18I just don't know what to make of that last race.
00:16:21Yes, he won the Del Mar Futurity, but he was nothing like the horse that won the maiden special weight before.
00:16:26I don't know what to make of him.
00:16:27Ted Noffi, yes, definitely the horse to beat.
00:16:32Brandt is coming up, in my estimation.
00:16:35He's grown up a little bit.
00:16:37We've still got a question mark two turns with him.
00:16:39But I'm keeping Ted Noffi and his new haircut on top in here.
00:16:43I'm a little intrigued with a long shot who draws the rail, and that's intrepido.
00:16:48Numbers-wise, he's slower than the rest of these.
00:16:50Don't watch him work with Berrios on him.
00:16:52He'll go in 104 or 51 with the reins flopping.
00:16:56But I think he's a really good horse, and he's going to get a good ground-saving trip on the rail.
00:17:02He's already gone the distance, and he's a great one winner.
00:17:05So I'm going to use him in there somewhere.
00:17:07But I do like your pick with blackout time and Kenema Peak.
00:17:12You know what I don't like about Ted Noffi?
00:17:14He's four to five.
00:17:16And, of course, I'm sitting here trying to beat the favorites, okay?
00:17:20You're in Southern California.
00:17:22You're at Del Mar.
00:17:23You've got Bob Baffert.
00:17:24You've got a horse who's two for two at Del Mar, a $3 million yearling.
00:17:28You've got a horse who's probably, in my estimation, looking at the PPs, going to set the pace.
00:17:34They're going to have to catch him.
00:17:36So, and Ted Noffi, if there's any knock at all I can make on Ted Noffi, his race at Keeneland could not have had a better trip.
00:17:46Slow pace, 48 and change for a half.
00:17:49He's sitting right outside of another horse.
00:17:51Just a really antiseptic trip.
00:17:54And they're going to be cruising along almost certainly faster than that.
00:17:58So he's going to have to step up his game even a little bit, I think, more from the Breeders' Futurity.
00:18:04So I'm going to go for Brandt.
00:18:06Wire to wire.
00:18:08The Friday card ends in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.
00:18:10I thought this was one of the toughest races of all the Breeders' Cup to handicap.
00:18:15I am really kind of at a loss.
00:18:17I went with Street Beast off that huge win at Kentucky Downs last time out.
00:18:22I know outfielder Wesley Ward is interesting.
00:18:25There's a couple other interesting horses in here.
00:18:28But I thought this was probably the toughest race to handicap of all the Breeders' Cup races.
00:18:35I agree.
00:18:36This is really tough.
00:18:38Look, Stott is the best horse on paper.
00:18:40Clearly the best.
00:18:41And this is not an all-star stellar lineup of American two-year-old turf horses.
00:18:47Just not.
00:18:49The issue I have with Stott, besides the fact that he's going to be eight to five, is that he's very keen in his races.
00:18:57So when you're at a far outside post like that, it's not Sumion.
00:19:02Who's right?
00:19:03Is it Sumion?
00:19:04Yes.
00:19:05It is Sumion.
00:19:05Okay.
00:19:06Here's the dilemma for Christophe in here.
00:19:08From post 14, to avoid getting caught too wide on the first turn.
00:19:13And he's a Euro, so he's probably not going to break like an American horse.
00:19:16He's probably not going to break that quickly.
00:19:18So you've got a choice.
00:19:20You can either go forward and try to beat most of the field and ease over and save a little ground.
00:19:26Okay.
00:19:27If he does that, the horse is keen naturally.
00:19:30And if he turns him on like that and really gets him going to get position on the first turn,
00:19:34it's going to be tough to reel him back in and get him to settle.
00:19:37And a mile and a 16 or a mile might be stretching it a little bit for him right now.
00:19:43If they ease back and pull over, then he's in a world he's never seen before.
00:19:48And, you know, he's going to have a bunch of horses in front of him.
00:19:52So I'll go with you, Bill.
00:19:54I'll take Street Beast.
00:19:56I think he's the best looking of the Americans based on what I've seen.
00:20:00He didn't beat much at Kentucky Downs.
00:20:02But just for a price, I'll take Street Beast.
00:20:04He was not on my radar.
00:20:08Well done.
00:20:10Yeah, Stard, definitely the horse to beat.
00:20:13I'll tell you who keeps catching my eye every morning, and he's just a gorgeous horse.
00:20:18It's Bottas for Miguel Clement.
00:20:21He breaks from post position number 12.
00:20:23You've got Manny Franco.
00:20:25He's got enough speed where he can just get over and tuck in and save some ground.
00:20:30And he's just flourished out here.
00:20:33He's a big, gorgeous son of the coma out of a lemon drop kid mare.
00:20:38And I have a feeling he is going to run a breakout race.
00:20:42So I'll take Bottas.
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00:22:03His yearlings averaged $314,150 second only to the aforementioned flight line with a top colt of $1.25 million, a top filly of $1.025 million.
00:22:20He's also number two by median sales price of $275,000.
00:22:27Of course, he's a four-time grade one winner, Intimistia's fastest son at Stud, and he is at Windstar Farm.
00:22:35Fastest Horse of the Week, Cool Horse.
00:22:38Remember Chunk of Gold?
00:22:4043-1 when he kind of clunked up and finished second behind Magnitude and the Risen Star.
00:22:46Then he was second in the Louisiana Derby.
00:22:48Then he ran in the Kentucky Derby.
00:22:50A $2,500 original yearling purchase.
00:22:54Well, he's now our fastest horse of the week.
00:22:57Ethan West put blinkers on him before the West Virginia Derby.
00:23:01He goes wire to wire.
00:23:03He wins that race by four lengths.
00:23:04Well, in an allowance race Friday at Keeneland, he wasn't even the favorite.
00:23:09He was the second choice.
00:23:10Goes to the lead.
00:23:11Wins by eight.
00:23:12Going a mile and an eight at Keeneland.
00:23:15Fire speed figure, a career high, 1-0-3.
00:23:19The Bargain, Chunk of Gold, our fastest horse of the week.
00:23:27Saturday car begins with a Breeders' Cup Philly and Mayor Sprint going seven furlongs.
00:23:33And an interesting race.
00:23:34As a matter of fact, this is where the Mandela's Spendthrift crew decided to put Tamara.
00:23:39I don't, I love, how can you not love this horse, a daughter of Beholder?
00:23:45Just don't think she's fast enough, though.
00:23:47And we'll see what Randy and Zoe have to say about that.
00:23:51I'm going to go for Hope Road.
00:23:54And Zoe, help me out here.
00:23:55I don't necessarily, I don't pay a lot of attention to workouts.
00:23:59So I don't think I'm that knowledgeable.
00:24:01I don't know what I'm looking at.
00:24:03They just, they run and they, you know, they're horses and they usually finish neck and neck.
00:24:08But Tom Quigley, our friend out at Santa Anita, said that this workout of Hope Road on October 24th was one of the most impressive things he's ever seen.
00:24:17I went back to First TV to watch it.
00:24:20And boy, was he right.
00:24:21That was an incredible workout.
00:24:23I think Bob Baffert is going to have a tremendous Breeders' Cup.
00:24:27Horses coming off a grade one win in the Alabama.
00:24:30And Zoe, did you see that workout?
00:24:32Yeah, it was quick.
00:24:34Bob seems to think that the clock has got it a little too quick in 57 and 4.
00:24:40He got her a little bit slower.
00:24:43But visually, watching the work, you'd say she went in a minute and changed.
00:24:46She went in company with a stable mate.
00:24:49She's definitely on tilt and she loves Del Mar.
00:24:53Six starts.
00:24:54She's only been off the board in one of them.
00:24:57She's got three wins at Del Mar.
00:24:58So she is most definitely a horse for course.
00:25:02I am for sure I'm going to use her.
00:25:05But I've got Baltus on top, the sweet Azteca so far.
00:25:10She's just had some stellar workouts at Santa Anita.
00:25:13She's a big, beautiful daughter of sharp Azteca.
00:25:17So I have her on top.
00:25:18But I couldn't talk you off a number of fillies in here.
00:25:22I do think Tamara is quick enough.
00:25:24That was a very, very measured win in the Chillingworth last time out.
00:25:29Mike just sat on her like a statue.
00:25:32She could have easily gone super fast if he'd wanted her to.
00:25:36She could have won by 10 that day.
00:25:38So I think Mike was saving her knowing that Dick was going to put her into the
00:25:43Philly and Mare sprint.
00:25:45So, yeah, I'm not worried that she's not fast enough whatsoever.
00:25:49All right.
00:25:50It's hope road for me too.
00:25:51I didn't love sweet Azteca's last win in the Rancho Bernardo.
00:25:57She was hooked up in a speed duel, and they opened up like eight lengths on the
00:26:01rest of the field.
00:26:02But she went her last 16th, not urged.
00:26:04Okay, I get it.
00:26:05She was wrapped up a little bit.
00:26:06But she went almost seven seconds for her last 16th of a mile, and now she's got to
00:26:10go seven furlongs.
00:26:11I think she'll set the pace, which is she likes.
00:26:13She shouldn't get hooked up in a speed duel.
00:26:15I can see why she's the worst to beat.
00:26:17I can see why she's the favorite.
00:26:18But I'll take hope road.
00:26:20The thing about workouts, Bill, go ahead, Zoe.
00:26:24I think hope road will wind up being the favorite.
00:26:26Do you really?
00:26:27Yeah.
00:26:27Okay.
00:26:28The power of bulb.
00:26:29Randy, you picked a favorite.
00:26:31Uh-oh.
00:26:31Uh-oh.
00:26:32Uh-oh.
00:26:32The thing about workouts, Bill, I share your, you know, sometimes frustration with trying
00:26:38to gauge workouts and stuff.
00:26:40But the mistake that most people make about workouts, if you don't have knowledge of the
00:26:46horse's body of work, it's very tough to really gauge workouts properly.
00:26:52If a horse, you know, works a bullet, but always works bullets, always looks fantastic on the
00:26:58racetrack, then it's not as important as if you have a horse that typically is just
00:27:03so-so, you know, and all of a sudden wakes up and works tremendously well.
00:27:07So, anyway.
00:27:07All right.
00:27:09We'll move along now to the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.
00:27:12I wrote a story earlier this week about Kadeem, who's nine years old and will be ridden by a
00:27:1754-year-old jockey in Frankie de Torre.
00:27:20So, this is the one for the geriatric set.
00:27:23And, you know, I thought it was a cute little story.
00:27:25It's been well-received on the TDN.
00:27:27But, you know, okay, can a nine-year-old win this race?
00:27:30He wouldn't think so.
00:27:31But you know what?
00:27:32I'm actually going to pick this horse.
00:27:34His race last time out in the Woodford was fantastic.
00:27:38He got off slow.
00:27:39He was dead last at the top of the stretch.
00:27:42And he just mowed him down.
00:27:43The difference is, for whatever reason, I guess it's because of firm turf.
00:27:47He runs a lot better.
00:27:49Hi, Michelle.
00:27:52He runs a lot better in the U.S. than he does in Europe.
00:27:56And that's probably the reason why is because he gets the firm turf.
00:28:00And that's exactly what trainer Charlie Hill has told me.
00:28:02We want to run out in the Breeders' Cup because at Del Mar, of course, you're going to get firm turf.
00:28:07You know, can a nine-year-old do it?
00:28:09That's a big question.
00:28:10It's a little bit of a sentimental pick.
00:28:12But go back if you get a chance and watch the Woodford.
00:28:14It was really impressive.
00:28:17He's made four starts this year.
00:28:19Two of them in the U.S.
00:28:20Made a start last year in the Kentucky Downs turf sprint.
00:28:23Ran second.
00:28:24Ran second.
00:28:25Third again in the turf sprint this year.
00:28:27And then that really, really strong race for the Woodward.
00:28:30It's a little bit inconsistent.
00:28:31He can finish way up the track.
00:28:33But if that same horse shows up from the Woodward, actually, I think he has a chance.
00:28:39How about the blinkers on for him?
00:28:42Charlie Hill is going to the blinkers just to try and sharpen him up just a little.
00:28:48Because he just eked up last time under Frankie in the Woodford.
00:28:51So he's going to get the blinkers on.
00:28:53I will say one thing.
00:28:54He's looked terrific.
00:28:55They've been taking him out on the turf course.
00:28:56You'd never guess he was a nine-year-old.
00:28:58You know, he almost looks as good as Randy.
00:29:01You know, he's out there on the turf course, just springing along.
00:29:05He's, yeah, he looks terrific in there.
00:29:10You know, I want to pick some winners.
00:29:12So I'm going to go with A.G.
00:29:13Bullitt.
00:29:14She looks like a man amongst boys.
00:29:16She's just so stout and manly looking for a five-year-old mare.
00:29:23Yeah, I think she's almost a beat in here.
00:29:25So I don't mind being a chalk eating weasel.
00:29:27I just want to be right.
00:29:29I'm going to go home with Kadeem underneath.
00:29:32I'll be rooting for Kadeem just because it's such a cool story, right?
00:29:35There's only one.
00:29:36There's only two horses over age seven that have ever won a breeder's cup race at all.
00:29:40The record is a nine-year-old, a kaleidoscopio, won the old marathon, right?
00:29:46I think it was a mile and three quarters on the dirt.
00:29:48Yeah.
00:29:49Starting at the six-furlong mark.
00:29:51And then obviously won this race as an eight-year-old.
00:29:54That was down the hill at Santa Anita.
00:29:56I think it was down the hill at Santa Anita.
00:29:58But anyway, those are the only two older, old, old horses.
00:30:02The thing about Kadeem, Kadeem, whatever you say it, I spent some time with the exercise rider
00:30:07and the assistant trainer for Charlie Hills in the stall.
00:30:11I didn't get in the stall.
00:30:12She was in the stall with the horse.
00:30:15And you know why they train him on the turf?
00:30:16He's so quirky, right?
00:30:18He tends to throw fits in the paddock.
00:30:20He throws fits in the starting gate.
00:30:22So why train on the turf?
00:30:24Well, in the morning, he doesn't like horses to his left.
00:30:28He doesn't like horses to his right.
00:30:30He doesn't like horses in front of him.
00:30:31And he doesn't like horses behind him.
00:30:35That's a problem.
00:30:36If you train on the dirt, and he does not know what to think when he's on the dirt and
00:30:41horses are coming the wrong way, right, on the outside rail, that really freaks him out.
00:30:46When they train him in Europe, they're on a very narrow, all-weather strip where horses
00:30:53can't be on either side of him.
00:30:54They train him in front, single file, and they separate him from the rest of the horses.
00:30:59So there's no other horses around him when he trains.
00:31:00So they've got him on the turf horse because it's less crowded.
00:31:03Anyway, I'll take AG Bullitt.
00:31:05I'm with you.
00:31:06I think AG Bullitt and Motorious are the two horses to beat.
00:31:11You know, deference to the Europeans in Arizona Blaze and Bucanero Fuerte, who's a great story
00:31:16himself.
00:31:16But I think one of those two is going to win.
00:31:19AG Bullitt, I think, will get the jump on Motorious.
00:31:21So I'll take AG Bullitt.
00:31:23I can tell you who I'm not picking is Government Sam, owned by Bregman Family Racing.
00:31:28He opted out of his contract for the Red Sox.
00:31:31No Alex Bregman horses for me.
00:31:33Sorry.
00:31:35Come on, Alex.
00:31:36Go back to Boston.
00:31:37We need you.
00:31:38Jeez.
00:31:39All right.
00:31:40So let's move along now to the next race on the Saturday Breeders' Cup card.
00:31:45And we are getting to the Breeders' Cup turf, Breeders' Cup sprint.
00:31:52Without Bookum Dano in this race, does anybody care?
00:31:55Let's just move on.
00:31:58No, Bookum Dano, some of the things that they said afterwards, like we're not going to run
00:32:03because Paco Lopez can't ride him.
00:32:05That's a bunch of nonsense.
00:32:06The horse is just a little beaten up after his campaign, and they're looking to bring
00:32:10him back next year.
00:32:11So that's the story on him.
00:32:13I hope, you know, because I'm such a Bookum Dano loon, I hope that he can still win the
00:32:19Eclipse Award, which I think he probably could, depending on who wins this.
00:32:23Unlike Randy, I'll go for some chalk here and Ben Tornado.
00:32:27He has had one start this year in a stake at Churchill Downs, won very easily.
00:32:33Looks like a beautiful prep to get ready for this race.
00:32:36He was second last year, beating only a half length behind Straight No Chaser.
00:32:40I'm not sure Straight No Chaser is as good this year as he was last year.
00:32:44So Ben Tornado with a red or a tease.
00:32:47By the way, the West Coast people may not know much about Jose D'Angelo.
00:32:51He's a very good and very underrated trainer, winning a 19%, 123 races.
00:32:58And he certainly is not in over his head against the superstar trainers of the world.
00:33:02So Ben Tornado for me.
00:33:03Yeah, I've been trying to beat all the favorites.
00:33:06I can't try to beat this one.
00:33:08To me, it's Ben Tornado.
00:33:09And I like a Ben Tornado imagination exacto in here.
00:33:15Nice.
00:33:15Yeah, well, all three of us are on Ben Tornado.
00:33:18Beautiful horse, easy on the ice.
00:33:20His trainer's kind of easy on the ice as well in Jose D'Angelo.
00:33:24So I like that.
00:33:25The two most handsome people walking into the ring.
00:33:29So I'll take Ben Tornado.
00:33:31Copian draws the rail with Hall of Famer Mike Smith.
00:33:33You want to talk about a workout?
00:33:35How about Copian's?
00:33:36Did you see that one, Bill?
00:33:38No, I did not.
00:33:39Okay, so I watched it live.
00:33:40And I'm like, what is my first thought was, what is Mike thinking?
00:33:45Because, you know, Mandela told him to go fast.
00:33:48They wanted to sharpen her up, right?
00:33:49But she's a grade one winning Philly.
00:33:51She's already pretty quick.
00:33:52So Mike absolutely sent her at the 3-8 pole to go a 3-8 shot.
00:34:00Like he sent her.
00:34:01He got down like a lizard on a log.
00:34:03He looked like a bug boy.
00:34:04So he sent her.
00:34:06And I think Mandela was looking for about 35.
00:34:09She winds up going in 33-2 at Santa Anita and probably galloped out in 46.
00:34:17That was a work you need to watch on First TV.
00:34:21It was pretty amazing.
00:34:21Mandela was actually fine.
00:34:23Mike can do no wrong.
00:34:24If I'd have been on her and gone that fast, I'd have had to jump off at the gap and run as fast as I could away from Mandela.
00:34:32Because he'd be screaming at me.
00:34:35But she's definitely going to throw her hat in the ring in a big way.
00:34:40Well, this is our special Breeders' Cup edition of the TD and Riders Room.
00:34:43So we don't have a guest of the week.
00:34:45You know what?
00:34:46The guest of the week in memoriam, John Gaines, the founder of the Breeders' Cup.
00:34:51And he is brought to you by, of course, Gainesway, home of Drain the Clock.
00:34:57The judges have seen Drain the Clock's first yearlings.
00:34:59And the judges have spoken, buying his yearlings for an average of seven times his initial stud fee of just $10,000.
00:35:07His top Colt sold for $270,000.
00:35:11His top Philly brought $200,000.
00:35:14Of course, Drain the Clock, you know how fast he was.
00:35:16A lightning fast, grade one winning sprinter with an imposing physical presence.
00:35:22Gainesway, power, passion, performance.
00:35:32Drain the Clock will win and win by as much as he wants.
00:35:35Drain the Clock will bound home the winner.
00:35:37Drain the Clock, Jackie's Warrior.
00:35:44Drain the Clock by a head.
00:35:48$270,000.
00:35:50In the back.
00:35:50$250,000.
00:35:52It's the last edition of First Things First, at least until the big meet at Santa Anita continues.
00:36:02So we'll be back racing at Santa Anita the day after Christmas, Boxing Day for all my English pals over there.
00:36:09So join us then.
00:36:10But on this week's edition, I got the clippers out.
00:36:13No, I didn't give Bill a haircut.
00:36:14I didn't cut Randy's three hairs on his head.
00:36:18I went to Hall of Fame with Todd Fletcher's barn, got the clippers out, and got clipping Mindframe.
00:36:24Mindframe was a very good boy and just looked absolutely beautiful.
00:36:27And then I got the clippers out and clipped Ted Noffey, the horse, not the person.
00:36:33Both boys stood like statues.
00:36:35They got haircuts.
00:36:36And I thought they looked very good.
00:36:38They passed the test.
00:36:39Todd Fletcher came up, asked me if I stood on a bucket,
00:36:41checked the top and underneath just in case I missed a little bit.
00:36:45Got the big thumbs up from Todd and a fistful of hundreds.
00:36:49And Bob's your uncle, Fanny's your aunt.
00:36:51They both got haircuts and they look great.
00:37:11Todd's here to inspect.
00:37:15How does it look?
00:37:17It's good to me so far.
00:37:18Are you putting a fistful of hundreds in your pocket?
00:37:20Looks like it.
00:37:21You check the top?
00:37:23You check the top?
00:37:24Is it good up there?
00:37:25All right.
00:37:41Well, the Breeders' Cup Distaff, Bob Baffert looks like he might have a huge Breeders' Cup.
00:37:47I actually think his most likely winner of any of his horses is Seismic Beauty.
00:37:52I mean, I suppose there's some chance she would bounce.
00:37:54But Randy and the buyer number, she's so much faster than anybody else.
00:37:58And she also looks like she can go wire to wire.
00:38:02This is one you're going to get no price on whatsoever.
00:38:05Is this a favorite you're going to try to be?
00:38:06I want to ask Zoe.
00:38:09Zoe, you've been watching these horses train.
00:38:11You're much better than Bill and I are at the physical part of it, looking at them.
00:38:17What do you think about Seismic Beauty?
00:38:18I'm going to take a stand against her.
00:38:21Wow.
00:38:22I'm not seeing the sparkle that I need to see from her.
00:38:27Yeah, her works have been fine.
00:38:28She's always a very good workhorse.
00:38:31Even on her worst day, she could outwork any horse she want to.
00:38:34Bob works her on her own.
00:38:35She's a great workhorse.
00:38:37I'm just not sold on her.
00:38:38I'm not seeing her coming into this.
00:38:42I mean, she's 100%, but I'm going elsewhere.
00:38:45I don't like Seismic Beauty.
00:38:47I'm going with Darth Vader and her teddy bear, Ewok, who's in the corner of her stall.
00:38:52We need NBC to show Ewok the teddy bear, Randy.
00:38:57Darth Vader's doing great.
00:38:59So I'm going to trust in Johnny V.
00:39:02He's going to put her in the perfect spot.
00:39:03She does draw her outside, but she's just so tactical.
00:39:07She's almost like riding a bike.
00:39:09Johnny can just point her in the right direction and just keep pedaling.
00:39:13And he fits her like an absolute glove.
00:39:15So Darth Vader for me in here without question.
00:39:19All right.
00:39:20Here's my problem with Seismic Beauty.
00:39:22I've heard the same things that Zoe mentioned, that she looks fine.
00:39:25She looks good, but maybe not quite as good as she did earlier.
00:39:29When she won the Santa Margarita 2 back and got a big number, the only other speed horse in the race, semi-speed, was Splendora, who's also a Baffert horse, and they're not going to hook each other.
00:39:41So she just cruised around there.
00:39:43Splendora was 4 to 5 that day, and Seismic Beauty just took off and left her.
00:39:46Then they'd come back in the Clement Hirsch, and the fractions looked pretty fast.
00:39:51But Royal Spa was the closest stalker in there, who's not really a speed.
00:39:55Rishi was in there.
00:39:57Bob's not going to go with Rishi.
00:39:58So that leaves Seismic Beauty again on a clear early lead.
00:40:01I think with Jin Jin in here to her inside, who's set some decent fractions at Keeneland, you know, Scylla is from post 4.
00:40:12She got off to a little bit of a stumbling start in the spinster, or she would have been right up there on the lead, I think, going two turns.
00:40:18She's usually right up there.
00:40:19I think there could be enough pace pressure on Seismic Beauty to maybe soften her up a little bit.
00:40:27So, Darth Vader.
00:40:29It's Darth Vader for me, too.
00:40:30Randy, we haven't got to the Classic yet, but I noticed you haven't picked any Japanese horses, and you are Mr. Japan.
00:40:38You love to pick these horses.
00:40:40I'm just guessing Forever Young is your Hope in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
00:40:45But do any of these other Japanese horses, as you see it, have a chance?
00:40:48It's hard to gauge their form.
00:40:50They're so inconsistent on paper other than Forever Young.
00:40:53And to me, if they're – okay, Love's Only You was the best in Japan, was the best grass filly or mare in Japan.
00:41:03She comes over here, she wins.
00:41:05Marsh Lorraine, who knows what was going on there.
00:41:08These horses, other than Forever Young, are not even in the top three or four in their divisions in Japan.
00:41:14So, I don't know how they're going to come over here and win at the Breeders' Cup.
00:41:18I think they're just kind of throwing a lot of mud against the wall and hoping something sticks.
00:41:22I think maybe they think it's an easy game.
00:41:24One more just to touch on really quick.
00:41:26Sarah Watt-Rim.
00:41:28I'm not sure she can win this, but wouldn't it be a nice story?
00:41:30Because this is going to be Nacho Carrera's last starter.
00:41:34He's retiring and going back to Argentina.
00:41:37So, he said he's got things on his bucket list he wants to do.
00:41:40And this is the last horse he's running.
00:41:43So, I'd like to just wish him happy retirement.
00:41:46Well done.
00:41:47Eighth race on the Saturday card is the Breeders' Cup Turf.
00:41:50And, you know, the Europeans have got to dominate this race.
00:41:54I think you have to look at Rebels' Romance versus the horse that ran such a good second in the arc, Minnie Hawk.
00:42:01I even think that Wimbledon Hawkeye's got a chance in here.
00:42:04But I think it's a two-horse race between Rebels' Romance and Minnie Hawk.
00:42:08I'm not really stepping out on a line that are the first two favorites.
00:42:12But I would actually pick Rebels' Romance on top.
00:42:16I mean, this old guy, he really knows how to get it done.
00:42:18He won this race in 2022.
00:42:20He didn't win it in 23.
00:42:22He won it in 24.
00:42:23He'll be going to win this race for the third time.
00:42:26Now, obviously, Minnie Hawk is second-beatenly ahead.
00:42:31And the Arc de Triomphe have to have tremendous respect for her.
00:42:34As, again, as we get later on to our bets, those are the two I'm using in exactives with a little bit of Wimbledon Hawkeye thrown in.
00:42:44But I think it's going to be one or the other.
00:42:47Charlie Appleby versus Aiden O'Brien.
00:42:49What's better than that?
00:42:50Yeah, I know I've been trying to beat the favorites here, but I'm not stupid.
00:42:54I mean, these two are standouts, right?
00:42:57To me, it's almost a coin flip.
00:42:59I think Minnie Hawk is probably a little better than Rebels' Romance.
00:43:04But Rebels' Romance, you know, he loves the American style of racing and he can handle it so well over here.
00:43:09So you'll see when we do our bets, I'm completely tossed up in here.
00:43:13But I do think, in my opinion, it's a great trifecta and superfecta, not just the top two.
00:43:22So you've got the top two.
00:43:23Who knows which of the two is going to wind up getting the trip and getting to win.
00:43:26To me, Amalok is clearly the third best horse in the race.
00:43:31And then you've got Gold Phoenix, the local, who always sort of runs pretty well in Southern California.
00:43:36To me, that's your superfecta.
00:43:38But, you know, I'll take Minnie Hawk just because I think she's inherently a three-year-old filly,
00:43:47but inherently maybe a little bit of a better horse than Rebels' Romance.
00:43:50I don't know.
00:43:51Randy, can you show any love for Salawi, another European shipper, one of the Canadian International last time out?
00:43:57No.
00:43:58Why not?
00:43:58No love for Salawi.
00:43:59I don't think he's good enough.
00:44:01No love for Wimbledon Hawkeye.
00:44:02It'd be a great story.
00:44:03I don't think he's good enough.
00:44:04I don't think any of the other Americans are good enough.
00:44:08Yeah.
00:44:10Minnie Hawk, for me, three-time Oak winner, got a good draw.
00:44:14She's eight to five.
00:44:15She's in the eight post.
00:44:17Sumion just got beat by a really good horse in bottomless ground.
00:44:20She's going to get to hear her feet rattle.
00:44:22And she is the best horse in the race.
00:44:25Yes.
00:44:25I think she's just going to get the jump on Romantic Warrior.
00:44:29I mean, he's got his one stride is two of hers,
00:44:32but she's going to be way ahead of him unless they figure out some kind of brilliant trip
00:44:38on Romantic Warrior.
00:44:39I mean, Rebel's Romance, excuse me, with Buick aboard.
00:44:42I saw him train yesterday, and I was actually stood on the stand with Charlie Appleby.
00:44:46And here comes Rebel Romance by.
00:44:48I'm like, look at the old man go.
00:44:50And Charlie was just grinning like a Cheshire cat.
00:44:53He just absolutely loves that horse.
00:44:56And what a, I mean, what, what a horse.
00:44:58I don't think there'll ever be a horse like Rebel's Romance.
00:45:02Going for his 10th group grade one.
00:45:05And what's he made?
00:45:06$14 million, 2029.
00:45:09He's amazing.
00:45:10And he's taken it all over the world.
00:45:13Absolutely brilliant.
00:45:15All right.
00:45:16We move along to the big one, the Breeders' Cup Classic.
00:45:18We have just, we're again, we're recording this on Tuesday.
00:45:21We have just got official word that sovereignty is indeed scratched.
00:45:26So the biggest name in the Breeders' Cup Classic will not be running.
00:45:30I would have picked him.
00:45:31I wouldn't have no hesitation picking him if he was okay.
00:45:36I'll go with fierceness now.
00:45:39You know, he's a little, still a little bit in, out, in, out.
00:45:42But the Pacific Classic, when he beat a legitimate horse in journalism,
00:45:46journalism was the one that was always running behind sovereignty.
00:45:49I think the one post will be fine for him and John Velasquez, Todd Pletcher being the trainer.
00:45:55And then, let me ask you guys this, and get back to your picks, but I want to ask both of you this.
00:46:01What do you make of this controversy about contrary thinking and Mike Ropoli saying he shouldn't be allowed to run?
00:46:07It's horse racing.
00:46:08It's been a part of horse racing forever.
00:46:11I don't see a problem with it.
00:46:13In the Santa Anita Derby, CRK Racing and John Sheriff's ran a pacemaker for Baeza.
00:46:18There wasn't any, you know, outcry about that.
00:46:23So, I don't have a problem with it.
00:46:25Yeah, I'm fine with it.
00:46:27I thought it was interesting they've got Florent Giroux on him.
00:46:30So, they're definitely sending him, and Flo will do whatever.
00:46:35So, that to me was, I was like, oh.
00:46:37Because I was thinking if they run, who are they going to put on him?
00:46:41And there you have Florent Giroux.
00:46:44Yeah, massive bummer that Sovereignty's out, but Bill always doing right by the horse.
00:46:48So, he'll be retired.
00:46:51I'm going to go with the horse that no one's really talking about in Sierra Leone.
00:46:57You know, he's a perfect one-for-one.
00:46:58Damar Pratt's been kind of quiet.
00:47:01Sierra Leone's been quiet.
00:47:02Chad Brown can't win a race at Keeneland.
00:47:04Apparently, he won two the other day.
00:47:06So, I'm like, did you ever get off the dock at Keeneland?
00:47:09He's like, I won two.
00:47:10I'm like, okay, Chad.
00:47:11So, Sierra Leone looks great coming in from Saratoga.
00:47:16He's actually honed up a little bit.
00:47:19He's a little tighter than the last time I saw him because he is a big horse.
00:47:23But he looks tight, sharp, and ready to roll.
00:47:27So, I'll take Sierra Leone.
00:47:30I think Baez is going to run a big race.
00:47:32I could definitely see him underneath.
00:47:35And you've got to feel for Todd.
00:47:37All he said all week long was, I don't want the one hole.
00:47:40I don't want the one hole.
00:47:42And he gets the one hole.
00:47:43They have extended that temporary running rail.
00:47:46So, that's going to go a little bit further for him.
00:47:49So, that should help Fezness.
00:47:52Yeah.
00:47:53Look, even without sovereignty, it's unfortunate that he's not running.
00:47:56But this is still one hell of a race.
00:47:59It's only the second time in the history of the Breeders' Cup that the one, two, three finishers from the Classic one year come back and all run the next year.
00:48:06There's only a handful of times that two of the top three, the top, you know, in the Kentucky Derby have come back to run.
00:48:13So, it's a great race.
00:48:14And I could give you a convincing case for Fezness, for Sierra Leone, for Forever Young, for Journalism, and for Baeza.
00:48:24You can sell any of those horses as the likely winner of the Classic.
00:48:31But, you know, Bill's been predicting this all along.
00:48:34For the price, I think the Japanese horse is the best play.
00:48:38But if he runs his race in the Saudi Cup back again, that was the race where he beat Romantic Warrior.
00:48:45He shouldn't have beaten Romantic Warrior, thanks to James McDonald, the jockey that was on Romantic Warrior.
00:48:52But, sorry, James.
00:48:54That race was so unbelievable.
00:48:58It was so fast.
00:48:58It's like the equivalent of, like, we did the figure, I forgot.
00:49:01It's like 118 or 119 buyer speed figure.
00:49:04That's how fast it was.
00:49:06So, he's the best horse in the race if he goes back to that.
00:49:11So, at 6-1 or 7-1, he's going to be lower than that now, I guess, with the scratch of Sovereignty.
00:49:16But, to me, I'll take the Japanese horse just based on the Saudi Cup.
00:49:21Randy, with Sovereignty out, who's the favorite?
00:49:24Good question.
00:49:27Good question.
00:49:28I would say probably fierceness.
00:49:30Yeah.
00:49:31But I don't like to draw.
00:49:34And so, here's what's going to happen with the pacemaker, with contrary thinking.
00:49:39In a perfect world, Todd Pletcher would love contrary thinking to blast off, clear the field, drop to the rail, right?
00:49:50And then, Johnny Velasquez on fierceness could just ease out and sit all alone in second and stalk contrary thinking and just take over when he's ready and open up.
00:50:01But, do you really think Florent Giroux is going to do that?
00:50:04No.
00:50:06He's going to stay out in the three-path, just outside of fierceness, and force Johnny Velasquez either to stay down on the inside with fierceness or to really angle out sharply to get around him.
00:50:20He's just going to be a nuisance.
00:50:22You know, and maybe fierceness is good enough to overcome that.
00:50:25Zoe, what do you think about tactics?
00:50:28I mean, Flo's the right guy for it.
00:50:30I mean, I wouldn't want to be in that position and messing up somebody's A game.
00:50:35I'm not sure I'd want to ride him.
00:50:36If he offered me the man, I'd say no.
00:50:39I don't want to put my head in that kind of vice.
00:50:43But Flo will do it.
00:50:44Flo will do whatever he wants.
00:50:46And you're probably right.
00:50:47He's going to goad him into going to the inside and then press him.
00:50:52So, he's in there for a reason.
00:50:55The TD and Riders are brought to you by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, the PHBA.
00:50:59There were a pair of Pennsylvania bred stakes races on Wednesday at Parks.
00:51:05The first running of the $75,000 Disco Chick Stakes for Pennsylvania sired and bred fillies and mares.
00:51:12Had a fitting winner, Nature's Candy, a homebred for Freedom Racing.
00:51:17That is, Dr. Jerry Kolde-Babayuk.
00:51:19If I pronounced that wrong, I'm sorry, Dr. Jerry.
00:51:22Nature's Candy pressed the pace and cleared off to a two-and-a-half-length win over Packle Bell.
00:51:27Dr. Kolde-Babayuk also bred and raced Disco Chick.
00:51:31That's why it was such a fitting winner.
00:51:33Then there was the $75,000 Jump Start Stakes, also for PA sired and bred runners.
00:51:39The Betsy Houghton bred Silhouette Cove, a three-year-old, rallied for mid-pack for his first Stakes victory.
00:51:46He won it by a length in three quarters.
00:51:47Each of those winning breeders will receive about $18,000 in breeders' awards as PA sired, PA bred horses finishing first, second, or third receive 40% bonus in awards.
00:51:59So, to book your mare and get some of this money to a Pennsylvania sire, stay tuned for the Pennsylvania Stallion Directory,
00:52:04which will be online before the end of November and available by QR code attached to the December Blood Horse.
00:52:12For more information on owning or breeding your own PA bred, go to pabred.com or call Brian Sanfratello at 610-444-1050.
00:52:21The Pennsylvania Breeding Program is the best program in the country.
00:52:27The stallion awards, the owner bonuses, also the restrictive races and the stakes races for Pennsylvania breeds.
00:52:34This year, eight breeders are on track to earn over $200,000 in breeders' awards, and two could hit the million-dollar mark.
00:52:44We have the best program in the country.
00:52:47Take advantage of the fantastic program that we have.
00:52:50Learn more at pabred.com.
00:52:52With some of the fullest fields in the country and quality racing year-round,
00:52:57there's never been a better time to reap the rewards of breeding and racing in Kentucky.
00:53:04Purse money in Kentucky is at an all-time high, as is average purse per race, outpacing California, Florida, and New York.
00:53:13Kentucky Breds.
00:53:15Breed them.
00:53:16Raise them.
00:53:17Race them.
00:53:18We all win.
00:53:20TD and Writers' Room brought to you by Kentucky Breds, who, guess what, figured to have a pretty good day Friday and Saturday at the Breeders' Cup.
00:53:32That's not exactly man-bites-dog stuff.
00:53:34It's Kentucky Breds.
00:53:35They've won 256 Breeders' Cup races, more than any other state or country, 29 wins in the Breeders' Cup Classic alone.
00:53:42I would love a prop bet right now.
00:53:45The number of Breeders' Cup winners, not bred, not bred in Kentucky or Ireland.
00:53:50That could be interesting.
00:53:51Anyway, a total of 88 Kentucky Breds are entered in the 14 Breeders' Cup races this year,
00:53:56including eight of the 10 starters in the Classic, also the defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion in Sierra Leone,
00:54:02who looks to become the second horse ever to win back-to-back Classics after Tisnell.
00:54:06Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Future Stars Friday.
00:54:09All eight starters are Kentucky Breds.
00:54:11Ted, Noffy, Brand, and Trepido.
00:54:13Eight of the nine in the Juvenile Phillies are Kentucky Breds.
00:54:16Undefeated Tommy Joe, Bottle of Rouge.
00:54:18Kentucky Breds are everywhere.
00:54:20Kentucky Breds.
00:54:21Breed them.
00:54:22Raise them.
00:54:22Race them.
00:54:23We all win.
00:54:25All right, we begin our final segment here on our Breeders' Cup Countdown
00:54:28with the Breeders' Cup Mile going one mile, of course, on the turf course.
00:54:33Notable speech looks very good for Charlie Appleby.
00:54:36He ran third in this race last year, came back and won the Woodbine Mile last time at Woodbine.
00:54:41I kind of figure Appleby's going to find a way to win a race or two, so maybe this is the one.
00:54:46But I'm going to go for a little bit of a price.
00:54:47I'm going to go for Salon, the horse right outside of him.
00:54:50He's coming off a win in a very impressive, very important race, the Breed and Moulin de
00:54:56Longchamp, only won by a nose and was 14 to one.
00:55:00But where his notable speech is probably going to be about two to one, eight to five, I might
00:55:04get six, seven to one on this horse.
00:55:06And again, to me, it's all Europeans all the time.
00:55:08I do have a lot of respect for Johannes, though.
00:55:12This is his third start off a layoff.
00:55:15He ran very well last time out.
00:55:16How bad does Humberto Raspoli want to win a Breeders' Cup race, too?
00:55:21Oh, my goodness.
00:55:22He must be so pumped up to win.
00:55:25It's interesting.
00:55:26Michael McCarthy took him off all his horses, not just journalism.
00:55:30So Jose Ortiz is the man there.
00:55:32So Johannes is the best American.
00:55:34Eight to one on him is a pretty good price.
00:55:36But I will go instead for my European shipper.
00:55:39Thanks for selling, Johannes, there.
00:55:41That's me at eight to one.
00:55:43And people talk about, you know, notable speech, the favorite, deserves to be the favorite.
00:55:47Yeah.
00:55:47And I, OK, I get it.
00:55:48I get it.
00:55:49Go back and watch last year's Breeders' Cup mile.
00:55:51They get to the top of the stretch.
00:55:53They're moving as a team.
00:55:55Johannes is slightly ahead of notable speech.
00:55:59Is it notable?
00:55:59Yeah.
00:56:01And the length of the stretch, notable speech is trying to get by Johannes and can't.
00:56:10Tried, tried, tried, tried all the way to the wire and never could get by Johannes, who
00:56:16winds up finishing second.
00:56:17And when they galloped out, Johannes was still in front of him.
00:56:20So there's not much speed in this race at all.
00:56:23I think Johannes is going to get a good stalking trip second or third early if Rispoli plays
00:56:28his cards right.
00:56:29And I'll take Johannes again to outgame notable speech to the wire.
00:56:37Rispoli really wants to win a Breeders' Cup.
00:56:38And he did have the choice of riding either Johannes or Forbidable Man.
00:56:43So he's not completely out of the Michael McCarthy bar and he got the choice.
00:56:48And quite rightly so, he should ride Johannes.
00:56:51So we've got Johnny V on Forbidable Man.
00:56:54I'm looking for a price in here.
00:56:55I'm going with Jonquil.
00:56:57Gets Colin Keane aboard him for the first time for Andrew Boulding.
00:57:01Coming out of that grade one turf mile.
00:57:03Didn't get the best of trips that day.
00:57:05So he's had a bit of time to just kind of figure out if he likes it over here.
00:57:12He's trained very well.
00:57:13Looks fantastic out on the racetrack.
00:57:16So give me a piece of Jonquil in here.
00:57:18I'm not going to take the favorite.
00:57:20I do like Johannes.
00:57:21I'm going to use him underneath.
00:57:24So I'm going to do an exact to Jonquil and Johannes.
00:57:28And Jonquil's 10 to 1.
00:57:29All right, let's turn our attention now to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
00:57:35Another tough race.
00:57:36I mean, Nysos is the wild card.
00:57:38He's obviously the most talented horse in the race.
00:57:40But, you know, he's been so lightly raced.
00:57:42A lot of gaps in between his form.
00:57:44I would assume Bob Baffert, who's a master at this, will have him at his very best for this race.
00:57:50Does that mean I'm picking him?
00:57:51No, I'm picking Fulls Toronto in here.
00:57:53But he won this race last year, then had a long laugh and came back and ran very well in an allowance race at Del Mar at a mile.
00:58:02Then ran pretty good in the Goodwood State, grade one behind Nevada Beach.
00:58:06And I think the mile and eighth was a little bit too long for him.
00:58:09At a mile, he's six for nine lifetime, three for four at Del Mar.
00:58:14I am definitely worried about Nysos.
00:58:16I think Fulls Toronto's got a lot of things to suggest that he is going to get the job done for Jon Sandler.
00:58:22Give me some Bob.
00:58:24I'll take a Bob Baffert Xacta.
00:58:27Nysos, terrific.
00:58:29Pumped up, ready to go.
00:58:31If all Bob's horse is running, Nysos is the one I think I can hang my hat on and rely on Nysos to win.
00:58:38So I'm going to have Nysos on top with Citizen Bull underneath.
00:58:43And it could be Nysos on top of goal-oriented.
00:58:46I didn't know which way you were going to go there between Citizen Bull and goal-oriented.
00:58:50I'm not even looking at goal-orientated.
00:58:51Yeah, I mean, you know, I got a lot of respect for a lot of horses in this race.
00:58:58Hell, we've got the Kentucky Derby winner from last year, Mystic Dan, in there too.
00:59:01But to me, it's Nysos.
00:59:02There's another favorite, Ben Tornado in the sprint, and Nysos in the dirt mile that I'm not going to try to beat.
00:59:08Next race up on the card is the Breeders' Cup Philly and Mayer Turf.
00:59:14I'm sticking.
00:59:15You're sticking to beating the favorites.
00:59:16I'm sticking to the Europeans.
00:59:18Take a look at Gazoro, who's the number five horse, seven to two in the morning line, owned by Peter Brandt.
00:59:24Last time I got stuffed in the Arc de Triomphe, but I can't hold that against it.
00:59:29A three-year-old filly going in the Arc, and she just was in over her head.
00:59:33But the two starts before that, the Pre Vermeule and the Pre de Dian, very, very good races.
00:59:39Particularly the Pre de Dian back at Chanty in June 15th.
00:59:42I think that this horse is going to be ready to run a very good race, and it's interesting to see Peter Brandt in the winner's circle.
00:59:49Do you think if Brandt the horse wins on Friday, Peter Brandt will be in the winner's circle for that?
00:59:54I don't know.
00:59:55That's a good question.
00:59:56But Gazoro is my pick in there.
00:59:59So, guys?
01:00:01All right.
01:00:01I'm a big fan of She Feels Pretty.
01:00:03You know, I've been saying for a long time she's the best turf filly mare in America.
01:00:07I do believe she is.
01:00:08I do not like a mile and three-eighths for a horse that runs as aggressively early as she does, and the outside draw is not going to help that either.
01:00:17She has a lot of natural speed, so that'll – anyway, to me, this is the Charlie Appleby.
01:00:22If it's not Rebel's Romance, I think it's either going to be Diamond Rain or Cinderella's Dream.
01:00:31And I think Cinderella's Dream on paper maybe is a little bit over the top.
01:00:39You know, I haven't really loved her last couple of races, so I don't think she's in absolute peak form.
01:00:46Diamond Rain should have beaten She Feels Pretty probably in the EP Taylor.
01:00:50It didn't break.
01:00:51She got the Euro break, so maybe that'll happen again.
01:00:54But, yeah, I'll take Diamond Rain at 6-1.
01:00:57I like Diamond Rain in here.
01:01:00I am not using She Feels Pretty for the reasons you mentioned.
01:01:05She just can't relax.
01:01:07She just simply can't.
01:01:08Horrible draw for See the Fire on the Outside for Andrew Balding.
01:01:12I'm going to trust in Ocean Murphy, and hopefully he can work out some kind of trip.
01:01:18I thought she was best in the Prix d'Opera last time out.
01:01:21She's going to feel some firm turf under her feet.
01:01:24She's looked very good out here for trainer Andrew Balding.
01:01:28So I like her.
01:01:29And then Balesa keeps catching my eye for Miguel Clamont and Moyglaire Studd,
01:01:36coming off a nice win in the Flower Bowl at Saratoga on firm turf.
01:01:41She's huge, big, beautiful daughter of Sayoni, and she's 20-1.
01:01:48I'm definitely using her in some kind of wager at some point.
01:01:52As promised, each one of our people on the show have been given $100 in mythical money
01:02:00to bet any way they want in the Breeders' Cup, and you'll see our picks up on the screen shortly.
01:02:07I went with Ted Noffey in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Exacto with Blackout Time,
01:02:14but I'm not putting Ted Noffey necessarily on top.
01:02:18I really think Blackout Time has a chance to beat him here.
01:02:22So I went with a $30 Exacto Ted Noffey over Blackout Time and a $20 Exacto Blackout Time over Ted Noffey.
01:02:33Then my other bet will be in the Breeders' Cup turf,
01:02:36and I'm so convinced the Europeans are going to dominate this race.
01:02:42I wish they had like a quintifecta, and I would bet them 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
01:02:48But Mini Hawk, and as Randy so aptly summed it up,
01:02:53and Rebels Romance and Mini Hawk are absolutely the two horses to beat,
01:02:59and they should, I think they'll really well run one, too, in some order.
01:03:03So I have a $10 Exacto box with Rebels Romance and Mini Hawk.
01:03:06I know Randy didn't like Wimbledon Hawkeye.
01:03:08I think the horse is at a price that's worth throwing in.
01:03:12So I have a $5 Exacto box, Mini Hawk, Rebels Romance, and Wimbledon Hawkeye.
01:03:18Hopefully, at the end of the day, I'll have a lot more than $100 in my bank account.
01:03:22Mythical?
01:03:23Is Sue not just giving us $100 to gamble with?
01:03:26Yeah, I wondered about that.
01:03:28It's not mythical.
01:03:29Don't ask me.
01:03:30I'm not the boss.
01:03:31Come on, Sue.
01:03:32It's $100.
01:03:32I'm giving you actual money.
01:03:34It's actual money.
01:03:35Nothing mythical about it.
01:03:37Okay.
01:03:38It's actual money?
01:03:40It's actual money.
01:03:41Oh, baby.
01:03:42I love that.
01:03:42So you're going to make the bets for us online?
01:03:47I was going to Venmo you $100 each.
01:03:49Damn, this is exciting.
01:03:51I thought it was just mythical.
01:03:52Real money.
01:03:53I love it.
01:03:56Do you want to change your bets now?
01:03:59Yeah.
01:03:59All right, Zoe.
01:04:02What you got?
01:04:03I'm keeping it quite simple.
01:04:05The Distaff, I'm going to do a $20 Xacta box with a long shot I didn't even mention.
01:04:12I'm going Darth Vader and Regaled for Whit Beckman.
01:04:17I was just like, who in here is a big, big price and looks really good on the racetrack?
01:04:24And it's Darth Vader and Regaled.
01:04:27So I'm swinging for the fences there.
01:04:28I'll have $20 to win on Jonquil, please, Bill, if you don't mind.
01:04:33And then $20 to win on See the Fire in the Philly and Mare Turf.
01:04:39And then I'm going to do a straight Xacta in the Mile, the Dirt Mile, Nysos, $20 over Citizen Bowl.
01:04:47And that's it.
01:04:48That's my $100 spent out right there.
01:04:50Not getting fancy.
01:04:51I thought about just putting $100 to win on Ben Tornado.
01:04:55But then, and now that I know it's real money, maybe that's what I should have done.
01:04:58But, yeah, I want action.
01:05:01Give me action.
01:05:02So I got, what, three, four, seven bets in here.
01:05:06I mentioned the long shots on Friday.
01:05:08Not long shots, moderate horses.
01:05:10Linda Liu, Ultimate Love, Street Beast.
01:05:12If one of them win, it'll be a profit on Friday, I think.
01:05:15So $10 to win on each one of those.
01:05:17Darth Vader and Ben Tornado.
01:05:18I think Nysos is going to be too short of a price.
01:05:20So those are my two win bets earlier on the card.
01:05:23And then the turf.
01:05:24The trifecta that I talked about with Minnehawk and Rebels Romance on top of Amalok.
01:05:29Back and forth with Minnehawk and Rebels Romance.
01:05:32Amalok in the third place.
01:05:33Locked in there.
01:05:34And $10 tries on each of those.
01:05:36Those are my place.
01:05:37All right.
01:05:38Good stuff, guys.
01:05:40Let's hope that we all have a lot more money in our pockets on Saturday evening than we do now.
01:05:46I love this.
01:05:47Don't be booking my bets.
01:05:48Don't be booking my bets, Bill.
01:05:50What's that, Zoe?
01:05:51I'm sorry.
01:05:52Don't be booking my bets.
01:05:54I won't do that.
01:05:55Because then your long shots will come in and I'll owe you $3,000.
01:05:59That's the...
01:06:00Bill's going to be regaled.
01:06:02Yeah.
01:06:03Okay.
01:06:03Maybe you'll have it.
01:06:04All right.
01:06:04What about on a four to five shot?
01:06:06I'll book it.
01:06:06I'm not booking any 20 to one.
01:06:07It is time for the First TV Work of the Week.
01:06:13The Work of the Week, of course, brought to you by First TV on Sunday.
01:06:17Straight No Chaser worked four furlongs in 49 seconds flat ahead of his title defense in the Breeders' Cup sprint.
01:06:23Now, things didn't go all that smoothly.
01:06:25He did get some unwanted company that jumped in at the quarter ball, but exercise rider and assistant Juan Landero has managed to anchor him back and work him very nicely.
01:06:36Indeed, a good work for Straight No Chaser coming in, who most recently finished third in the Grade II Santa Anita Sprint Championship on September the 28th.
01:06:44Last year, Straight No Chaser won the sprint by half a length to clinch the Eclipse Award as North America's Outstanding Sprinter.
01:06:53Now, he'll look to join Elite Power as a two-time winner.
01:06:57He took it down in 22-23.
01:06:59Roy H, 2017-2018, and Midnight Loop 2007-2008.
01:07:06He's looking, of course, to become a two-time winner as well.
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01:08:04West Point Thoroughbreds.
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01:08:08Visit westpointtv.com.
01:08:12And the TD and Riders Room brought to you by West Point Thoroughbreds, which welcome more than 100 partners at the Breeders' Cup this week.
01:08:20That's a hell of a party.
01:08:21Three runners that West Point has in the World Championships at Del Mar.
01:08:26First Intricate Spirit, the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
01:08:29Two for three lifetime.
01:08:31Super Corridora, who just broke her maiden impressively, is running in the Juvenile Phillies.
01:08:36They will lead things off on Friday.
01:08:38And then Saturday, West Point has Baba in her send-off performance in the Philly and Mare Sprint a few days before the daughter of Gunrunner.
01:08:47The grade one winner goes through the ring at the Keeneland November sale.
01:08:52For more information on becoming a West Point partner, you can check out www.westpointtv.com.
01:09:02Well, that's a wrap on this week's show.
01:09:04I hope everybody enjoyed our take on the Breeders' Cup.
01:09:07We'll be back, of course, next week to wrap things up.
01:09:10I want to thank my partners in crime, Randy Moss and Zoe Cabman.
01:09:14I want to thank the people that work behind the scenes to make this show what it is.
01:09:18That's Sue Finley, Katie Petruniak, Anthony LaRocca, and Aaliyah LaRocca.
01:09:22Have a great Breeders' Cup Friday and Saturday, everybody, and we'll see you next week.
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