00:00And with more on Tropical Storm, Melissa, and what to expect in the days ahead, we are joined now by AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist, John Porter.
00:07John, this storm is very, very problematic here in so many ways, especially considering where it is geographically, the rate at which it's moving, and perhaps the infrastructure in place.
00:18So, can you give us kind of a reset on what's going on right now?
00:21Well, the storm is in the process of better organizing. Right now, the low-level center is actually west of where we see all the oranges here, which is the deep thunderstorm activity.
00:32We expect some of those thunderstorms to start wrapping around the low-level center, and that's as the storm could continue to probably slowly intensify here over the coming day or so as it starts pulling to the north and west.
00:45We expect maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour right now, but it's going to be a slow-moving storm, and that's why we're so concerned about the risk for life-threatening flooding across parts of the Caribbean.
00:57And, John, we have our own eye path here at AccuWeather for every storm of the tropics, and every storm is so different.
01:05There's a different level of certainty as you go out.
01:07We take this forecast out seven days as opposed to with the government source there with the National Hurricane Center.
01:13But why, can you explain to our viewers why this fans out so broadly from the Turks and Caicos to areas south of Jamaica?
01:21Well, because there's a wide range of potential areas where the storm could be.
01:25This is where AccuWeather hurricane experts are indicating that the storm could be located over the next seven days along the track here,
01:32which could range from a quick-moving storm that comes up over the Dominican Republic and Haiti toward the Turks and Caicos by seven days from now,
01:42or the storm could also be further west in the Caribbean Sea.
01:47And the most likely track is what our hurricane experts have plotted here.
01:51And notice the thing that strikes you right away is how closely these points are.
01:56That means the storm is not going to be moving, and that means heavy rain, sometimes rain rates of three to four inches per hour,
02:03on day after day across parts of Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic especially.
02:10And that is why we're so concerned in the mountainous terrain there for the risk of catastrophic flooding.
02:16And this could even evolve tragically into a humanitarian crisis should heavy rain persist over the same areas for multiple days.
02:24It's a very concerning setup.
02:26And, John, the rain is going to be the main emphasis, but we do want to briefly acknowledge the wind.
02:31What are we expecting in terms of wind before we get back to that rain conversation?
02:34Wind gusts of 60 to 80 miles per hour here across parts of Jamaica and Haiti in particular.
02:40A hurricane watch in effect across Haiti at this time.
02:44And that rainfall.
02:45Our hearts go out to those in the path of the storm, especially in Haiti.
02:48They've had such a difficult time there.
02:49Decade after decade, a lot of challenges, the earthquake in 2010 that killed over 100,000 people, subestimates far worse.
02:56In this case, what kind of landscape is out there, and how will the rain interact with that?
03:01Well, the problem is, look, we have 12 to 18 inches of rain focused from just south of the capital city of Port-au-Prince in Haiti,
03:09along the southern coast of Haiti, out toward the southern coast of the Dominican Republic,
03:13and also across parts of northeastern Jamaica, north and east of Kingston.
03:17And that is a big problem, because look at the terrain in Haiti.
03:22You can see mountains, especially along that peninsula here to the south,
03:26where some elevations are as high as almost 9,000 feet.
03:31There's been a lot of deforestation across portions of Haiti, lots of trees that are no longer there.
03:37So that is going to amplify the runoff from heavy rainfall.
03:40And in the areas of steep terrain, that rain, when it comes too fast, too furious,
03:45can run off very quickly into creeks and streams and rivers and result in catastrophic flooding.
03:52And population-wise, we're looking at a population very similar to that of Pennsylvania.
03:56So it's not a geographically huge country, but it is densely populated,
03:59and more than half of the people in Haiti live in urban areas there.
04:03Port-au-Prince, by far the largest city, and none of these areas are too far from the mountains.
04:07So, John, what does this look like here with our AccuWeather Real Impact Scale rating?
04:11Well, we're in the process that we've just, our hurricane experts have just decided to make some upgrades to this.
04:16We're going to be talking about an AccuWeather Real Impact Scale for hurricanes of a 4 across the western Caribbean,
04:23with a special emphasis on the extreme risk to life and property across parts of southern Haiti
04:29and the southern part of the Dominican Republic and northeastern part of Jamaica here, driven by the heavy rainfall.
04:37Okay, so that's breaking news there.
04:39Late-breaking information here from our team at AccuWeather with Chief Meteorologist John Porter leading the charge.
04:45And, John, I didn't intend to double-click here.
04:47But going back to our risk area here for impact, we're still concerned about South Florida.
04:51We're not out of the woods in that area, but what's the most likely scenario here as this plays out?
04:56Right, we want to point out for South Florida, there's a lot of time to watch this.
05:00This storm is going to be slowly meandering, as we mentioned, in the Caribbean for much of the next seven days,
05:07if not beyond maybe perhaps the next ten days.
05:10So mid-next week, toward the end of the month, is when we have to watch to see if this dip in the jet stream
05:17could draw the storm close enough to South Florida to result in wind and rain impacts there.
05:23That's not for certain.
05:24In fact, we think we assessed at about a 20% risk at this time.
05:28But we've got to keep that option open.
05:29It can't be ruled out yet.
05:31Big dip in the jet stream is going to take the storm, wherever it's located, in this general vicinity,
05:35and draw it to the north.
05:36And we're going to have to closely monitor where it is at that time.
05:39But until then, there may be a lot of people who are in need of help across parts of the Caribbean.
05:44That's why we want to highlight that, so people can be better prepared and stay safer.
05:49All right.
05:49AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
05:51Thanks again, John.
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