00:00Let's first start with the impacts. Let's go right to the major problem here.
00:04You're looking at their impact or the risks to lives and property.
00:08And keep this in mind, this only goes until Tuesday.
00:12There will be impacts from Melissa, probably across Cuba, as we get into Wednesday, Thursday.
00:19But let's take it one step at a time.
00:22We have a very slow-moving tropical storm, likely to become a hurricane, Bernie, as you've been talking about.
00:28And as a result of that, we're talking about an extreme risk here.
00:32We've been talking about this for days here across parts of the Western Caribbean.
00:36From southern parts of the Dominican Republic toward the southern part of Haiti, out toward Jamaica.
00:42With an extreme risk driven by the risk for life-threatening major flooding,
00:48which could result in catastrophic damage in some areas and in places of steep terrain.
00:52We've got a lot of mountains in here.
00:54That's varied terrain and that can lead to mudslides and landslides.
00:59This is a very serious situation here where there may be a large number of people in need of the basics.
01:06Food, water, and medical care.
01:08Very concerning setup here.
01:11So if you have family members or you're watching us from this part of the Caribbean
01:15or have other interests in this area, please be aware this can become a very serious situation here.
01:22That's why we've been stressing that for days.
01:24Also, that is why AccuWeather experts are utilizing the power of the AccuWeather Real Impact Scale for hurricanes to rate this a four.
01:33And look at this.
01:33This is burning right now something that doesn't even have a rating.
01:37It's just a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, but a four on AccuWeather's real impact scale for hurricanes.
01:45Yeah.
01:45And there's the words.
01:46Less than one begins some damage.
01:48Up to a five is catastrophic damage to large population areas.
01:53The reason we have this as a four is the first bullet point, as you've already discussed.
02:00That is why, and we're highlighting that as a four because of the widespread risk for catastrophic flooding.
02:08And these are words that we do not use only in the highest level concern, the type of concern that we had, for example,
02:16in advance of the flooding from Helene across the southern Appalachians in the United States.
02:23That type of flooding, plus worse, because we're talking about deeper tropical moisture, higher levels of moisture in the air in the Caribbean, and also higher mountains.
02:33Some of the mountains there, Bernie, are 9,000 feet.
02:36All right.
02:36Now, let's talk about the rain area.
02:39There is a way out of this for Jamaica, depending, you know, a farther southern track.
02:45We'll get to that in a second.
02:46But everything we look at right now, this is our best estimate of the rain.
02:50That puts a 12 to 18-inch area of rain with an AccuWeather local storm max of 30.
02:58And if the storm slows down, that's not going to be enough either.
03:01We're going to have to take that number up should we become more confident of persistent rain bans in the same areas.
03:07That means that somebody may receive 30 inches of rain from the storm, but a widespread 12 to 18 from the south coast of the Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, generally south of the capital city of Port-au-Prince, and then out toward much of Jamaica, where there can be 12 to 18 inches of rain.
03:24And that is a lot of rain in mountainous terrain, major impacts on the way.
03:29And take a look at satellite.
03:30I mean, look at all the tropical moisture.
03:31Look at our infrared satellite picture.
03:33All that red is showing you that the atmosphere or the satellite is seeing cold cloud tops.
03:38That means they're high in the atmosphere.
03:39That means there are rain and thunderstorms.
03:42Now, I noted this before, John, that west-northwest movement yesterday, that was at 12, 13 miles per hour.
03:49Now it's 2.
03:50So that's signaling that the steering influence on Melissa is changing.
03:57And that's where it starts to come tricky on where this is going to go.
04:01Poorly organized right now.
04:04But let's talk about the possibilities with the AccuWeather I-Path.
04:07Right.
04:08As it slows down, we think it's going to get tugged more to the north here and eventually the west into the weekend and early next week, generally south of Jamaica.
04:17But that's still going to be close enough to Hispaniola and Jamaica, of course, for those persistent rain bands, hence the concern about the flooding.
04:25And look at the track.
04:26When you look at the AccuWeather exclusive I-Path, and by the way, this is by our hurricane experts here at AccuWeather,
04:31every bit of this meticulously considered in terms of where the right side of the window is going to be,
04:37where the left side of the window and where the most likely track is.
04:40Notice how close these points are, Bernie.
04:42This is going to be crawling in the Caribbean.
04:45Yeah, and that's why we're worried about the heavy rain.
04:47Now, there is a possibility of a north movement.
04:50We think that is getting less and less likely.
04:52So we're starting to believe the I-Path would be somewhere where you see the forecast now and perhaps a little farther off to the south.
05:01Now, that becomes dangerous because the farther south you go, the less wind shear that we're looking at.
05:08So while we have a Category 2 on the wind intensity, this could easily become a 3, 4, or even 5 if it stays far enough south,
05:18which could also mean that Jamaica can escape the heaviest rain.
05:23But no matter what the track is, John, someone's going to pay a price with this in the Western Caribbean.
05:30Yes, and it may be, as you mentioned, if the storm ends up being further south, that would be good news for Hispaniola.
05:37But it's bad news eventually for parts of Jamaica and Cuba because it will be intensifying more and heading in that direction.
05:44So a big problem somewhere here in the Western Caribbean.
05:47All right.
05:47Now, this is a map that you and I have been talking about for days.
05:50All right.
05:50Does it impact the United States?
05:52We're talking with our long-range experts, meteorologists Joe Lumberg and Paul Paslerk,
05:57because they give us the guidance on where that dip in the jet stream is.
06:01Given where we think it is now and the positioning of Melissa early next week,
06:06it seems likely this would stay well east of Florida.
06:09But it's not out of the question if Melissa is a little farther to the west.
06:13And that dip in the jet stream, instead of being over to the Florida panhandle,
06:17is, let's say, over by Louisiana.
06:18Then we have a problem.
06:19Exactly.
06:20We still can't rule out wind and rain impacts across south Florida.
06:24We think it's still about a 20 percent chance.
06:26Then also watch up the coast here later this week because later next week, I should say,
06:32again, you have a lot of time on this to monitor.
06:34This isn't until next week.
06:36And it's the middle to end of next week toward the end of the month.
06:39Look out.
06:40This storm could end up closer even to the northeast coast.
06:44Lots of monitor here.
06:45We'll be following it all here at AccuWeather with our team over the coming days
06:49and on the free AccuWeather app.
06:51And that was pointed out by Paul Pasteluk yesterday to watch out.
06:55It could actually get closer to the east coast than the east coast of Florida
06:58because of what he sees down the road.
07:01AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
