00:00Our greater concern is going to be down this way from eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas.
00:05And again, we also have that secondary zone of thunderstorms into the Nebraska panhandle.
00:09We'll keep an eye out for any new development there.
00:12And again, potential for a few more severe cells popping out there into the eastern part of Colorado.
00:18The storm system is strengthening overall.
00:20It's a pretty strong one.
00:22We do have some snow on the west side of this up into the Tetons and rain on the north side.
00:27There's even a little lightning up into an area west of Minot.
00:30But for the most part, the severe thunderstorm threat is going to be south and east to the center of low pressure.
00:35And it's windy out there, too.
00:36So our severe risk zone, it does include eastern Colorado.
00:39There's that area around Burlington, Colorado, and east into western Kansas, Nebraska, south central, south Dakota, I should say.
00:47And the greatest question here regarding severe weather potential is down into western parts of the panhandle region.
00:55We may see storms develop there.
00:57And if any do, they could easily become severe.
00:59But we're most confident in frequent thunderstorms crossing I-80 there east of North Platte.
01:04So tomorrow, we jump ahead to a day with some pretty good warmth all the way up into Duluth.
01:0967 degrees there, 71 in Minneapolis.
01:12And scattered storms may break out as far north as the shores of Lake Superior.
01:16The severe risk is going to be greater into Minneapolis, La Crosse, Wisconsin, Waterloo, Iowa.
01:21And it'll be a great day into Madison off to the east.
01:24They're getting ready to host Ohio State this weekend.
01:28But we have scattered thunderstorms here that could become severe.
01:30And some of these will be severe on Friday into Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, up into Des Moines and Kirksville, Missouri.
01:38Potentially as far south as Oklahoma City and Tulsa and Joplin, Missouri.
01:41So we've got to keep an eye out for that.
01:43We'll press pause tomorrow.
01:44Look out for one concern here around 6 p.m.
01:46This is when some are getting ready for high school football.
01:49Nothing yet near Wichita or Enid, Oklahoma.
01:53But that's around the time that storms will begin to fire off.
01:55So we're going to go from no storms on radar to development right over some of these high school football games in the southern plains.
02:01So that's kind of a life safety hazard there with lightning developing.
02:04Sometimes it's a little nicer when you can see a storm coming on radar before a setup here.
02:09Instead of a setup here where they just develop over your head.
02:11Yeah, that's where it feels like a surprise and can catch you a little unprepared for, you know, keeping lightning safety in mind.
02:17As we look to Saturday, you might have noticed on future radar there.
02:21We actually end up seeing a new storm system develop right behind that initial front that we've been tracking all across the country.
02:29We end up with stronger storms for Saturday.
02:32For the last several days, we've had this moderate risk area, which is our level 2 out of 4 on the AccuWeather scale.
02:38And I'm pointing that out because it gives you an idea of the confidence level in this forecast.
02:43When we know several days in advance that it's going to be bad enough, the severe weather is going to be widespread enough to have that moderate risk area.
02:52You should plan for all types of severe weather, especially we've had the risk of isolated tornadoes on the map for several days as well.
03:00This is the first day that we're adding that on.
03:02All types of severe weather really possible here.
03:05So let's break it down a little bit more.
03:07Take a look at another model that goes out a little bit further than what Jeff was showing you here.
03:10It's not going to get as precise with how heavy the rain is necessarily, but it gives you a good overall big picture view a few days out.
03:19So starting very early Saturday morning, we start with some rainy conditions into places like Illinois, into Indiana,
03:27and then we start to see more of this system develop farther to the south.
03:31It's the late afternoon and the evening.
03:33That's when you need to be concerned about the thunderstorms, especially on the strong to severe side.
03:38Does it mean you won't have any strikes of lightning earlier in the day?
03:41No, but it's not as likely for these to be severe weather threats, right?
03:46It's later in the day that we typically see those, and that certainly looks to be the case with this storm.
03:51So 5 p.m., some widespread rainfall here, and Arkansas really is our focus here.
03:56It's not the only area in our moderate-risk area, but it's where a lot of this is going to be zeroed in on.
04:02We continue to play this out.
04:03This system is going to work its way north and east.
04:06So as we look ahead to Sunday, we get into the Ohio Valley and into the southeast for our focus.
04:11Things weaken a little bit.
04:13We're not talking about as high level of a severe weather threat, but it's there.
04:18I want to zero in on Saturday with the hail, but this also gives you an idea of when more of the widespread severe storms are expected here with our hail potential.
04:28Any shade of purple that you're seeing, that's the potential of hail.
04:31The darker the purple, the greater the risk.
04:33So we're not talking about large hail.
04:35We're not talking about huge widespread hail storms.
04:38But as we get into the late afternoon, the evening hours, it's there, and especially into Arkansas.
04:44That's why I was pointing that out so specifically here.
04:47It's the wind and the hail that you should be most concerned about for Saturday.
04:49But again, isolated tornado threat, that means you should expect a couple of tornado warnings throughout the day.
04:55A quick look at Sunday.
04:57Again, it's a lower-end threat, level 1 out of 4 now.
05:00But damaging wind gusts are what you're most likely to see.
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