00:00Let's go back to that story we were telling you about earlier on the eve of the second anniversary of the October 7th attacks, the start of indirect talks between Hamas and Israel.
00:09Let's go to London and international negotiator Nomi Bar-Yakov, who is with the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.
00:17Thank you for speaking with us here on France 24.
00:20Thank you very much, Francois, for having me on.
00:22Talk us through what, first of all, when you hear the Qatari mediators talk about having to iron out the mechanisms, what does that tell you?
00:34It's the mechanisms for the release of the hostages.
00:37They haven't agreed on the, they've agreed on the categories, 250 Palestinians serving life sentences and 1,700 Palestinians arrested after the 7th of October.
00:49But they haven't agreed on the names and those big issues there.
00:54For example, Israel objects to the release of Marwan Barghouti, the most prominent Fatah detainee, and also to Ahmad Sadat from the head of the PFLP, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
01:10So there's one issue with the names.
01:12The other issue with the mechanism is how do you actually get them out, what time, who is going to be released first in the plan, in the 20-point plan.
01:24The second plan after Netanyahu amended the original 21-point plan, it looks like the mechanism agreed upon was that the first, all the hostages will be released and then the prisoners.
01:39But I assume that that is a thorny issue, which is currently under review.
01:44And that's what it means.
01:46It means how do you actually get the prisoners, the hostages and the prisoners exchanged.
01:54After that Israeli strike targeting Qatar, it's difficult sometimes to get your head around it.
02:01These are the people who are targeted, the ones we saw in those images.
02:04Yes, exactly. So the attack, as you know, failed.
02:10I mean, there were some unfortunate members who passed away, but none of them who were killed.
02:17But none of them were the Hamas leaders, the senior Hamas leadership led by Halil al-Hayya, who is currently leading the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
02:26They all survived. So, indeed, I mean, it was, it's a very, you know, it's a very serious issue and they know that they are under threat.
02:36And President Trump had personally guaranteed that he will ensure that they will not be targeted by Israel in Qatar.
02:47Can this fly? You're hearing all these endorsements of the plan from here in Europe, for instance, where everyone's rallying behind it.
02:55Well, I mean, the plan is a big word, right? I mean, it's a very, very long plan.
03:00The first stage of the plan, which is the release of the hostages and the exchange of prisoners, has not been agreed yet.
03:07And because also Hamas objecting to the proposed Israeli lines of withdrawal.
03:12And then there's, of course, the question of aid. But the thorniest issue is where will Israel withdraw to?
03:17And as I said earlier, also the which prisoners are going to be the names of the prisoners, the identities of the personalities, as opposed to the categories.
03:26The plan itself is has a lot of gaps in it. It's a framework.
03:31It's not really a detailed plan. And the devil is always in the details.
03:34And I say, first, let's get through the first stage. But let's make sure this time, unlike January, where Israel agreed to the first phase, went through with the first phase of the ceasefire,
03:47but then thwarted it in March and imposed also a food embargo, which caused famine.
03:52This plan needs an awful lot of gap filling and it needs an implementation enforcement mechanism, which is currently lacking.
04:03So it's a long, long, long, long, long way from peace.
04:06But there is some hope with an awful lot of caution, as long as there is commitment and as long as U.S.
04:13President Donald Trump continues to exercise the leverage that he has and that he's currently exercising.
04:20The big problem, of course, is that... Sorry, go ahead, Francois.
04:22I was going to say, does that leverage give Benjamin Netanyahu enough wiggle room so he can tell his far-right coalition partners,
04:32look, it's not me, it's coming from Washington?
04:37Well, I mean, they know it's coming from Washington and they have said that they will stay through the first phase, meaning the hostage release.
04:44Of course, they'd like to take credit for that as, you know, the government in power.
04:48But two of the parties, the party of Itamar Ben-Vir and the party of Bezalel Smotrich, have said that they will leave the coalition if Hamas isn't destroyed and if there isn't a resumption of the war.
05:02And, you know, they want the total destruction of Hamas.
05:05And clearly that won't be on the cards.
05:07So I think we can foresee a departure of those two parties.
05:10And then there are two scenarios, either early elections or a safety net that has been promised by the leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid, and other opposition parties.
05:21The entire opposition is willing to keep the government in place in order to secure the plan.
05:29Noe Bar-Yakov, so many thanks for joining us from London.
05:32Noe Bar-Yakov, so many thanks for joining us from London.
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