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Examining Tommy Castellanos' Strategy in Key Game Against Miami
SportsGrid
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45 minutes ago
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00:00
Let's focus on the quarterback position, Joe, here.
00:02
Tommy Castellanos, 184.5 is his live passing prop right now.
00:06
If Florida State wins this football game, can he stay under that price point?
00:09
Yes, because his number is, I believe, 42.5 in the rushing attack.
00:14
I did take the over.
00:15
But, again, he could have 80, 90, 100 yards on the ground,
00:18
especially if they play man-to-man coverage.
00:21
And if Florida State runs the football with Sawchuk and those running backs,
00:25
they're going to sustain drives.
00:26
He might not have to do a whole lot in the passing attack.
00:30
So, again, could he get to 170, 175, and still rush for 100 yards?
00:34
Absolutely, and they win the game.
00:36
For him to get through that total, it's up to Beck.
00:40
Beck has to push the tempo in this matchup and say, game on.
00:44
We're going to light your defense up.
00:45
Let's see if you can match a score for score.
00:47
Mid-230s there for Carson Beck, actually around 235.5,
00:50
depending on where you're shopping at this point.
00:52
So when we take a look at those rushing props,
00:54
we know, Joe, that we have a mobile quarterback,
00:56
and that's where I'm going to start again with Tommy Castellanos, 42.5.
00:59
Yeah.
01:00
When you talk about, like, the great indicators of football games
01:03
where how can you win outside of the numbers,
01:05
it's your quarterback making plays off schedule.
01:08
What does Castellanos have to do, particularly in the running game, Joe,
01:11
if they want to be effective?
01:12
Well, again, I think he's got to – they have to have design RPOs for him.
01:16
And second, don't get into long third downs,
01:19
because if you watch the overtime period and you watch the fourth quarter play out,
01:23
when he was in third and 12 and third and 15, Virginia brought blitzes,
01:27
and he did struggle.
01:29
He made some great plays, the touchdown to tie the game up at 35.
01:32
But is that going to be consistent in this matchup if they're bringing all-out pressure
01:37
and rolling Tommy Castellanos out?
01:39
No.
01:39
That's why third and three, third and four, that's up to Miami to really stuff him
01:45
and put him in those long third downs.
01:46
So, again, I think you have to have design rollouts early on to break contain
01:52
and see if he can put some pressure out on there and utilize it with his legs.
01:56
Again, it comes down to the offensive line protecting him.
02:00
And I believe in Gus Malzahn.
02:01
In this situation, big-time game, which staff do you buy into more?
02:06
I know you're a Miami fan, but up until this point, Cristobal,
02:09
he got the week one performance.
02:11
He's ready for this.
02:12
You think he's ready on a road type of performance?
02:13
He's got three timeouts.
02:14
He knows when to use them.
02:16
He knows when to be aggressive.
02:17
I give the edge to Malzahn and Norvell here.
02:20
After the spot.
02:20
We'll see what we get out of Carson Beck in this game, Joe.
02:22
But we have some talented wide receivers to deal with as well.
02:24
The three top guys in the odds market for yardage in this game,
02:28
C.J. Daniels, Miami Hurricanes, 50 1⁄2 yards.
02:31
Malachi Tony, up to 57 1⁄2 yards.
02:33
And there's Deuce Robinson for Florida State, Joe, at 64 1⁄2.
02:37
I think there's going to be points in this game, which means big-time plays.
02:41
And I look toward those wide receivers, Joe.
02:42
They've got to get it done.
02:43
Yeah, Tony's the guy.
02:44
I mean, Tony, 22 receptions, 268.
02:47
And a touchdown, Daniels is more of a possession guy.
02:50
He could take the top off the defense.
02:52
But Tony's the home run hitter.
02:54
I think when you look at the Florida State side,
02:56
obviously Deuce Robinson is the guy that stands out, 62 1⁄2.
03:01
Again, he was the big target for Thomas Castellanos.
03:04
And in a big game like this, you believe that this is all pure number ones.
03:09
I'm not going secondary wide receivers today.
03:11
Squirrel White?
03:14
He's probably going to have a cheap number today.
03:16
He has 19 1⁄2, Joe Squirrel.
03:18
That's what he had week one.
03:20
I left him.
03:20
All 30, 40, 50 on a big game?
03:24
A big break game?
03:26
Squirrel White could be an option just because if you're Miami, you take away Deuce Robinson.
03:31
Again, Squirrel White against Alabama had a 40-yarder, right?
03:34
So that's what Gus Malzahn did in that matchup.
03:37
He utilized a secondary option.
03:39
So let's not forget the running backs coming out of the backfield.
03:42
Fletcher from Miami and Florida State's running backs as well.
03:45
They created separation, getting them mismatched on linebackers.
03:48
You could have chunk plays.
03:49
If we're talking quarterbacks, which one has better success through the air?
03:53
It's got to be Beck.
03:54
Pay dirt picks, baby.
03:55
Who's getting in the end zone today?
03:56
If I would have told you, Joe, 1, 2, 3, 4.
03:58
The first four guys listed, Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami, Malachi Toney, Miami, C.J. Daniels, Miami, Jamar Brown, Miami.
04:07
Before we get a Gavin Solchuk here for FSU, who's hitting pay dirt in Miami, Florida State, Joe?
04:13
I would bet on Castellanos.
04:15
Plus 120, plus money.
04:17
Plus money.
04:18
Just because, again, you're talking about a guy that wants to take the game over.
04:22
And he played lights out last week, and they lost.
04:25
His receivers let him down in a rivalry game at home in a primetime atmosphere.
04:30
He could break contain.
04:31
He's going to look to score tonight.
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