00:00Hi there and welcome to the MetalVis 14-day outlook in which we discuss the most likely
00:04weather patterns for the UK up to and including the first few days of October.
00:10The first half of September though has certainly been wet.
00:13Many parts of the UK have had above average September rainfall already up to the first
00:1818 days of the month.
00:20And there is further heavy rain to come in places during the weekend, especially on Saturday
00:26as a weather front becomes slow moving across parts of the UK and an area of low pressure
00:31develops through central areas.
00:33And it's northern England, parts of the Midlands, Wales and the south west where we'll see the
00:36heaviest and most prolonged rain during Saturday itself, drier and brighter to the far north
00:42and the far south east, warm in the south east with a southerly airflow.
00:47The reason the rain is becoming slow moving is because this area of low pressure becomes
00:52trapped in a dip of the jet stream, this is what we call a trough and it actually becomes
00:56more elongated over the next few days as a large ridge in the jet stream pushes out north
01:04over the mid and north Atlantic allowing higher pressure to build in.
01:09And this is a significant change compared with the months so far where we saw a wide trough
01:13in the jet stream just acting as a conveyor sending us low pressure after low pressure.
01:19That means that although we will still see some wet weather during the first half of the
01:24weekend, once that's out of the way we eventually see that ridge in the Atlantic toppling over
01:30the UK bringing a much more settled spell of weather later in the weekend and into next
01:37week.
01:38With higher pressure directly over the UK Monday, Tuesday and then slowly pushing eastwards
01:44into Scandinavia.
01:45All the while, temperatures fall away because we replace the southerly winds that we start
01:50the weekend with with northerly winds.
01:53So below average temperatures but also much drier than it's been through the first half
01:59of the month.
02:00In fact, this shows the most likely areas where we'll see some wet weather on Tuesday the 23rd
02:04of September and the most likely weather pattern with high pressure extending across the UK.
02:09Just a hint there of some showery stuff still affecting the south east of England and always
02:14the chance of some showers coming in to the north of Scotland.
02:17In between a lot of fine weather and I think through the middle part of next week we're going
02:20to be talking about a lot of dry weather but also some overnight frosts in shelter spots and
02:27some fog patches during the mornings.
02:30Because high pressure sticks around and if anything it moves further east during the week ahead.
02:35This is the most likely weather pattern for the 24th of September.
02:39Easterly winds, still the chance of a few showers into the south east and the far north but otherwise
02:44for many parts yeah there will be patchy cloud around particularly in the east but also some
02:49bright days and a lot of dry settled weather.
02:54And only subtle changes through the rest of the week.
02:56Now this is again Wednesday the 24th of September and it shows how temperatures are likely to compare
03:03with average with colder than average temperatures on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday only gradually starting
03:11to rise back towards average later in the week as weather patterns change once again.
03:19Now this is the summary of the seven day pressure anomaly from the European models so this sums
03:25up all the model outputs 51 computer model runs and how they view the air pressure for Monday
03:33to Monday 22nd to the 29th of September higher than average pressure strongly signalled over
03:39the North Sea and over Scandinavia with an easterly airflow for the UK.
03:44So a lot of dry weather in fact this sums up the rainfall anomaly for the same period and
03:48it shows across the UK a marked contrast compared with the first half of the month much drier than
03:53average for most places.
03:56Fast forward to Saturday the 27th of September and the most likely weather pattern still has
04:01high pressure to the east.
04:03There's a hint there and this shows rainfall anomalies so where we've got the browns it's
04:08drier than average or where we've got the blues it's wetter than average.
04:11And there's a hint there of some rain out to the west of the UK with low pressure starting
04:16to turn up again from the west but some uncertainty about the speed at which that low pressure will
04:21arrive during that weekend. There's a 10% chance for example here that that low pressure will be a
04:26little closer and will bring some rain close to the west of the UK. So that's the main source of
04:32uncertainty later next week and into that weekend. How fast low pressure in the west will bring some
04:39outbreaks of rain into western areas. How much high pressure to the east will hold on and block weather
04:44systems from arriving because this is the 30th of September. And again it shows the most likely
04:50pattern is for high pressure to the east. So although we do have low pressure trying to move in
04:56there's no guarantee that it will succeed. The high to the east may well hang on and that is indeed
05:01showing up in a lot of the output at the moment with just some outbreaks of rain potentially reaching
05:07far western areas before eventually higher pressure extends more widely again by the start of
05:14October. But this time actually the suggestion is that higher pressure will be more out towards the
05:20west. And there are some signals coming through in lots of different computer models of a build in
05:25pressure this time not to the east but to the west of the UK towards the end of the first week of
05:32October. So the broad signals for the seven to 14 day outlook. High pressure to the east at first
05:38keeping a lot of dry weather and settled weather across the UK temperatures rebounding towards average
05:45after a cold start next week. Then the potential for an Atlantic high to build later that could
05:52potentially bring the chance of low pressure to the east of the UK and some showery stuff to the east
05:58also a colder wind direction once again. But overall the signal is there for drier weather during the
06:05next two weeks compared with September so far wouldn't be difficult would it given how wet it has
06:11been during the first half of the month but strong signals for a significantly different end to the
06:16month compared with how things started.
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