Met Office 14 Day Weather Outlook 02/05/25

Met Office

14 day weather outlook presented by Aidan McGivern.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 14-day outlook in which we discuss the most likely

00:04weather patterns after the next couple of weeks. Normally in the UK, forecasting two

00:09weeks of weather is fraught with uncertainty and we have to talk about various scenarios.

00:14And whilst it's true that forecasting two weeks ahead, you can never guarantee certain

00:19weather patterns, it's about as straightforward as it can get looking at the next two weeks,

00:25the first half of May. Now, let me explain. At the moment, we've got high pressure in charge.

00:31That high pressure has been recurring and becoming increasingly dominant across the UK

00:36during spring. It's been a remarkably dry spring so far, a remarkably sunny spring, a remarkably

00:42warm spring. In fact, the first of May, we saw 29.3 Celsius. Q, warmest to first of May on record.

00:50But that heat over the bank holiday weekend gets pushed aside. A big change comes along

00:56through Saturday for the north and east and then into Sunday for the rest of the UK.

01:01Cold air floods south and it's certainly going to feel chilly on that North Sea coast.

01:06But whilst we'll feel different this weekend because of the wind direction, high pressure

01:12is still very close to the UK. That's still going to block areas of rain, albeit still allow

01:19some showers into the east at times. And then by bank holiday Monday, for the vast majority,

01:23it's dry. Yeah, there'll be areas of cloud around. It won't be as sunny. It won't be as hot

01:27as it's been. But that high pressure is sticking around through the upcoming week. It's going to

01:33be centred around the north of the UK. And so it's still going to keep things dry, settled and

01:39increasingly sunny once again after a largely cloudy bank holiday Monday for many. It turns increasingly

01:44sunny. And that day by day, strong sunshine helps to lift the temperatures once again.

01:50So having seen a brief, relatively chilly spell on Sunday and into Monday, temperatures rise once

01:57again through the week ahead. Perhaps not quite as hot as it's been through this week, but certainly

02:02above average is looking likely. And these are the three most likely weather patterns for Tuesday

02:07the 6th of May. Most likely high pressure just to the northwest of the UK, dominating things across

02:13the UK. That's a 84% chance. But if you look at the second and third most likely weather patterns,

02:18there's not much difference. They're still showing high pressure. Although for parts of northwest

02:23Scotland, there is some rainfall signal there. And always the chance that as we go through the week

02:28ahead, we'll see some rain affecting the far north and northwest of Scotland with weak fronts

02:34passing by. Again, these are the three most likely weather patterns for Saturday the 10th of May.

02:39So we're fast forwarding a few days and there's little change in the UK's weather and indeed in

02:44that position of that high, always sitting over the north of the UK or just to the west. There is

02:51rain signalled across parts of Spain and to France as well. And these showers could just nudge up into

02:57the English Channel and affect southern counties at times, particularly during that weekend of the 10th

03:03of May. But it's too far out to be certain about this. What looks very likely is that throughout

03:09this week ahead, 5th to the 12th of May, we've got this strong high pressure anomaly. This is what

03:15this is showing from the European model, a summation of all of their simulations. And it's showing a strong

03:20high pressure anomaly just to the northwest of the UK, dominating things across the whole of the

03:26country. Fast forward to the following week, 12th to the 19th of May, and it maintains a strong

03:32high pressure anomaly to the west of the UK, extending across the whole of the country.

03:36So it looks likely as we head towards the middle of May as well, we're going to keep that high

03:41pressure certainly at first before anything more unsettled can arrive. And certainly for the next

03:49two weeks, high pressure is the dominant force for the UK's weather, keeping things dry and turning

03:55things progressively warmer as we head towards the middle of May. But of course, for the day-to-day

04:00detail, we'll keep you updated right here at the Met Office and you can find all of those

04:03updates on our YouTube channel. Bye-bye.

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