Following stunning victory, the real challenge now begins for Moldova’s pro-EU party: Governing

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00:00As neighboring Ukraine endures daily barrages from Russia, another former Soviet state went

00:15to the polls on Sunday. Moldova, which in recent times has seen a canceled presidential election,

00:22which had to see at least one candidate disqualified, and plenty of accusations

00:27of Russian meddling ahead of this poll. There were bomb scares at some of the polling stations,

00:34at consulates and embassies overseas. In the end, it was the pro-EU party handily winning

00:41re-election. Oliver Ferry has the story. A strong showing for Moldova's pro-European

00:48ruling party as it tightens its grip on power. The party of action and solidarity was dominant

00:54in Sunday's legislative elections, securing an overall majority, meaning it can rule

00:58without the help of smaller parties. In second place, the pro-Russian patriotic electoral bloc,

01:04followed by the Russia-friendly Alternativa. The election was seen as a pivotal choice between

01:09Moldova's path towards the European Union or a potential slide backwards into Moscow's orbit.

01:15Authorities say the vote Sunday didn't go without interference, with cyber attacks targeting

01:20election systems and hoax bomb scares at polling stations abroad. The ruling party is pointing

01:26the finger at Russia.

01:27We have proof of the money that Russia spent, or wanted to spend, and of course we have proof

01:35of attempts to bribe the voters in different regions of the country. But the results show

01:43that they failed. Officials in Moldova described the situation as a hybrid war, accusing the Kremlin

01:52of pouring hundreds of millions of euros into efforts to seize control and derail the country's

01:57European ambitions. Russia has denied the allegations, calling them russophobic and baseless.

02:03The patriotic electoral bloc had earlier in the day declared victory despite no exit polls

02:09being taken during the election and said the ruling PAS was in a state of panic. Last year,

02:15Moldovans narrowly approved a referendum supporting EU membership, while pro-Western President Maya

02:21Sandhu won a second term, despite allegations of the Kremlin meddling in that election too.

02:29Well, with us to talk about it is Jacques Rucnique, professor at the French Political Science

02:33Institute of Sciences Po. Thanks for being with us here on France 24. Are you surprised at

02:38the end it was almost an easy win for Maya Sandhu's party?

02:44Well, certainly easier than expected. The polls were suggesting a much closer race. One explanation

02:55would be that the dramatisation, the polarisation, the geopolitical stakes at this election allowed

03:05the party of the president to mobilise its electorate, and that made a difference. That would be one

03:13explanation. There is also what has been mentioned. Two parties have been barred from the vote from the

03:21election in the last week or so, but I don't think that that was so crucially important.

03:27Why was it not crucially important? Because these parties were recent creation, not very influential.

03:33You could have said, you know, it made a marginal influence. It's more the signal that you send.

03:39You know, if you bar a party just on the eve of an election, you better have a very good argument for

03:44that. Yeah, there is some contention about it, but the turnout was slightly higher. 54%.

03:49Yeah, you have about half of the electorate and the presidential party won by half of the vote.

03:58So that's quite easy. And the main opposition force has about quarter of the vote. So that's it.

04:05That's a quite convincing victory. It means that they won't have to search for a coalition,

04:13which would have been very difficult. That would have made, I think, the decision of the president

04:19much, much more difficult. And so from that point of view, the political stability should be there.

04:27It shouldn't encourage complacency because, you know, this government has been in place for the last

04:33four years. And the balance sheet is not that great. I mean, you have a growth in four years

04:42of half a percent. You have inflation over 60% in four years, 30% only for the last year. And I could

04:51go on like that. The performance of the government is not great.

04:58So that's the question. In this context, is the European Union doing too much or not enough? Let

05:04me ask you, because you have the leaders of France, Germany, and Poland, who recently in the campaign

05:12period went, you could say, to campaign in the capital. They each made speeches there. And there's

05:21this talk of EU accession by the year 2030. Is it raising expectations too much? Is it pushing?

05:29And can it follow through, especially if Moldova, again, has a hostile actor not so far from its

05:37borders? Well, it works. It works both ways. If you have a hostile actor like Russia, and if you have

05:46recently acquired European prospects, just to recall, Moldova used to be part of so-called EU

05:53neighborhood policy, that is cooperation with no accession. The war in Ukraine changed that.

06:02So in 2023, Ukraine and Moldova, I mean, Moldova, so to speak, got on the bandwagon, got the accession

06:13prospect. Now, the idea is to make good use of that prospect, because that prospect is a leverage

06:21for domestic reform. It is also a way of getting political support from EU. And yeah, it also,

06:32it not only has transformed a European issue into a domestic issue, but it is also a call to the

06:39Europeans to say, you are telling us that you are concerned about Russian influence. You come to

06:44visit us and give support. Well, the best way to give us support is to bring us closer to the European

06:50Union. You want, we want accession. And, you know, for Ukraine, accession, it's maybe desirable,

06:58but it's a country at war. So this is a non-starter right now. For Moldova, it's a small country,

07:04and you think that there's a chance there. But Moldova also has kind of a hybrid status,

07:09because it's got this breakaway republic, Transnistria, which hosts Russian bases.

07:14It's, the Russians have never let go of their foothold there. So, you know, we talk about trying

07:22to avoid direct confrontation with Moscow. Would EU accession be a direct confrontation with Russia?

07:28Well, not necessarily. First of all, you know, Transnistria, this region that has, in fact,

07:35voted many years ago, some 20 years ago, they had a referendum on attachment to Russia. They voted for

07:44it. Russia never followed suit. Didn't bother even to answer the call for why. Because the Russians

07:54prefer to have a means, a tool, a pressure tool on Moldova. Does it mean that Moldova couldn't

08:02join the European Union? I'm not sure, because Moldova right now is in a very poor economic state.

08:10The bond with Russia is not delivering that much. We see that the party, which may, I mean,

08:17they got majority in Transnistria, the pro-Russian party. Yeah, that's true. But it's only a small

08:27majority. And in fact, when you look at opinion posts, you discover the people there, they fear

08:34joining the European Union or going westward, because they think it may increase the chances

08:40of being dragged into war, a chance of going into conflict. So it's not necessarily that they are pro-Russian,

08:46Russophilia, admirers of Putin or anything like that. They simply want to stay away from

08:54what happened to Ukraine. Basically, the idea is, and this is what Russian propaganda has often said,

09:00the closer you get to the west, to the European Union, like what Ukraine did in 2014, the more you

09:09go that way, the bigger the chances of being in a confrontation with Russia. So you want to scare

09:14part of the population. And I think that, yeah, some of them are, you know, ready to follow,

09:21to listen to this argument, but they're clearly in a minority.

09:24With war on this continent, Jacques Rupnik, every time there's an election,

09:28either inside the European Union or on its borders, Brussels holds its breath. How much is it holding its

09:35breath over the next election, later this, in the coming month, the one in the Czech Republic for

09:41president? Well, it's a slightly different proposition because it's a member state. It's

09:46country that's already in the member state. It's a democracy that has been functioning for 30 years.

09:52Therefore, it's not, you know, it's a choice of government, not a choice of regime. In Moldova,

10:00it could have been a choice of regime. This is a different election. In the Czech Republic,

10:07even if it's a victory of Mr. Babiš and his party, he will steal the course in the direction of,

10:15let's say, nationalists, sovereignists, not very pro-European. Yeah. A mild version of Trumpism,

10:24I would say, would be the description, because he likes to wear the red hat of Donald Trump,

10:31Mr. Babiš. Not so far as Viktor Orban of Hungary. Yeah. So they would be drifting in that direction,

10:39but not in any way trying to exit the European Union or to challenge the constitutional foundations

10:47of the country. So it's not quite the same state. However, you're right to say that,

10:51you know, if you look at the political map, you have Hungary, you have Slovakia of Mr. Fico.

10:59Now, Czech Republic, it means central Europe is getting into, at least some countries are moving

11:08in a direction of, let's say, nationalist, euroskeptic parties, and that can only benefit

11:14Russian policy, foreign policy, because one of their joint policy tools is,

11:20is we shouldn't be supporting Ukraine militarily. We're welcoming economic aid or something like

11:27that, but we don't want military support, again, because we don't want to get engaged,

11:33involved in one way or another in this conflict. And that is clearly weakening the European position.

11:39It is Europe trying to get together some kind of joint support, you know, the coalition of the willing,

11:46that wants to support Ukraine, given that the America is not, is no longer delivering.

11:52And then you have part of the members of the EU who say, well, yeah, we are not part of that.

11:58So that, that clearly weakens the European hand. And that's not very good news for, for Ukraine either.

12:04Jacques-Raphnik, so many thanks for joining us here on France 24.

12:07Pleasure.

Following stunning victory, the real challenge now begins for Moldova’s pro-EU party: Governing

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