00:00The EU this Thursday said Moldova was facing an unprecedented campaign of disinformation from Russia
00:06ahead of key parliamentary elections with the aim of knocking the country off its pro-European course.
00:12Moldova's pro-EU Premier Maia Sandu, whose party is narrowly in the lead according to the polls,
00:18is warning that the Kremlin is looking to buy votes, stir unrest and wage an online disinformation campaign.
00:25Moldova is gearing up for a crucial parliamentary election,
00:32one that could veer its future towards Europe or Russia.
00:37Which would be better for us? We already know how it was with friendship with Russia, but what will happen in the EU?
00:44The choice is technically in the hands of the country's 2.4 million people,
00:50but many believe Moscow is trying to influence the outcome.
00:54So the main goal is to mobilize pro-Russian voters, to demotivate and demobilize pro-European voters,
01:02and to create confusion among the undecided voters.
01:06On Monday, police announced they had carried out 250 raids and arrested dozens of people,
01:12accused of planning Russian-backed disorder.
01:15President Maia Sandu then doubled down on the claim of interference.
01:19The Kremlin is pouring hundreds of millions of euros to buy hundreds of thousands of votes on the banks of the Nistri River and abroad.
01:31People are intoxicated daily with lies.
01:34Hundreds of individuals are paid to provoke disorder, violence and spread fear.
01:38The main opposition to her pro-European action Solidarity Party are the Russia-friendly Patriot Bloc,
01:48who say she is trying to scare and silence the people.
01:53Moldova, a former Soviet republic, applied for EU membership after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.
02:00Its geographical location has since heightened its importance to both the Bloc and Moscow.
02:07And on Wednesday, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had a warning about the region.
02:13Georgia is dependent on Russia.
02:17And for many, many years, Belarus has also been moving toward dependence on Russia.
02:22Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova too.
02:25Russia has repeatedly denied meddling in Moldova's election campaign.
02:32Let's get the analysis.
02:33I'm bringing in Clara Volentiru, who is director of the Black Sea Trust for the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
02:39Clara, thanks for being with us.
02:40Can I start by asking, how big a threat do you think this is, this Russian interference, to the democratic process in Moldova?
02:48Good evening, and thank you for bringing this subject to the attention of your viewers.
02:56I think the Russian interference in Moldova is important, not just for the Moldovan elections,
03:01but also for the threat that Russian interference poses across the entire European Union.
03:08We've seen the same tactics that have been played out in Moldovan past elections for the EU referendum and the presidential election last year,
03:17played out across different elections in Europe, Romania, Germany, France.
03:22So Moldova is really a test case for the type of interference, electoral interference,
03:27and not only that Russia is testing to distort and destabilize our democratic processes.
03:36Now, Clara, Russia denies doing this, but Russia always denies doing these kind of things.
03:43So in what way is Moscow meddling in Moldova's political process?
03:47What can people look out for?
03:49What can people expect to sort of see?
03:52There are overlapping factors.
03:55We can't say that everything that is attributable to, let's say, electoral distortions or misconduct is only Russia's doing.
04:05There are many things that can go wrong during election times, candidates that do not follow electoral rules.
04:14Clientelism has been around Europe and elsewhere for decades, so it's not just Russia's doing.
04:22But nevertheless, we have concrete, palpable evidence that Russia has mobilized networks of intermediaries, brokers,
04:29as we call them in the clientelistic literature, and their tactics have evolved.
04:33Last year, we saw approximately 50 million euros being distributed across informally,
04:41and the police has investigated the vote-buying schemes across Moldova for the presidential and EU referendum elections.
04:49And now the intelligence services and police in Moldova signal that they estimate the amount of vote-buying value from Russia
04:59to be around 100 million euros or more.
05:02So you can definitely see that the tools and techniques of electoral manipulation that have been used by misguided candidates in different settings across the globe
05:15are now instrumentalized to a new level by Russia in a foreign country.
05:20Of course, Transnistria, or Pridnestrovi, as some people call it, is very much the main sort of co-celebre of this story, isn't it?
05:30It's an area that Russia is claiming as its own in some way, shape or form.
05:34And, of course, it kind of gives that sort of echo to what we saw in Georgia in 2008,
05:40what we saw in Crimea and Donbass in Ukraine in 2014, and then, of course, the full invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
05:47It gives Russia, Vladimir Putin, an excuse to say, hang on, there are Russian people there that we need to somehow save.
05:53Yes, and Transnistria is more important for Russia in the war in Ukraine than in regards to the upcoming elections on Sunday.
06:07Transnistria can represent an additional front of attack for Ukraine, on Ukraine, from Russia.
06:16And I think this is one of the biggest threats that is posed not just to Moldova, but also to neighboring Ukraine.
06:24So, Transnistria is a matter that President Maya Sandu has been very carefully trying to manage.
06:30The European Union has also tried to stabilize the situation in the context of the energy crisis last year
06:38by providing additional support and energy resources from neighboring Romania.
06:43So, there are many overlapping factors that can destabilize the region in Transnistria,
06:49not just the Russian army that's still based in Transnistria, but also energy crisis, as I mentioned, economic issues,
06:58and, of course, the malign interferences in the informational space, disinformation and false narratives
07:05that create not just anxiety and fear, but also mobilize the people against the pro-European forces in the country.
07:17Clara, Maya Sandu, leading in the opinion polls, we are told, what are the chances are that she will hold that lead?
07:23We can look at the polls and the local information on the ground as a reason of optimism for the pro-European party of Maya Sandu pass.
07:38But at the same time, we know that the traditional anchor of Maya Sandu's party and her own presidency has been the diaspora.
07:48And what we've seen in the Romanian elections this year in the spring,
07:53and now we can expect the same to happen in the Moldovan elections on Sunday,
07:57is a much higher infiltration of disinformation and manipulation of voters in the diaspora as well,
08:05from Russian-backed messaging and networks such as Telegram, TikTok,
08:12so social media networks that mobilize a pro-Russian electorate or a Eurosceptic electorate,
08:19also in the diasporas of these countries.
08:22So this is a reason of concern.
08:24If in the EU referendum last year we saw the diaspora pivoting the vote strongly in favour of the referendum,
08:32now there has been a much more dense campaign across the diaspora networks from, again, Russian sources.
08:40So there is reason to have some caution and concern regarding the very firm pro-European vote
08:48that would have normally came from the diaspora in Moldova.
08:52We will see how it develops.
08:54Clara, thank you so much for your analysis, which really throws a lot of light on the situation in Moldova,
09:00which, of course, we're watching closely in the run-up to the vote this weekend.
09:03Clara Volentiru of the German Marshals Fund of the United States,
09:07thank you very much indeed for joining us.
09:08Pleasure having you here on France 24, as always.
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