Czechs vote as frontrunner Babis promises lavish spending, less Ukraine support

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00:00For more, we can speak to Pavlina Yenobova, research director at the Association for International Affairs.

00:06Hello to you, Pavlina.

00:07We're just watching that report about disinformation.

00:10Could you go into it a little bit more for us?

00:14Good afternoon from Prague.

00:17Yes, the disinformation, and especially the Russian narratives,

00:21have appeared in the ongoing campaign before the election that is taking place today and tomorrow.

00:27The topic of the narratives was mostly the low quality of life, allegedly, in Czechia,

00:35which would tell people to go and vote for the anti-System parties, the far-right SPD or the far-left Stachilo or ENAF.

00:46But, of course, a part of the disinformation sort of coverage was also focused on Ukraine and the war in Ukraine

00:55and the support of Ukraine and that Ukraine shouldn't be supported by Czechia.

01:02And also that the European Union, as well as NATO, are weak actors on the international stage.

01:10And the current governing center-right coalition, how have they tried to combat against that disinformation campaign?

01:16They have been, the current government led by the Spolu coalition and also with the participation of the mayors in independence,

01:30they have been very proactive in their foreign policy and also very active in their support for Ukraine.

01:37They have been criticized for paying not enough attention to domestic issues,

01:42which will probably cost them the governmental seats in this election.

01:48They have been trying to emphasize the importance of Czechia being anchored in the Western institutions.

01:55And they have been warning before Andrei Babiš and his potential coalition partners to take Czechia away from the global West

02:05and turning the Czech Republic towards Russia in the global East,

02:09which, if we want to be correct here, is not exactly the case.

02:16Of course, the far-right and the far-left, they are pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian.

02:20But if we look at ANO themselves, they are not specifically pro-Russian.

02:26Okay. And about Babiš, his chances, what do you think we'll see after this election plays out this weekend?

02:34Is he going to return to power?

02:38I think it's almost certain at this point that ANO will win the election

02:42and that Andrei Babiš will become the prime minister for the second time.

02:48What will be interesting to watch, however, will be what will the coalition look like?

02:54How will he manage to get enough support in the lower chamber of the Czech parliament

03:01to actually have a stable government?

03:05His natural coalition partners would be, for example, the smallest party currently

03:11that has a chance of entering the chamber, the motorists for themselves,

03:16who are a populist anti-green party, anti-EU party.

03:21But it's by no means certain that they actually will enter the chamber of deputies.

03:28Other partners would be the far-right SPD or the far-left statue.

03:34But there are certain personal animosities, for example, between the leader of the far-right

03:41and Andrei Babiš.

03:42So this is not certain either.

03:47When it comes to the chances of Andrei Babiš actually, or Andrei Babiš's government

03:51actually being supported by some of the mainstream parties,

03:54I think that's also a possibility, even though not right away,

03:58but further in the negotiations.

04:01But in that case, the potential junior coalition partner would probably condition

04:08their entering to the government by replacing Andrei Babiš in the prime minister's seat

04:13by someone else from ANO, probably Karel Havlicek, who is currently the vice chair.

04:18Right.

04:18And how do you think a Babiš victory would reverberate across Europe?

04:24Andrei Babiš has been known for being a close ally

04:28to Viktor Orbán.

04:30Andrei Babiš has also been vocal about wanting to improve the relations

04:35between Czechia and Slovakia, which have gone sour in the past few years.

04:40So I guess the fear is, in the European Union and in Europe,

04:45that Babiš will join this club of troublemakers in the European Union.

04:50And I think, yes, Andrei Babiš definitely will try to renew the Visegrad cooperation,

04:56even though the role of Poland is currently unclear.

05:01But I also think that Andrei Babiš wouldn't have an interest in, for example,

05:07supporting Viktor Orbán in blocking the sanctions against Russia.

05:12Something like that, I think, cannot be expected from Andrei Babiš.

05:16All right, Pavlina.

05:17Thank you so much for your time.

05:18Pavlina Janubova joining us from Prague.

05:20Thank you so much.

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