9.17 BMTN Full Update

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00:00After yesterday's hot day, it remains warm and muggy for a couple more days,

00:03but the pattern becomes more unsettled.

00:05We have several chances of rainfall due to a slow-moving system.

00:18A lot of 90-degree readings yesterday across the southern half of the state,

00:22most of the metro as well,

00:24most places reaching low 90s all across the southern part of the state yesterday afternoon,

00:29which is not unheard of, of course, in September,

00:32but it is becoming more frequent in modern times.

00:3592 at MSP officially.

00:37You can see a whole lot of low 90s out there.

00:39And that is pretty warm.

00:41Our warmest reading since July.

00:43We hit 90 once in August, but just an even 90.

00:46This is the 11th latest 92-degree reading on record, 152 years of records,

00:51and we are two and a half times more likely to hit 90 degrees in September now

00:56compared to 50 years ago.

00:57And in fact, in a decade and a half, we've hit 90 degrees in September

01:01as many times as it used to take 30 years to do.

01:05So we've got this anomalous ridge of warmth that's just really kind of taking over the continent,

01:09and that's pushing all the cool air off far away,

01:13and that's just really allowing that heat to seep into very far north

01:17compared to where it would be normally this time of year.

01:19Still in the mid-80s today, still muggy, and similar tomorrow.

01:23It will still be warm and muggy.

01:25Slowly but surely, cooler air is going to work into this system.

01:27We've got a whole mess of showers and clouds spinning.

01:29This is an upper-level low.

01:31It's just a chunk of cool air aloft.

01:32It is going to eventually cool things off as it moves closer and through the state,

01:37but ahead of it, we're still on the warm side.

01:39But it's going to take, really, several days to get out of here.

01:42You can see this spin here.

01:43This is vorticity, and we look at that because that tells us where air is rising

01:47because as air rises, air has to fill it in.

01:49It starts to rotate due to Earth's rotation, et cetera, et cetera.

01:53That's a whole other meteorology lesson.

01:55But we are going to start to see more showers and thunderstorms by the evening into the overnight,

01:58and there's just going to be kind of spokes of moisture pinwheeling around that upper-level low occasionally.

02:03So that means it's not going to rain all day, any one day here,

02:06but we are going to have periods of occasional showers and thunderstorms moving through.

02:10Here's Friday.

02:10Friday looks like it could be wet, midday at least.

02:13This is the European model now.

02:15And then as we head into Saturday, Sunday, Monday,

02:17gradually there will be fewer and fewer showers, more widely scattered

02:21until they become pretty isolated, I think, by Sunday and Monday.

02:25But until that upper-level low is out of here,

02:27that's going to keep several days of instability around.

02:30And as we've been talking about, that rainfall will add up over the course of several days.

02:33Not worried about flooding concerns because this is going to be over four or five days,

02:37but one to two inches of rain with some locally higher amounts

02:40are just certainly possible as it wraps up.

02:43And as I mentioned, still warm tomorrow, still near 80 in southern Minnesota.

02:46You can start to see those cooler readings in the 60s and 70s to the north.

02:49Friday, Saturday look to be the coolest days.

02:51And by cool, we're talking mid-70s.

02:5460s to the north.

02:55These are actually pretty close to, but still above normal slightly.

02:58These are the temperature anomalies for Saturday.

03:00Still two to five degrees above average.

03:03So while we're going to cool down, it won't be as cool as what we had a couple weeks ago.

03:07And the rest of the month, above normal temperatures.

03:09Each one of these days is above normal.

03:12And so that's why September is going to finish as yet another warmer-than-normal month.

03:16We've only had one September in a decade that has been cooler than normal.

03:20It is one of our fastest warming months in Minnesota.

03:2484 degrees today.

03:26Thunderstorms developing as we head into the late afternoon evening hours, potentially.

03:29Those will be scattered tomorrow, scattered showers and storms, especially early and then

03:33again late in the day.

03:34Friday looks like we'll see maybe more numerous showers, potentially here, especially in the

03:39middle of the day.

03:39And then as we talked about heading into the weekend early next week, that activity starts

03:43to sputter out, become more widely spread here.

03:47But those temperatures are still warm.

03:48In fact, Sunday, Monday back in the upper 70s, that's good five degrees above average.

03:52And by Tuesday, the average high is in the 60s, and we're still going to be in the 70s

03:57around here.

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