Heat holds this week, but showers loom by the weekend

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00:00Well, the July-like weather continues this week as we transition from September to October.

00:05It also remains dry, but there are some changes afoot by the weekend,

00:08a more unsettled pattern, and finally some cooler weather.

00:21So we still have this upper-level ridge, this heat dome essentially is all that this is,

00:25that's been kind of parked generally over the central U.S. for the last couple of weeks.

00:30And this has kept our temperatures well above normal,

00:32dipping the jet stream out in the Pacific and the Northeast

00:35and keeping things really just warm and high and dry here across the central U.S.

00:40All the real cool stuff staying bottled up well to the north.

00:43And that means for the last 15 days, look at the average temperature anomalies,

00:47that departure from normal.

00:48There's been a bullseye from Minnesota right up into the Arctic in northern Canada

00:52of well above normal temperatures.

00:54And that upper-level ridge, it's an area of upper-level high pressure,

00:58just kind of compresses the air, keeps things dry too.

01:00So rainfall this week is going to be minuscule, if anything at all.

01:05It might have a sprinkler or two tomorrow, but a very small chance of that.

01:09That cooler high pressure of the weekend, which was still above normal,

01:12but some drier air at least, has shifted to the east.

01:14We're back into a southerly flow with a developing area of low pressure to our west.

01:18So temperatures will be much warmer today.

01:20Look at these highs.

01:21This is what you'd expect in the middle of July, near 90 in western Minnesota,

01:26mid-80s here in the Twin Cities, maybe even upper 80s.

01:28Tomorrow will be a touch cooler.

01:30We do have a weak frontal boundary kind of stalling out across the state,

01:33so the temperatures will be just a few degrees cooler.

01:35But by the end of the week, we're going to see another boost upward,

01:38even a shot at 90, I think, in the Twin Cities,

01:41almost certainly again out on the Buffalo Ridge, southwestern Minnesota.

01:44Now we have this little spoke of energy coming up tomorrow.

01:47Again, that's what might touch off a sprinkle, but air will still be pretty dry.

01:51Not a lot of moisture to work with.

01:52But the bigger pattern change is this overall trough in the west digging in,

01:57and that's going to finally push that heat to the east.

01:59But overnight, Friday night, next chance of maybe some showers finally across the state.

02:04And then again, late Sunday into Monday.

02:06This could be our first measurable rainfall in the Twin Cities in what would be two weeks.

02:10We haven't seen anything since last weekend,

02:12so I actually could use a little moisture by the weekend.

02:14It doesn't look like a ton of rainfall.

02:16Models favoring northern Minnesota for anything more significant.

02:19And then those rainfall amounts drop off a little as we go further south.

02:23But 86 today, pretty incredible.

02:25Again, 90 out around Benson, Granite Falls, some of those places.

02:30And then tomorrow, again, a couple degrees cooler, low 80s.

02:33Last day of September, we are closing out a very warm month.

02:36It's going to be in the top 10 warmest Septembers.

02:38Last year was the number one spot, if you're keeping track.

02:41And then look at these first days of October, a string of 80s.

02:44It's incredible.

02:4583 Wednesday, 86 Thursday, Friday, upper 80s.

02:49Again, a shot at 90, even in the Twin Cities.

02:51Still near 80 on Saturday, but more unsettled as we head into the weekend.

02:55We'll start to see those temperatures drop a little bit by Sunday.

02:58And then indications that next week, maybe finally some more seasonable temperatures in the 60s,

03:05but still probably a little bit above normal.

03:22Take care.

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