September is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter explains the increasing concern around the growing hurricane risk in the Gulf of America in mid- to late September.

Transcript

00:00Take you to the Turks and Caicos because we've got more to talk about in the tropics now, Bernie.

00:04This looks absolutely beautiful here. Let's soak it in.

00:09All right, with that, not as beautiful as the Turks and Caicos, but dashingly handsome anyway.

00:16I want to bring in our chief meteorologist, Jonathan Porter.

00:19You know, John, all kidding aside, when you look at the Atlantic Basin, yes, it's been relatively quiet given the time of year,

00:27but there's a lot of warning signals right now with those ocean water temperatures.

00:32And I also think it's stunning to see how Aaron has impacted the tropical Atlantic.

00:40These are the ocean water temperature anomalies.

00:43Exactly. You can see where Aaron recurved here.

00:45Those blue areas are areas of cooler water.

00:49And in fact, where did that come from? That came from below the surface.

00:53All the winds associated with the storm stirred up the water.

00:56Some of that cooler air comes up to the ocean surface, cooler water up to the ocean surface.

01:01And so you can see the path of Aaron there resulting in that upwelling.

01:05That will mix out and eventually warm back up in those areas.

01:09But there's a lot of orange and yellow from the main development region of the tropical Atlantic

01:15all the way back through the Caribbean and the Gulf, Bernie.

01:18And that means that water temperatures are anywhere from 3 to, in some cases, 6 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term historic average.

01:27That's warm water. That could be rocket fuel for a developing hurricane.

01:31Yeah, it's not a hyperbole, but this graphic is a little frightening to me.

01:36Because it looks at the water temperatures in the Gulf and compares it to the historical average.

01:42That red line is this year, and it looks as though it's right on par with what we had last year.

01:49That's the orange.

01:51And that ice attack, that black line, that's the historical average.

01:55Very warm water.

01:56Yeah, notice that's the historical average here, and the red line is 2025.

02:02So we're way up at the top end.

02:04We've been trailing 2024 for a bit, but now it's actually, in the last day or two,

02:11ticked ahead of 2024, ocean temperatures averaged across the entire Gulf,

02:17probably because the Gulf has been untouched.

02:20There hasn't been any tropical storms or hurricanes in there this year as compared to last year.

02:24All right, it's been quiet, but I'll tell you what,

02:25we're watching this tropical wave.

02:27It's the one on the far right.

02:29It's around 35 degrees west.

02:30We've been highlighting that all week.

02:34Listen, one way out of this system not developing, it's a tropical wave.

02:40You know, the dry air is not moving away, John.

02:43It looks like it's going to try to come into it, and that should slow development for a time.

02:49It should.

02:50See, the dry air is located in these oranges and yellows.

02:53And, Bernie, what you and I were just talking about a minute ago is look how the oranges and yellows are actually moving toward the storm.

02:59So that's going to try to erode the northern edge of it.

03:01It's going to have to deal with that dry air as it moves to the west.

03:05That tells us that it's probably a slower development on this one.

03:09But this is the future to watch here.

03:10And then it gets, as we get into that area, low wind shear.

03:16And how many times, you know, John, I looked high up in the atmosphere.

03:20There's a big high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere that it's going under as we head toward this weekend.

03:26That spells trouble.

03:27Again, we've always had this, John, a high risk.

03:31But here at AccuWeather, we always go a step ahead.

03:34We need to let people know in the islands this is one they have to keep an eye on.

03:38John, let's go over the timeline.

03:40The storm will be organizing this weekend into a tropical storm.

03:43We expect it can be likely a hurricane east of the islands early next week.

03:49In the middle of the week next week, there can be impacts to the islands.

03:52And then after that, a track further to the west could mean more problems to the U.S.

03:56or it could recurve out to sea.

03:58All right.

03:58If you live in the Lesser Antilles, pay attention.

04:02This could be a hurricane.

04:04It likely will be a hurricane as it approaches the middle part of the week.

04:08Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

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