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00:00While you're waiting to go to sleep tonight, like it's Christmas Eve and waking up tomorrow
00:04morning on a Thursday, understand the NFL is back in your life for real. We got some
00:08afternoon Major League Baseball on a Wednesday hump day. The perfect tonic to say, I don't
00:13know how I'm going to make it to tomorrow morning. You got a ton of baseball today and
00:16it starts in the nation's capital at 105. 901, 902 on the rotation. That's the Miami
00:22Marlins and the Washington Nationals. Uri Perez is going to be on the mound against
00:25Mitchell Parker. Both of these pitchers you could probably hit. Why is that? You're going
00:29to see a total that's flashing at nines across the board and a slight favorite
00:33here for the Marlins on the road, anywhere between minus 136 to minus 130, depending
00:37on where you're shopping at. If I look at those statistics today and say, all right,
00:40Mitchell Parker, what have you done the last 45 days? I don't know, an eight ERA. Uri
00:45Perez, how about you? Roughly a five ERA. The bats should come out smoking today in
00:50the nation's capital, Joe. Yeah, but you know, I trust Uri Perez to figure it out and
00:58not Mitchell Parker here. I think that, yes, his past five starts have not been good at
01:05all. But again, that was what against the Mets? The Nats are not the Mets. They are not going
01:12to hit the ball quite like the New York Mets here. So I think Miami has a advantage early
01:20though. So I'd be looking at this price maybe to say, you know what? Miami probably gets the
01:25Parker before the Nats are going to get the Uri Perez. I think Perez bounces back here.
01:31I'd look for Miami in the first five. Ah, let's see what happens between those. I do think we get
01:36some runs. Let's take a look at some weather temperatures there in the nation's capital
01:39today. As I focus in 79 degrees and clear, no precipitation, about 82 degrees when the game
01:45ends here and a light, light wind blowing out. So good hitting conditions here on an afternoon game.
01:50Let's keep it in the one o'clock hour and head to Detroit. We're looking at another victory
01:53for the New York Mets over the Tigers here. Clay Holmes will take the mound. And Joe says his
01:58time's running out on that arm strength here late in the season, going up against Casey Mize.
02:02This line, roughly a pick them across the board in a total that's listed anywhere between eight
02:06and a half and nines, depending on where you're shopping. Holmes and Mize, do we get more runs
02:11today? We've been seeing some runs in Detroit lately. Well, I mean, talk about the tale of two
02:17halves, right? Mize, prior to, I think, the all-star break was kind of lights out for them.
02:24The problem is, after that all-star break, he has not been good. He just got roughed up by the
02:29athletics, I think, last week here. Detroit lost 7-0 in that game. The way the Mets are hitting,
02:38if you are not confident and you've got a pitcher that may be still trying to figure some things
02:43out, 46 hits and 11 walks in 35 innings is what he has done here. Not good here. But I don't trust
02:53the Mets and Holmes either. Give me the over, Donnie. I will take balls and runs being flying
02:59out of that ballpark here today. Interesting weather, too. About 77 degrees. You like to see
03:04that no right in the forecast. Fantastic. More of a crosswind, like 13 to 14 miles an hour. I wonder
03:08if that's going to get in play for some of those balls out to right field or blowing some of those
03:13balls foul. That would have actually been an out around the foul line down the left field line.
03:17We'll see if that plays into it here. Let's get out to Texas, Arizona, where Texas is going to take
03:22on the Diamondbacks. Lighter versus Gallon. How about a favorite here for the Arizona Diamondbacks
03:27at a minus 136 price to minus 128, depending on where you're shopping at. And the total,
03:31let's listen at nine across the board. Can Texas continue to make a run here in the month of
03:36September and put some pressure on the Mariners and the Astros who aren't playing great baseball, Joe?
03:42No, they're not, but they are feisty at home, right? And I did like them yesterday. And unfortunately
03:49for Texas, they were 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position, hit into not one, not two, but three
03:56double plays in that game. And that was enough for Arizona to be able to get it done. Leiter has
04:03been, you know, he's been good here, but he has been better at home in Arlington than he has been
04:09on the road, which Zach Gallon shows up. Your guess is as good as mine here, but if it ain't broke,
04:15don't fix it. I still think runs are coming here. I might look at the over in Arizona.
04:20Yeah, it's been tough this year to see what Zach Gallon's getting here. Also, what's tough is the
04:24San Diego Padres better get a move on here. If you want to catch the Dodgers, Povich, the lefty
04:28versus nasty Nestor Cortez, another lefty for the Padres here. This total sits at eight to eight and a
04:33half, depending where you're shopping at and a heavy favorite for San Diego. Do we trust San Diego
04:39around that minus 165 price point, Joe? I don't know how you can try. I don't know how they lost the
04:44first two games in a series is beyond me. So now they are going to need nasty Nestor to have a
04:50quality start here. I believe he's only lasted, what, three innings against Minnesota last time
04:57out. That's not going to cut it. This bullpen's getting a little tax right now for the Padres.
05:02Now we'll see what happens. They need a victory because after the break, we're going to take a
05:06look at a team here in the Pittsburgh Pirates that did some damage yesterday at the plate against the
05:10Dodgers. You know who's on the mound today for those Los Angeles Dodgers? It's one.
05:15Shohei Ohtani at the plate on the mound. Can he rescue the Dodgers? Come back and find out.
05:20We'll handicap that game and much more next. Shohei Ohtani's on the mound and the analytics crowd
05:26absolutely giving a standing ovation today in Pittsburgh. It's Ohtani going up against Ashcraft,
05:31903-904 in the rotation, a 640 start, a heavy favorite for the Dodgers, anywhere between minus
05:36172s to minus 180s, depending on where you're shopping at. In a total, that's listed at eight runs.
05:42The reason I say the analytics crowd loves Ohtani, look at his last 45 days. His ERA is a 5.40.
05:47That's terrible, but his Ks per nine, 13.11. His XFIP number, microscopic, 2.37. Sierra,
05:57best on the card today, 2.64. Is Ohtani enough to overpower that Pirates lineup today and give them
06:04an easy victory for the Dodgers? Well, nothing seems to be easy for the Dodgers against the
06:09Pirates here for some strange reason. But yeah, I mean, Ohtani on the mound coming off a pretty darn
06:16good spot. They're also looking to extend him a little bit, right? So I think he went at least
06:23five innings, got the wind his last time out. Ashcraft for the Pirates, by the way, a bullpen
06:30guy turned into a starter. He's got five starts under his belt, and he actually hasn't been that
06:36bad. The numbers are actually pretty decent here. But when it's all said and done, the fact that the
06:42Dodgers aren't a $2 or more favorite here, I'm going to lean towards them early in this one,
06:48look to maybe lay a half a run in the first five and think that they'll get some run support for
06:53Ohtani and play from in front in this game. By the way, Ashcraft, I have him listed here third
06:59on the analytics card today with all these pitchers today, Joe. 3.27 XFIP, 3.49 Sierra, maybe an under
07:05could be in tail, at least over the first five innings. We'll find out because we always like
07:08to point out the Dodgers' bullpen is struggling. It's not supposed to. The Pirates don't have a really
07:12good bullpen either at this point. So watch out and get what you wish for after that fifth inning
07:16sort of goes up in the air. Toronto and Cincinnati. Toronto desperately needing a win to try to fight
07:21off the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. Biebs will be on the mound. That's Shane Bieber
07:25going up against Zach Littell. A total that opened up at nine, Joe, that's dropped to eight and a half.
07:29But a favorite for Toronto in that 150 range overnight, we're now seeing 160s in the marketplace
07:34right now as a favorite towards Toronto. Does Toronto get back to their winning ways today with
07:39the Biebs on the mound? Well, I kind of understand the move to the under. Like the Reds' bullpen,
07:46is absolutely smoked right now. They weren't very good to begin with, but now they're really taxed
07:53given the fact that they all of a sudden with Liddell being scratched last minute, then they had
07:58bullpen arm after bullpen arm having to come in in that game. And it was a close game. So it wasn't
08:04like they could just throw a shortstop out there and eat up some innings. So I'm very worried about the
08:10Reds' bullpen. They're going to need big innings out of Littell here. And I don't think they
08:16get it. I think the over is the way to go here. I'm expecting more runs. Bieber gave up a couple
08:22home runs last time out here. It is the great American small park after all. I think an over
08:28is in pretty good shape. I think another great American small park resides in Tampa. You saw
08:34yesterday, the handicap on that game for me was, were they playing? Okay, just take the over. Yeah,
08:3812 runs were scored. By the way, 10 of those for the Tampa Bay Rays. Cal Raleigh did hit a home run,
08:42but certainly in a losing effort. George Kirby's on the mound. Pretty good pitcher there. Hauser,
08:46decent pitcher. You're going to throw another total up there at eight and a half and a favorite here
08:50for Seattle. I'm just going to look at this game again and say, look, I understand Kirby can strike
08:54guys out. Hauser might have a good pitching performance. That's not the building for taking
08:58unders. I don't care how good that pitching matchup is. Just give me more runs in this game.
09:02But I do think Seattle bounces back at the plate and can get the Hauser tonight.
09:05Well, Hauser has not been the same guy since he was traded over, right? From the white. So he was
09:12very good there. And then he came over to town. It's like, no, it is not been good at all here. So
09:18yeah, I'm with you. I like Seattle to bounce back, but Kirby hasn't exactly been fantastic either,
09:27though, since he came off the IL for Seattle. I know they're a little disappointed in what he's
09:32giving them. All in all, though, if it ain't broke, Johnny, I don't trust either guy. I think
09:37we're going up and over in this spot here. Let's see what we get people. How about in Milwaukee?
09:43They took a day off. Guys got to hang out, eat some brats over the weekend and relax yesterday
09:47without a game, even though they did play a game previously on Labor Day Monday. Aaron Nola is going
09:52to go on the mound against Jose Quintana. Look at this line, Joe. Eight and a half is the total
09:56overnight. It's risen to nine. I actually agree with that. You look at the side itself,
10:00slight favorite towards the Milwaukee Brewers, which is crazy. Wait a second. Aaron Nola's on
10:04the mound. The Phillies are healthy. How can they be underdogs? Nola just hasn't been that good as
10:08of late at this point, and neither has Jose Quintana. So I'm looking at this saying, I do
10:12think we probably get nine runs in this, even though some of these are a little bit tough,
10:16Joe. When you give both teams a day off, that means the bullpens will be rested and ready and
10:21everybody is on deck. So if those pitchers do struggle or you like to say, you know what?
10:25Hey, Aaron Nola, good five innings, Quintana, good five innings. We'll handle it from here.
10:28That's the tough part. But if I'm just looking at the first five innings, Joe,
10:32we should get runs between these two pitchers. Yeah. And both bullpens got pretty used in that
10:38Monday game, right? I mean, I think they both use six relievers a piece. So that yes, the day off,
10:44which is strange, uh, was pretty good, but you mentioned it. Nola, uh, who missed what three
10:49months? I think what a sprained ankle. This'll be his fourth start off the IL. He is two and all,
10:56but he's given up 13 runs, 12 earned in 14 and a third. And you mentioned it. We knew regression
11:02was coming for Quintana. He only went what three and two thirds, uh, against Arizona, gave up six
11:08runs. I give me the over. I agree with the move to the over. I'd even go, uh, Philly's team total
11:17up and over in this one. How about guy Cade Horton last 45 days, Joe 0.86 ERA. Yes. You heard that
11:24correctly going up against Bryce elder. That is the Atlanta Braves taking on the Chicago Cubs,
11:28905, 906 on the rotation, a seven 40 start cool, rainy, possibly conditions today in the windy city
11:34around 60 degrees. That's why I see that total across the board that it's down from eight and a
11:38half at the opening number down to eight here, but a favorite for the Cubs, which opened up overnight
11:42minus one seventies, give or take, you now see that marker up there to one 52, anywhere between
11:47minus one 50 to minus one 58 in the marketplace right now. Elder versus Horton, who I don't know.
11:53I got to give up runs, Joe. No, I don't know. Elder is absolute. I'm sorry. Guy has burned me
12:00and back-to-back starts here looking like Cy Young here shutting down the Philadelphia Phillies last
12:07Friday, giving up three hits over seven innings. I mean, you got to be kidding me. No, I am not buying
12:14it. I like Cade Horton. I like the Cubs the way they're swinging the bat. Now I will lay a half a
12:19run in the first five. And I absolutely believe this Cubs hitters will get to elder and put them
12:26back where he belongs, which is somewhere in the parking lot. More of a crosswind in Chicago,
12:32which is good. So as long as the wind isn't blowing in, it's not blowing out, but it's not
12:36really harming it there. We'll see if we get some extra runs, but again, cooler conditions in the
12:39Windy City tonight, around 60 degrees during that game. The Athletics and St. Louis still teed up
12:44again. Lower scoring game yesterday. Michael has got me, but again, the Athletics going one for nine
12:48with runners in scoring position. That's never going to help you out at this point. Springs on
12:52the mound, the lefty versus Libertor. Libertor is another bad pitcher. Probably going to look to
12:55fade him as well. This total is an eight and a half, but roughly a pick them across the board.
13:00Maybe you get a bounce back in runs from both teams as you barely saw any offense overall
13:04yesterday, Joe. No, you did then. You're right. I mean, we knew Severino coming off the
13:09IL. He has been, even before he was on the IL, he was lights out on the road. He was certainly
13:15good enough last night to win, but they just couldn't get any runs going. Listen, I don't
13:20like Libertor because he's a contact pitcher and this, this Athletics team will make you pay here.
13:27I like, I like the Athletics to take the, the final game of the series here.
13:32Yeah. You look at the XFIP on Libertor last 45 days, five ridiculously bad. And then the Sierra
13:38number is a 5.09, even worse. He's a pitcher, right? If you're pitching the contact, not
13:43striking guys out, eventually it's going to catch up to you. You just need in, you need innings and
13:46you need opportunities. Like if you tell me before the game, like, Hey, you're going to have 10 at
13:50bats with runners in scoring position. I'll take that every time. Just don't go one for 10, go two
13:53for 10, three of 10. And that certainly is probably going to come to a victory. Maybe it does for the
13:57Athletics and St. Louis, but a really good major league baseball card today. As we previewed a few games
14:02in the afternoon, there's actually four games that will start at four o'clock or before. And then you have
14:06that night slate here as we get ready for NFL action. It's going to take place tomorrow between
14:10the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Yankees. Feeling good about this card today, Joe. How
14:15about this? Do we sweep a little major league baseball again today? What do you say?
14:19Oh, I think it's coming. We love our little afternoon junkets here in major league baseball.
14:25Pretty good slate tonight as well. But I want to talk some Yankees baseball with George here because
14:29the Yankees are an interesting position. First place for the majority of the season, slipping back.
14:33Oh no, we're going to make the playoffs. Now starting to charge back up with the Boston
14:37Red Sox to try to take down the Toronto Blue Jays. Yesterday's game, he got seven runs after
14:41Frambois Valdez sort of had an implosion with his catcher, which was interesting in the least,
14:45but they're going to take on the Astros again tonight. George, tell me about the Yanks.
14:49Is there a chance that they can get back in the race? I don't mean making the playoffs. They'll do
14:53that for me, but getting back in the race where they can actually win the AL East.
14:57I think there's a chance of that. Sure. We're going to find out a lot over the next two weeks,
15:00right? We sort of pooh-poohed last week. Oh, you beat the Nationals. Oh, you beat the Chicago
15:05White Sox. You took six out of seven. We all knew their next 12 games, now 11 games, were against
15:10the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers, Red Sox. Four playoff teams, and you had a combined record of
15:17seven and 19 against those four teams. All right. Yeah. You blew out Valdez last night, and that was
15:21very interesting, by the way. The cross-off with the catcher there after what happened. I think you
15:26hit him on purpose, by the way. I do think you did it on purpose, but I like thinking like that.
15:29But that was great. But the Yankees generally do beat up Valdez somewhat there. They've had
15:33good success against them in the past, but they did lose to him on old-timers day here. But
15:37what's going to happen over the next 11 days, right? All right. So, I think we'll find out.
15:41If they go, if they go four and seven next 11, well, we know, listen, they're just not going
15:46to do it. They can beat bad teams, can't beat good teams, the definition of an average team.
15:51If they go the opposite here, they go eight and four, maybe they are a threat here. Maybe they
15:56are a threat. If they can't catch the Blue Jays, they're on a collision course with the
15:59Boston Red Sox for a three-game series, right? And that means you've got Crochet, right?
16:03You're going to face him game one. That's not going to be easy for the Yankees, who I think
16:06have scored one run in two starts against them this year. So, they're going to have
16:09some issues there. But is there a chance? Yeah. Because the Blue Jays, that bullpen's
16:14not very good, right? They have holes there. It's got some issues there. There's no great
16:18team in the American League. Yankees have holes. Jays have holes. Red Sox have holes.
16:21Every team can be beat. It just might come down to who's hot at that time.
16:25Yeah. You're right about that. Because the stuff that we look at and try to measure out
16:30and see exactly what happens is, Major League Baseball is finicky. How hot are you going
16:34to be down the stretch in September? That carries into October. If you ask me right now,
16:37hey, would you rather be a wild card but extremely hot over the final three weeks or win a division
16:41and cool off and say, let's rest our guys to the playoffs? It's taking the hot teams in.
16:44But we're baseball guys, George. We love this. Everybody's going to turn the page from college
16:49football to pro football. Tell us a little about September betting and how you handle it here
16:53quickly. I think with both, you're very careful here. We don't know what we don't know in NFL
16:58yet, right? We don't know who's going to be ahead of who. So week one is cautious for the NFL for me.
17:02And same thing with baseball. You know, you've got teams that are packing it up. They're done.
17:05They don't care anymore. So you're very cautious in September with the NFL, at least the first
17:10couple of weeks. Exactly. George always has a good pulse there on the Yankees and certainly the
17:15Dallas Cowboys. You'll tee it up tomorrow night in Philadelphia against the Philadelphia Eagles.
17:18You can catch George on fantasy sports today, 3 p.m. Friday, along with Craig Nitz. Thanks for
17:23joining us and waking up early, George. We'll shut it down next on the Early Live.
17:31Bring it home, Joe. Bring the people home with a little more dollars in their back pocket. Where
17:35are we going today? All right. So yesterday we went on the road and took the Giants on the run line
17:43there. We laid a run and a half and that turned out to be pretty good. Why? Because, well, Colorado's
17:49not very good and Colorado pitching is not very good. And I can apply that same logic to the Toronto
17:56Blue Jays and the Cincinnati Reds again here today when the Reds unexpectedly had to scratch Lodolo late,
18:05had to go to the bullpen there, which had already been taxed, and go through that again yesterday.
18:12Now they got Zach Littell on the mound. And let's face it, if you're expecting six, seven innings out
18:17of him, that's not going to happen. Toronto knows him very well from his time in Tampa, and they've had
18:23no problem beating him up there. Bieber gave up a couple of home runs last time out. I do like the
18:29over in this game, but quite honestly, I like the Blue Jays on the run line at even money. I think is a
18:37good bet because I think the Jays put away the Reds here, get to that bullpen, score a lot of
18:42runs, and win by more than one run here. Yeah, we always like the run line on the road there. Score
18:49as many as you want in the top of the ninth inning, no matter what that score is. There's no worse
18:52feeling, Joe, right? Like I have a run line. It's a tie game. You have the home team in the bottom of
18:56the ninth, three to three with bases loaded and nobody out. Oh, walk. Congratulations. Everybody runs
19:01off the field and you're steaming hot in there because you know there's probably two to three
19:05runs waiting in that inning if you just had to keep moving on here and you were in the top of
19:09the ninth inning. But for me, I'll keep it simple. Going up to Colorado. Robbie Ray's a bad pitcher.
19:14The worst analytical pitcher on my card today going up against Herman Marquez. Both of these teams
19:18should hit. Both should approach five runs, which puts you right in the ballpark for an over at 11.
19:23And also, you know the umpire is going to be quick on the draw. You throw a pitch inside here,
19:28you're getting tossed out of the game. Let's get into those bullpens tonight and have a little
19:31mid-80s temperatures for this one. Light wind blowing out. Runs at Coors. Sign me up tonight
19:38and sign myself and also Joe up for a 2-0 night once again as we get ready for NFL action tomorrow.
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