- 5 months ago
Accuweather’s lead hurricane forecaster, Alex DaSilva, joined Forbes senior editor Maggie McGrath to talk about Hurricane Erin’s path and expected effects.
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00:00Hi, everyone. I'm Maggie McGrath, senior editor at Forbes. Hurricane Aaron is going to bring
00:09damaging waves to the East Coast. Where is it headed and how much damage will there be?
00:15Joining us to answer these questions is Alex Da Silva. He is AccuWeather's lead hurricane
00:20forecaster. Alex, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you for having me.
00:24So let's start with the state of the hurricane right now. It had been a category three storm.
00:29It is now a category two storm. Where is it? What's it doing? Yeah, right now the storm is
00:35located northeast of the Bahamas here. You can see it on the satellite presentation. Just such a
00:39large storm right now. It's undergone two eyewall replacement cycles during its lifetime. And so
00:45that's really helped to expand that wind field out. And so you can see some of the clouds are
00:50already starting to reach the Carolinas, even though the center of the storm is down in this
00:54area here. So quite the expansive storm. And this is why we're going to be so concerned
00:59about big time waves and big time rip currents up the entirety of the East Coast.
01:05Big time waves and rip currents. But based on where that storm is headed, or at least where it
01:11looks like it's headed in that satellite, it looks like it's headed straight for the East Coast. Will
01:16it make landfall? Yeah, we're expecting it to stay off the coast by about 200 miles or so. So let me pull
01:22up our projected eyepath here. So here's the eyepath here. We're expecting the storm to get within
01:27about 200 miles or so of the outer banks of North Carolina, give or take maybe about 25 miles. It
01:33could come within a little bit of 200 miles or could come a little bit without on the other side
01:38of 200 miles. But generally around 200 miles, we don't expect a direct landfall. And then we expect
01:43a hard right hand turn for the storm sometime during the day tomorrow. That'll push it out to
01:48sea. And the reason why we're seeing this push out to sea, it's going to really spare, I think,
01:52the Northeast Coast from a direct hit is because we're seeing a dip in the jet stream coming into
01:56the Northeast. So that's really going to push the storm out to sea. And that's why we don't
02:00anticipate a landfall. And we expect the core of the storm to remain well out to sea.
02:06So the core of the storm will remain out to sea. But you mentioned damaging riptides. So let's talk
02:12about the effect to people living on the coast, because some people might hear, oh, it's turning away
02:18from the coast. I'm fine. What will actually happen to everyone? Let's start maybe south of
02:24Washington, D.C. and talk about the Carolinas. How how high will the waves get? What what will
02:30those currents look like? Yeah, well, first, I'll start off with the whole East Coast. The entirety of
02:35the East Coast needs to be on guard for big time waves and big time rip currents. Whether you live in
02:39South Florida or all the way up in eastern Canada, you need to be on the lookout for very dangerous
02:45rip currents. There's already been over 100 water rescues in portions of the Carolinas already for
02:50people going out into those into the waves and experiencing those rip currents. So we certainly
02:55urge people to stay out of the water, especially if those lifeguards are telling you that it's too
03:00dangerous to swim. But the big time waves, those are really going to be concentrated, I think, a little
03:04further north in the Carolinas. This is where the storm will make its closest pass during the day
03:09tomorrow. During the day Thursday is when the storm will make its closest pass. Look at the size of
03:14these waves, 15 to 20 feet in parts of the outer banks of North Carolina. Hatteras itself, 12 to 17
03:20feet. But even down to Wrightsville Beach, we can be looking at five to 10 foot waves coming on shore
03:26here. So very, very impressive. And that's going to cause some big time beach erosion. We're already
03:31seeing it today and it's just going to keep getting worse. And then if we take a look here at the storm
03:36surge, we're also in forecasting storm surge. So that's water above normally dry ground. So if you go and
03:42you step your feet in the water and then you kind of look up three to six feet above that and then
03:47straight inland, that's what we're going to be dealing with here. So here's the storm surge
03:51forecast. So you're looking at at least one to three feet from Wrightsville Beach all the way up
03:55through Virginia Beach and portions of Southern Maryland here. And then it looks like the core of
04:00that storm surge is going to be along the outer banks. Of course, three to six feet along the outer
04:05banks of North Carolina. We're expecting to see a lot of damage out there. The roads, the road out there
04:10is already being impacted right now. And we're still a day before the storm makes its closest
04:16path. So we're already seeing flooding in these areas and it's going to get a lot worse here over
04:20the next 24 hours. I was going to ask about flooding because of course, North Carolina experienced severe
04:26flooding during the 2024 hurricane season. How far inland do you expect that flooding to go?
04:33Well, the good news is we're not going to be seeing a lot of rainfall from this storm overall. There is
04:38going to be some rain ahead of the storm in portions of New York state, Connecticut, Massachusetts,
04:42but it's not really related to Erin. It's more related to the cold front that's coming to the
04:46east, stalling out and bringing some heavy rain to those areas. The good news is the storm is going
04:51to remain well enough offshore that the rain bands are just going to clip the outer banks of North
04:56Carolina. So we might see an inch or two of rain along the extreme outer banks of North Carolina,
05:00but we really don't expect to see much flooding from rainfall. Most of the flooding will be near the
05:06beaches from those big waves and from the onshore push that's going to cause those dangerous storm
05:12surges to come inland. Now, are there any areas of the east coast that are under evacuation orders or
05:18is everyone just being advised to watch carefully? I mean, due to the storm surge forecast and the big
05:24waves forecast, the outer banks of North Carolina has been evacuated. Those evacuation orders went up a
05:30couple of days ago. They were mandatory evacuations because they expect the road that runs along the
05:35outer banks to be compromised. It's already being compromised in certain areas. Saw some videos
05:40of that road already being washed over and we're still 24 hours before the storm even makes it up
05:45there. So that's the reason those evacuation orders were issued because they're expecting that it's
05:50going to be several days that you might not be able to get in or out of Cape Hatteras here because
05:54of the roads being compromised. So that's the area that is most of concern right now for flooding.
06:00But we also even have, you know, of course, there could still be some flooding even farther north than
06:05that. But the core of the damaging waves, the damaging flooding is going to be right along that North
06:11Carolina coastline. North Carolina coastline in store for some damaging flooding. But further north where I am in
06:18New York City, I know city beaches have been closed for Wednesday and I think Thursday too. So what will
06:26be the effect, say, north of the Carolinas and how much flooding could we perhaps expect to see in the
06:33New York City area? Yeah, I think in the New York City area, there's really not going to be a whole lot
06:37of flooding. There might be a little bit of tidal rise, but the main thing up in the New York City area
06:42and the Long Island beaches is going to be that dangerous rip current risk. And that's going to go
06:46throughout the rest of the week and maybe even into Saturday as well, potentially. So even after the storm is
06:51long gone, some of those waves will still be angry out there. And that's that that surf is still going to be
06:57very dangerous. So if those lifeguards are telling you not to go in the water, if those red flags are up, please,
07:03please, please heed those warnings and stay out of the water. We don't want your life to be put at risk and we
07:08don't want the lifeguards lives to be put at risk if they have to go out and rescue you if you didn't listen to
07:13them. So please, please, please stay out of the water. This is going to be a very dangerous week
07:17for East Coast beaches. Again, this is the entirety of the East Coast, Florida to Maine to Eastern
07:23Canada. Everybody needs to be very, very mindful of these dangerous rip currents. And a lot of times
07:28you can't see them and you step in the water, even if you go up just to your knees, you know,
07:34even if you kind of lose your footing, you can still be swept away. So please don't even enter the
07:39water at all along these East Coast beaches. It's going to be very, very dangerous out there this
07:44week. A dangerous week for East Coast beaches. That is a sober warning. When will we be in the
07:50clear up and down the East Coast all the way to Eastern Canada? Is Sunday the safe day or will
07:55this continue into next week? Yeah, in terms of beaches, you know, rip current risk, I think by Sunday,
08:01a lot of the rip current risk does come down. Of course, we still need to watch it just in case.
08:05But over the next couple of days, we do need to watch as the storm moves up the big waves over the
08:10next two days. So Wednesday, Thursday, maybe even into Friday as well. But we also need to watch the
08:15wind. So along the coast, Carolinas, the winds are really going to pick up during the day today
08:20and into tomorrow. So we need to watch for the heaviest winds along the outer banks of North
08:24Carolina, even extending up into portions of the southern Delmarva. So that's southern portions of
08:29Maryland here, maybe even into southern Delaware as well. 40 to 60 mile per hour wind gusts with an
08:34Mackieweather local storm acts of 80 towards the outer banks. I think if anybody's going to have
08:38a shot at around 70 or 80 miles per hour winds, it's going to be in the far outer banks. But then
08:43we even have to watch southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the islands have to be watched as well.
08:48Even though the storm is going to be moving well, well away from the coast here, that wind field is
08:52so expansive that we could even see 40 to 60 mile per hour winds in Cape Cod and the islands. And then
08:58even in some of the major cities, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Hartford, Providence,
09:04yeah, those winds are probably going to be less than 40 miles per hour. But we're still going to
09:07be seeing winds, maybe gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour, New York City, Hartford. So even areas
09:14well, well away from the coast can still at least experience some breezy conditions during the day on
09:20Thursday. Alright, so high winds, dangerous waves up and down the east coast for Hurricane Aaron. We're in
09:28the thick of hurricane season and possibly not even in the thick of it because it's still August. I know
09:32September can really be a doozy. But Alex, what else do you see brewing in the Atlantic? Are there other
09:39storms that are on the way? Yeah, there's at least two other areas that we're watching across the Atlantic.
09:44Both have about a high risk chance of development here over the next couple of days. This first tropical
09:49wave is actually going to follow us very similar track to Aaron, probably getting near the islands
09:53later this week, but then taking a turn to the north. Now we do expect this to stay off the east
09:58coast as we're going to have a dip in the jet stream that should kick it out to sea. But we're
10:01still going to have to watch the islands very carefully. And just in case it makes a little
10:05more of a jog to the west. The good news is we don't expect any rapid intensification with this
10:10because it's going to be following in a similar track that Hurricane Aaron did. And when Aaron went
10:15through, it really mixed up some of those ocean waters. We call that upwelling when cooler
10:19waters are mixed up to the surface. And so since this tropical wave is going to be following
10:23in Aaron's wake, it likely will be moving over cooler waters, which have less energy.
10:28And so we don't expect this one to really blow up into a category five or anything like
10:32that, which is certainly good news. The wave behind it is a little bit lower. It's a little
10:36bit more south. That one, I think, has a good chance of development here over the next
10:3948 hours or so. But then after that, by the time it starts to approach the islands down
10:44here, the environment becomes a little bit more hostile, a lot more dry air. And so that
10:49wave might actually fall apart before it makes it to the islands here. But we have a long
10:53way to go in the hurricane season. The statistical peak of the hurricane season is not until September
10:5710th. So we still have a long way to go. We're going to have to track many more tropical waves
11:02throughout the hurricane season.
11:03And I'm sure you will be watching them closely at AccuWeather. Alex Da Silva, thank you so much
11:08for joining us. We really appreciate your time and insight as always.
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