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00:00The question we asked today, it's a baseball topic question, and it fits because why?
00:04Aaron Judge is coming back into the Yankees lineup tonight, taking on the Texas Rangers.
00:08The question was posed, who will win the American League MVP?
00:11There's three choices.
00:13One is Aaron Judge.
00:14Two is Cal Raleigh.
00:15Three is, insert here, of who you think is going to win MVP.
00:19The way I voted, I actually think I'm getting some value here still on Aaron Judge,
00:23even though he's the favorite once again over Cal Raleigh.
00:25But the people have spoken, Joe, overwhelmingly, close to 60%, say it's Cal Raleigh, Donnie.
00:31You're wrong.
00:32It's not Aaron Judge.
00:33So technically, I'm fading the public, Joe.
00:35How about you?
00:37Yeah, I have to agree with you.
00:40I mean, this is that dreaded curse, and it feels like we see it every year.
00:44Guys that enter the home run derby who are having great, you know, first halves of the season,
00:50all of a sudden come out of the home run derby, and their swing is different.
00:54I mean, everything has changed a little bit.
00:56But more importantly, and he'll figure it out, Cal Raleigh, but he certainly doesn't
01:01look like the same guy prior to the home run derby.
01:04But the Aaron Judge situation, we're talking about a guy that we were three months ago,
01:09four months ago, saying, just name the award after him.
01:12That's it.
01:12Like, what are we doing here at this price?
01:15Now look at the price you can get him at, and look at the narrative around him.
01:19If the Yankees, if he comes back, and he's the catalyst for the Yankees, who always seem
01:24to lose 12 and win 15 in a row, you ain't getting him at that price anymore, Donnie.
01:30It's just not happening.
01:31So I think Aaron Judge, once again, is the front runner, because the Yankees apparently
01:36can't win without him.
01:38So if they do win when he gets back, there's your MVP.
01:42Aaron Judge, 342 on the season, 37 bombs, 85 RBI, and a 1.160 OPS, absolutely killing.
01:51And also, you had a chance for Cal Raleigh to sort of extend himself and run away with
01:56it.
01:57Not only didn't he do that, Cal Raleigh's now an underdog, and Judge hasn't played in
02:00a week and a half.
02:01That's hard to do.
02:02Why?
02:02Because you're striking out a lot, not getting a lot of bases.
02:04And what do the people want?
02:05They want home runs.
02:06But as we stated from that first half of the season, it's hard to hit a ton of home runs
02:10in Seattle, and maybe we're starting to run in a little bit of that slump here.
02:13But Aaron Judge right now is the favorite at a minus 220 price.
02:16Other guys that we talked about in that AL MVP race, Judge, Raleigh, Scoobo, Ramirez, and
02:21Kurtz.
02:21I don't think there's going to be anybody else that creeps into this.
02:24It will be Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh down the stretch as we go.
02:28Now, as the reason why we're talking a lot about Aaron Judge and the way this sets up for
02:32a big run for him to be the MVP and maybe rescue this New York Yankees season, they're
02:36going to have to do that tonight because Aaron Judge is expected to be in the lineup,
02:39at 965, 966, an 805 start tonight from Texas.
02:44That's the Yankees with Will Warren on the mound taking on Nathan Eovaldi.
02:47This line overnight, Joe, by the way, minus 150 range is a favorite for Texas.
02:52The buybacks are here.
02:53They're coming in on the Yankees who have dropped this line to a favorite for Texas
02:56anywhere around minus 125 to minus 130, depending on where you're shopping at.
03:00The total, we do have eights overnight, only one eight and a half out there at DraftKings.
03:04The rest are seemingly eight.
03:06Looks like a pitcher's duel tonight, but obviously, talk to me about Aaron Judge coming back to
03:10this lineup, just giving them a boost, which is what they need.
03:14Yeah, well, they need it in a big way with him.
03:17And I think Will Warren has been much better than some of his numbers show.
03:22He's just been a little bit unlucky, especially because, well, the defense has just not done
03:28him any favors over the last couple of months here.
03:32But, you know, Eovaldi is a guy that I've had circled because I believe he's got a little
03:37bit of negative regression coming as well.
03:40I think he's given up way too many hard hit balls, too many barrels that aren't leaving
03:45the ballpark.
03:46And the Yankees, man, they need their captain, right?
03:50They need Judge in this lineup.
03:51It should be good enough for them to be able to get past this at plus money here tonight.
03:57So, as much as I hate it, I think this is the spot to back the Yankees to get back on
04:03track with a W.
04:05It'd be a great W to get it over Nathan Eovaldi.
04:07Take a look at Eovaldi.
04:08Over the past 45 days, he has had, he's actually 5-0 with six starts, Joe.
04:1333 and two-thirds innings pitched, a 134 ERA coupled with a 3.26 XFIP number.
04:18If we slide it down to Will Warren, his last 41 and two-thirds innings pitched over the past
04:2245 days, a 4.32 ERA and a 4.34 XFIP number.
04:27Every night, it seems like, and again, the Yankees should have won last night.
04:29We told you, 3 of 15, I think it was, for runners in scoring position.
04:32They scored five runs.
04:33That should be good enough to win.
04:34The Yankees lineup, Grisham, Judge, Bellinger, Stanton, Chisholm, Rice, McMahon, Volpe, and
04:38Wells, every single one of those hitters, Joe, positive ISO power numbers.
04:43And outside of Austin Wells, same thing with the weighted on base percentages.
04:46Like, this team actually matches up really well.
04:48It's just a matter of what we're going to get from Nathan Eovaldi on the mound.
04:51Now, when we take a look and say, all right, well, how's Will Warren doing?
04:54Does struggle a little bit with lefties.
04:55You know, Corey Seager's in that lineup, and also Rowdy Tellez with good numbers.
04:58But if we're just looking at one through nines, the Yankees should be the better team tonight.
05:02It's just a matter of sometimes, Joe, that's starting pitching just overpowering the other
05:06team, and Eovaldi can do that.
05:08Yeah, he can do that, too.
05:10But he also has got some regression coming his way.
05:14The Yankees can definitely put the barrel on the ball.
05:17And that ballpark has suddenly went from being an under-ballpark, Donnie, to all of a sudden
05:23an over-ballpark.
05:25Wouldn't shock me at all, too, if the Yankees cleared their team total in this one.
05:30Now, hold on with this.
05:31We understand how some price points happen here.
05:33I'm looking at Aaron Judge to hit a home run tonight.
05:36Like, ooh, his first game back, plus 320, plus 330, good pitcher.
05:39He's plus 190.
05:41Like, VFOL is a good pitcher.
05:42He's plus 190 first game back seeing live pitching at this one.
05:46Because correct me if I'm wrong, I think Aaron Judge went to Trenton or whatever to
05:49have a rehab start.
05:51More baseball next.
05:52Let's handicap the card in here.
05:54Right back out of here on the early line.
05:55It's not, he writes out.
05:56It's Joe Ranieri at SiriusXM Channel 159.
05:58On the Sports Grid Network, your place to be.
06:00We love Major League Baseball.
06:01We love the handicap.
06:02And at the end of the show, more best bet winners here.
06:04Make sure you stay tuned.
06:06But in the meantime, we just talked about the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers.
06:09Oh, boy, do the Yankees need a victory here.
06:11Well, don't look now.
06:12You know who else starts to need some victories?
06:13Those Chicago Cubs, who look like they were going to run away with the Central Division
06:17in the National League, no longer the case.
06:19Now it looks like the Brewers might run away from this.
06:22Game number two, Cincinnati and Chicago.
06:24Zach Littell's on the mound going up against Shota Imanaga, the left-handed pitcher for
06:27the Chicago Cubs.
06:29955-956 on the rotation.
06:31An 8.05 start.
06:32How about this heavy favorite for the Cubs today?
06:34Opened up overnight around minus 180.
06:36Still sitting at minus 180 at most shops here.
06:39A total, which opened up at eight.
06:40Still some eights in the atmosphere, but seven and a half now starting to prevail.
06:44Lower totals here in Chicago means one thing.
06:46The wind isn't blowing out.
06:48But the Cincinnati Reds got the best of the Cubs yesterday.
06:50Do they get the best of the Cubs as a bigger dog today, Joe?
06:54It wasn't.
06:55Littell is going here.
06:57His first game for the Reds since coming over from the Cubs.
07:01And listen, advantage, big advantage here to Imanaga and the Cubs, I think.
07:08But not hitting.
07:10I mean, what else can you say here besides the fact that we just can't seem to get this
07:14Cubs offense when we think they're going to be or really have some advantages?
07:19They don't deliver here.
07:21Listen, I don't know that Cincinnati is going to rough up Imanaga here at all.
07:26And I think Zach Littell is going to have some success early on in this lineup.
07:30I like the first five under, Donnie.
07:32I think we get a bit of a pitcher's battle early.
07:34And then, again, once these bullpens, who have both been overworked, get involved in
07:39this game, that's probably where it's going to be decided.
07:42But I'm going to go under four in the first five with these two pitchers.
07:46You know, see what wins out, right?
07:48Because take a look at Zach Littell.
07:49Forty and two-thirds innings pitched here through seven starts over his past 45 days.
07:52Got to go to ERA, Joe.
07:532.88.
07:54XFIP is higher at 4.39.
07:56Shota Imanaga.
07:57He has seven starts here over the past 45 days.
07:5938 and a third innings pitched.
08:01And if we line him up, that's a 376 ERA, which isn't bad, but a 4.49 XFIP number.
08:06The XFIP numbers are higher.
08:07The wind is blowing in.
08:09We'll see what happens at that point, really.
08:10How many fly balls are you going to give up?
08:11How many strikeouts can you get today?
08:13I just don't know if I like the Cubs at that high of a price, even though they are better
08:17than the Cincinnati Reds.
08:18We'll certainly see how that plays out.
08:19But Imanaga needs to be that stopper tonight.
08:21They need to pick up a victory.
08:22They can't let the Brewers get another victory over the Braves, which we'll take a look at.
08:26And more importantly, then they just take a loss themselves for the Chicago Cubs.
08:29Late night action, Los Angeles Dodgers, don't seem to be as powerful as what we thought
08:33they would be, Joe, here in 2025.
08:36Michaelis will be on the mound here for the Cardinals, going up against the Dodgers, Emmett
08:39Sheehan.
08:409-59, 9-60 on the rotation, a 10-10 start.
08:43This favorite overnight, right around that minus 200 price point, it's coming down.
08:47You see the graphic about to pop on the screen at a minus 190 price.
08:50Other outlets as low as a minus 180, a total of nine across the board.
08:54Well, it's tough just to see, like, yeah, it's the Dodgers at home and I'll take them.
08:57Just not playing that dominant baseball as we maybe anticipated right now.
09:02Yeah, well, I mean, the Dodgers got Max Muncy back from the IL last night, so that's good.
09:08But what a game that was.
09:10I didn't see last night at all Sonny Gray being able to go toe-to-toe with glass now.
09:16And then, you know, the Cardinals end up getting it done in the top of the ninth there with a,
09:21with a, what, two-out pinch hit single, which is what the difference in the game was.
09:26I think that turns around in this one here.
09:30Bullpen is in good shape for the Dodgers in this one.
09:33Glass now went seven last night.
09:35I do think the bats get back on track here.
09:38I would probably lay the run in this one with the Dodgers.
09:42Minus one, not the one and a half, but minus one here because I think the bats come alive against Mikolas.
09:49Yeah, we take a look, too, at Emmett Sheehan on the mound.
09:52Does struggle a little bit with lefties.
09:53That's the point of attack I probably would go with here.
09:55Not a strikeout pitcher, not a ground ball pitcher, which means the ball will be in the air.
09:59Alec Burleson as a lefty has really done well over the past month here, Joe, against right-handed pitching
10:03to the tune of a 220 ISO and a 360 weighted on base percentage.
10:06Also, Lars Newbar, only 18 at-bats against righties over the past month,
10:09but a 333 ISO and a 384 weighted on base percentage.
10:13We'll see if that goes over.
10:14But again, Dodgers, bats, everybody should hit Miles Michaelis at this point.
10:17Everybody.
10:18We just don't know if that's the case.
10:19And also, is it just the fact that, okay, the Dodgers win, they only go as far as Otani takes them,
10:24RBI shot, double, home run, whatever it might be for Shohei tonight in that circumstance.
10:29We'll find out.
10:29But the Dodgers, for me, haven't been on my card all that much, Joe.
10:32Money line, run line, you know, even some batter's props here.
10:35I just need to see better out of the Dodgers.
10:37And maybe that starts tonight against Miles Michaelis.
10:39New York Mets and the Cleveland Guardians.
10:41That's Allen, the lefty on the mound, going up against the right-handed pitcher, Clay Holmes, for the Mets.
10:45977, 978 on the rotation.
10:47A 7-10 start tonight.
10:48Heavy favor for the Mets.
10:50Minus 174 price.
10:51But that has dropped from the overnight numbers here to the minus 160s
10:55and even into the minus 150s at this point at some outlets.
10:58An 8.5 total.
10:59The Philadelphia Phillies won last night.
11:01The Mets lost.
11:01That stretches the Phillies' lead to one and a half games over the Mets.
11:04Do they bounce back tonight against those Guardians?
11:08Lock it.
11:08Maybe, but the problem is, again, we've got a Clay Holmes, a reliever,
11:14who has thrown more innings so far this year as a starter
11:17than he has thrown in the last couple of seasons.
11:20I worry about fatigue here with him.
11:23And not to mention, I mean, listen, Allen is not exactly a guy that is going to move the needle,
11:29but he's a lefty, and the Mets can't hit lefties right now.
11:33So I think the Guardians, the way they're swinging the bat right now with Ramirez,
11:37I think they got an advantage early in this one.
11:42Don't trust the Mets against the lefty.
11:44I'm going to go with the Guardians in the first five in this one.
11:46There you go.
11:47And if you want the Guardians' full game here, it looks like high prices,
11:50plus 143, plus 138 in that range here.
11:52Clay Holmes, as you pointed out, Joe, 25th on the card today with an XFIP of 4.72,
11:58leaking a little bit, 34 and a third innings pitched over his past 45 days.
12:01That's a 4.46 ERA.
12:04And as we just said, a 4.72 XFIP number, slightly higher here.
12:07If we take a look at the other pitcher, Logan Allen, not a great pitcher,
12:10but 42 and a third innings pitched over his last 45 days, Joe, 383 ERA,
12:14which is better, obviously, here than we just talked about Clay Holmes,
12:17and also an XFIP that is slightly better at a 4.05.
12:20Pressure's on as we start to build up because you can't let games get away,
12:24which means that, oh, it's still March and April and May.
12:27These games in August, where you now sit one and a half,
12:29then the two and a half, then three and a half games back, hard to make up.
12:32As we talk about the Chicago Cubs, they're trying to lose games to the Cincinnati Reds.
12:35Can't do that when the Milwaukee Brewers are pounding teams right now,
12:38which includes last night's game against the Atlanta Braves
12:40or the Philadelphia Phillies, who won last night in easy fashion
12:43against the Baltimore Orioles.
12:44Every loss now really starts to compound as we head down the stretch.
12:48There's going to be more games that we're going to take a look at
12:50and have some fun with, which includes Kansas City and Boston.
12:53I'm telling you, Joe, I like that Boston lineup a lot.
12:56And then the Chicago White Sox out in Seattle.
12:58We'll see if Kyle Raleigh can certainly right the ship.
13:00So a lot more Major League Baseball on deck.
13:01And also, Kevin Walsh is going to make an appearance here bright and early
13:05on a Tuesday morning right here on the early line.
13:07It's where it goes down.
13:09Third base isn't the hot corner.
13:10The hot corner is the early line with Joe Ranieri and Donnie.
13:13Right, Sox, right back there.
13:16Ain't no stopping us now.
13:18Do they play that after every Boston Red Sox game?
13:20Now it seems like they win every game.
13:22Joe Ranieri, winners of six straight games at home once again tonight
13:26to take on the Kansas City Royals.
13:27It's Bergett versus Crochet, the left-handed pitcher for the Red Sox.
13:319-63, 9-64, the rotation.
13:337-10 start tonight from Fenway.
13:35Look at this price point, Joe.
13:36Overnight, minus $2.55.
13:38We now still sit minus $2.50s out there,
13:40depending on which sportsbook that you're looking at now.
13:42Eight and a half, so I've dropped to eights here.
13:44Is this another easy victory for the Boston Red Sox as we see it priced that way?
13:50Yeah, well, if it's too good to be true, right, Donnie?
13:54Sometimes you've got to take a step back here.
13:57Listen, I am not laying that kind of number here.
14:01Kansas City has actually played pretty good baseball here since coming out of the break.
14:08Crochet is good.
14:09It's the bullpen that worries me here a little bit.
14:13I'm shocked that the number is going down with the total, though, Donnie.
14:16From eight and a half to eight is what you're telling me here.
14:19I'll follow that trend, though, because I think runs might be a little harder to come by early in this one.
14:26So I'll cut the game in half, and I'll go under in the first five.
14:30Yeah, they dropped yesterday, five runs in the first inning, which I love.
14:33They even went to bet 365 and got a boosted three-leg parlay yesterday from this game, which hit easily here.
14:38That lineup looks great, Joe, on a day-to-day base.
14:41Like, who would have thought, like, oh, yeah, we're going to get rid of Raphael Devers,
14:43one of the better hitters in baseball, and we're going to be just fine.
14:46They look just fine right now.
14:47Garrett Crochet is my number one pitcher on the card today with XFIP, Joe.
14:52His last six starts equated to five victories and no losses.
14:5639 innings pitched over the past 45 days, an ERA of 2.31, and a sparkling XFIP of 2.43, Joe.
15:03Big number, though, as you're right for the Red Sox at this point, but also the question is asked.
15:08When you have a streak, it is hard to fade it, but it sounds like you might be fading it tonight.
15:12I'm looking to – I think we're going to get a little bit more pitching here, a little less over-the-top home runs all over the place.
15:23So, yeah, fewer runs for me here tonight.
15:26Oh, I like where you're going on fewer runs, Joe, because we're going to go to the Pacific Northwest.
15:30We're used to fewer runs, and hint, hint, we might be getting fewer runs in this ballgame.
15:359-67, 9-68, a 9-40 start out west.
15:38That's the Chicago White Sox taking on the Seattle Mariners.
15:41Martin on the mound, the right-handed pitcher for the White Sox going up against Mr. Brian Wu, another right-handed pitcher for the Seattle Enns.
15:48Minus $2.50 as a price point overnight.
15:51Still sits, Joe.
15:52Minus $2.50.
15:53Monster favorites we're talking about now, and a total of 7.5.
15:58What are the thought processes here in the Pacific Northwest at T-Mobile?
16:01Ball stays in the yard, ball goes out of the yard.
16:03Monster favorite, monster dog.
16:05Who is it?
16:06You know, Don, I've been saying, right, the White Sox quietly have become a pretty good team as a dog to back.
16:14They've been playing some great baseball, and not just recently.
16:18I mean, this is going back over the last month.
16:21They have actually been playing really good.
16:23They're hitting.
16:23They've got absolutely no pressure.
16:25They've already won more games than they did a year ago.
16:29But having said that, do I think they're going to rough up Brian Wu?
16:33The answer is absolutely not.
16:36I do think here that Seattle is going to get back on track.
16:39I'm not going to go lay this number, but I can tell you this.
16:42I think the White Sox team total might be worth a look to the under here today.
16:48I think runs are going to be hard to come by for the White Sox.
16:53You know, Joe brought up a good topic here because we always talk the haves and the have-nots,
16:56which is always my terminology coming around that trade deadline where it's like,
16:59okay, this team's not trying to win games.
17:01Don't worry about the side itself.
17:03And by the way, the White Sox have been playing much better baseball.
17:06But I've used in the past couple days, Joe, multiple White Sox games as a team total
17:10because the numbers are there.
17:12Understand this.
17:13These players get paid based on their statistics, not the wins that they provide for the team.
17:18So if everybody's hitting and they're still losing, the players don't care.
17:21They're going to get paid for that.
17:22They're going to have their best performances at the plate each and every night.
17:24So even when you see those minus 250 prices, I don't know if I can take the White Sox.
17:28I'm telling you, when they're taking on bad pitchers, those guys will hit and they've been doing that.
17:32Now, tonight, Brian Wu's 43 and two-thirds innings pitched over the past 45 days.
17:36A three ERA, which is really good, a 340 XF number, which is great.
17:39But most people haven't heard anything about, ah, who's just a Davis Martin kid.
17:43Ten innings pitched over the past 45 days, which isn't a lot.
17:46His ERA is slightly higher, but a 3.76.
17:49Like, he should be able to hold the bats down also.
17:51Sometimes, Joe, isn't it just park indicative of where you're at?
17:54We're not at Wrigley with the wind blowing out 20 miles per hour.
17:57It's hard to hit the ball out of the yard there in T-Mobile.
18:01I think the under makes a lot of sense as well.
18:02But you're right.
18:03High price.
18:03High price, though, Joe, that number tonight.
18:06Too high a price for such a low total in a game in a pitcher's ballpark.
18:10And let's face it, we haven't exactly seen Seattle outside of the break.
18:15Their best hitter, we mentioned, at Cal Raleigh, struggling a little bit right now.
18:20I'd be careful laying that kind of number.
18:22World Series is always the goal in Major League Baseball.
18:25Teams make moves at the trade deadline to ramp up for that postseason.
18:29Kevin Walsh is here with us this morning, along with Joe Rainier.
18:31And I'm having fun with this topic because the Yankees, they loaded up their bullpen.
18:34It looks like they made it actually worse in the past couple of days, if that's possible.
18:38But the savior is coming back tonight.
18:41And also, the MVP candidate who was a favorite of minus $20,000, who was an underdog price,
18:46now a favorite to win it once again, that's Aaron Judge, because Cal Raleigh can't hit
18:49his way right now out of a paper bag.
18:50But I need the encapsulation right now of the New York Yankees.
18:55What's the deal?
18:56When do they break out of it?
18:57When's Boone gone?
18:58What changes are being made?
18:59Because it can't stay the same, Kevin.
19:01Or can it?
19:02No, it can't.
19:04I mean, the whole thing is ridiculous.
19:05You have Aaron Judge, who is arguably the best player in Major League Baseball.
19:11Who is the second best hitter on this team?
19:14Is it Stanton for postseason pedigree?
19:17Is it Jazz Chisholm, who half the fan base once benched and ran out of town?
19:22Like, they didn't add a star in any capacity for that lineup.
19:26The idea was we've attacked the bullpen, which is why Aaron Boone keeps running out of closer
19:32with a 5 ERA, who lost the job and only got it back because of other injuries that took place.
19:40They're in third place in the division.
19:43They nearly have top three odds to win a World Series.
19:47Who's betting that?
19:48Who is possibly betting the New York Yankees at these numbers?
19:52If you doubled the price, I'd be interested.
19:58I probably still wouldn't make the bet.
20:01What's their case for?
20:03Every single Yankees case is basically, ah, but they have Aaron Judge.
20:08And unfortunately for Big 99, when the postseason starts, that's not as simple of a case to make.
20:15So the Yankees odds, again, would need to double for me to even take them somewhat serious.
20:22Does it make more sense to bet them not to make the postseason, Kev, at this point?
20:28What are we thinking?
20:30Well, so they're now deep in this wildcard race.
20:34Seattle is set up, I think, to go on a nice little run here because the pitching is, for the most part, healthy.
20:41And, you know, we've all been waiting for, you know, the Mariners pitching to lead to a ton of success.
20:47And I think that they were being, you know, in being so aggressive at the deadline, they're set up to actually connect on that.
20:53So you have this Rangers team whose offense is totally uninspiring.
20:58You know, Adolis Garcia was probably a one-time thing.
21:01Marcus Simeon looks very washed.
21:04Corey Seeger's, you know, a little up and down.
21:06Wyatt Langford not ready.
21:08And yet, the Rangers, if they finish off this series against the Yankees, I believe will supplant them for the third wildcard spot in the American League.
21:17So, like, I don't think the Blue Jays are all that good, quite frankly.
21:21Like, I think the Blue Jays are fraudulent.
21:23And I know that could be sacrilegious to say in some corners of this network.
21:26But the Blue Jays probably should have better World Series odds than the Yankees because the Blue Jays are definitely going to the postseason where you have this situation with the Yankees.
21:37Like, Judge coming back doesn't mean he's going to come back and be, you know, hitting .340 in a home run every other game.
21:44He's injured.
21:45So, I don't think it's a guarantee that Judge is going to be fantastic right away.
21:51Certain sportsbooks expecting him to be fantastic.
21:53Probably his first step back, going yard tonight, welcoming himself back.
21:57But also, if we do look at the NDP markets, I'm going to tip on the National League in just a few moments because what Schwarber is doing the past couple nights and what his impact is in his race certainly we'll talk about.
22:06But our focus is on Aaron Judge, who, again, Kevin, the minus 20,000s to the plus money numbers to now minus 280 as he's creeping up even higher today.
22:14I always thought it was going to be Otani and Judge and the price points of, hey, Judge in the IL.
22:20Joe and I talked about this ad nauseum the past week and a half.
22:22Wait a second.
22:23He's on the IL.
22:24He's going to be healthy and coming back.
22:25Now you're getting a plus money number based on a minus 20,000 that was there previous just weeks before.
22:31Aaron Judge at minus 280.
22:32Like, I still think he's the MVP.
22:33I always thought he was the MVP unless that elbow injury would have a Tommy John and he's down for the year.
22:39Yeah.
22:39I just think at this point, Donnie, right?
22:42Like, if you were able to get in at the plus 120, plus 125 that existed for a day, great.
22:47But at this point, like, what are we doing now, right?
22:50Because now you go back to a little bit of the uncertainty of it all.
22:54Like, Judge, I feel like, didn't even want to go on the IL.
22:57He's like, just let me hit.
22:58And the Yanks are like, no.
23:00So, again, either they're awfully ran, certainly on the board, or they're a little bit more concerned about the elbow than everyone else, right?
23:08Like, Judge plays today.
23:10Is it a guarantee he plays the next game?
23:12I don't think it's – I mean, it's likely.
23:14But I just think we are in a little bit of a wait and see mode.
23:17Now, I will say this, if Judge connects on that home run price, he's going to go to about minus 500 to an MVP because that's the way they move these odds on one-game instances.
23:30It's so funny because he was actually playing great defense, too, before the injury, and now it's going to be a whirlwind out in right field.
23:39And ironically enough, it has nothing to do with why they've been losing these games.
23:43It's not because he's not in the lineup, Donnie.
23:45It's because they can't catch and field the ball, and the bullpen is horrific here.
23:51But it's – the Yankees that's do or die, I don't blame Boone.
23:56Do you?
23:57Does Boone have to go?
23:59So, I've given Boone more grace, I think, than other, you know, Yankee fans.
24:06But this season's been pretty bad.
24:09I don't – I don't know.
24:11So, like, again, the whole deadline, every Yankees podcast, what a deadline.
24:18Wow.
24:19They finally stepped up.
24:21The bullpen arms they added.
24:23And now they just keep blowing safes.
24:24I mean, it's a bit.
24:25I mean, it's – the whole thing feels like an absolute joke.
24:29So, again, I don't – like, is it not Aaron Boone's decision as to who goes out and closes the game?
24:35Because, again, if not, then why not just change the vibes and let someone else do it?
24:39If he's making no decisions, I don't know, then just go let Joe Torre stand back there.
24:44Honestly, like, what are we doing?
24:46Ah, go Joe Torre.
24:47Look, they never should have knocked down the old stadium.
24:49That's where it all stems from at this point now.
24:51Go back to the old stadium.
24:52Rebuild it.
24:53Maybe they have to scrap it somewhere.
24:54Their first season in the new stadium.
24:56It was a fake one.
24:56It was a fake one.
24:57A-Rod was all juiced up.
24:58Never should have happened.
25:00Beat the Philadelphia Phillies, which never should have happened.
25:02Cliff Lee on the mound.
25:03Should have had Roy Holiday in town to help on that one.
25:04If that's for here, nor there.
25:06How about the Cubs?
25:07The Cubs won a World Series a few short years ago, it seems like, right now.
25:10Breaking that curse.
25:11Looks like they're cursed right now.
25:12Why?
25:12Because the Brewers can have just a better baseball club right now.
25:15What's the thought process quickly on the Cubs the rest of the way?
25:17Are they biting back?
25:18Do they take over the brew crew?
25:20Donnie, I know we rarely look at baseball schedules, but five games left between the Cubs and the Brewers,
25:27all at Wrigley Field.
25:29I still think Chicago wins that division.
25:32The Cubbies for the division.
25:34The cream rises to the top.
25:35That's what Kevin's saying.
25:36He's got to get prepared for GTD in just a few hours, I believe.
25:41Start time, 630.
25:42Thank you, Kevin, for joining us today.
25:43Love it.
25:44What an action-packed show right here on the Early Line for a Tuesday.
25:47It's how we get down, people.
25:48It's a big Major League Baseball card.
25:49We're looking forward to having fun with that.
25:51Also, more importantly, profiting of it as well.
25:53We're going to go over some picks in just a few moments.
25:55But before we do that, the changing of the sports landscape, Joe, on a night-to-night basis, sometimes we see big movements, sometimes we don't.
26:02The MVP markets seem like they were settled in a month ago.
26:04Oh, it's Otani?
26:05Yeah, it's easy.
26:05And it's also Aaron Judge.
26:07Not the case now.
26:08Aaron Judge, a minus 280 price here over Cal Raleigh.
26:10But in the National League, Kyle Schwarber, two home runs last night, 40th of the year.
26:15One of them was a Grand Slam, six RBI.
26:17I still think Shohei Otani is going to win the MVP in the National League.
26:21But Schwarber last night was an 11-to-1 price.
26:23Currently, right now, he's plus 440.
26:26Like, he is storming up that leaderboard here, passing Pete Crow Armstrong now.
26:30It's hard to ignore what he is doing here, but it just feels like, as long as Otani maintains and continues to do what he's doing, he is going to be really hard.
26:45At some point, we're going to get Otani fatigue.
26:48Maybe it starts next year, but Schwarber's going to have to keep the pressure on here if we're going to have any chance of him actually taking down that award.
26:57Yeah, it's crazy.
26:58Because, again, Otani just needs, like, one week, Joe, two home runs, four innings pitched on the mound, and away he goes.
27:03Like, he's still a heavy price at minus 550, and we talk about, like, how can you surpass?
27:07Like, for us, with Cal Raleigh, he's got to hit, like, 65 home runs and Judge hits 55.
27:10Same thing with Schwarber.
27:11Like, Schwarber's got 40 bombs.
27:13He'd probably get into the 60s to have a chance to knock off Otani because of how much he has in that lead and certainly the expectations.
27:19But certainly fun to watch, no doubt about it.
27:21You know what else is more fun even, Joe?
27:23Picking winners, baby!
27:24Bye, bye, bye.
27:28I don't think Ranieri's lost the entire summary on his Major League Baseball action wagers.
27:38That's why we let him lead off.
27:39So, another victory last night with the Milwaukee Brewers' first five innings over the Atlanta Braves.
27:45And now we take a look at today's action.
27:47Joe, where are we going on this Major League Baseball card?
27:50Well, you can always go back to the Brewers, it feels like, with Peralta going on the mound.
27:56But I'm going to avoid doing that here, Donnie.
27:58Instead, I am going to go out west to Arizona.
28:02And I'm going to look at a total here tonight.
28:04I'm going to back the under nine with the Padres and the Diamondbacks.
28:09Hugh Darvish really starting to round into form here.
28:13He's kind of shaking off the rust.
28:16His command seems to be back.
28:18Great last outing there.
28:20Seven innings pitch, two hits, no walks, seven strikeouts.
28:25He's really starting to come into it.
28:27Not to mention, the Padres didn't have to use any of their elite back-end arms last night.
28:33The 6-2 loss.
28:34So, Mason Miller is available.
28:36Suarez is Miller.
28:37That bullpen is absolutely elite.
28:41And then you've got Nelson going here, who has also been much better at home than on the road.
28:48And you still have an Arizona lineup without, you know, Suarez and Naylor.
28:52And not against Hugh Darvish.
28:54I don't think runs are coming in this game tonight.
28:57I think both offenses are going to struggle.
29:00I'll take the under nine.
29:01Would not shock me if this thing lands eight and a half by the time the game starts.
29:05Takes 10 to beat you.
29:07It means Joe needs double-digit runs to lose that one.
29:10I'm also going to follow up with an under as well.
29:11Pacific Northwest hinted at this a few segments ago.
29:15Chicago White Sox and the Seattle Mariners in up there, excuse me, at T-Mobile.
29:19I look at Wu, really good pitcher.
29:21I look on the opposite side.
29:22Martin can be a decent pitcher to hold it down.
29:24Five-two final Mariners.
29:25They walk away with an easy victory.
29:27Still stays under the total.
29:28So, for me, I'm going under.
29:30Pacific Northwest action.
29:31Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners under.
29:33Seven and a half at a minus 120 price.
29:35That's where we have that.
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