Storms move into Minnesota Monday; next thunderstorm threat comes Friday

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00:00Well, we are tracking some thunderstorms that will be developing later today.

00:03Western Minnesota could see some severe storms,

00:05and then a quiet, dry midweek before more showers and storms develop Friday.

00:19Seasonable temperatures today should see highs in the mid-80s here across southern Minnesota,

00:23upper 70s to low 80s in the northern part of the state,

00:26and still relatively comfortable dew points compared to what we had over the weekend.

00:29And low 60s here occasionally in the southern part of the state with 50s to the north.

00:35But we've got some ongoing showers and thunderstorms to the west.

00:38This is the area we're watching for further development later in the day today.

00:41Kind of a clipper-like system, a little spin here, a loft of cool air generating instability.

00:46And these clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be popping up here again,

00:51filling it back in here through the afternoon hours in the western part of the state.

00:54So there's that little clipper system.

00:55And then we've got another one of these upper-level lows coming through on Friday

00:59that'll generate more instability and the next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

01:03But in between, tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, looking mostly dry.

01:06And hopefully we can get that Friday system out of here mostly in time for the better part of the weekend.

01:11I think Saturday and Sunday should look pretty good.

01:13But storms pop in here early to mid-afternoon in the west,

01:16and then those storms will track east-southeast.

01:18But you can see largely fizzling as they reach eastern Minnesota.

01:21Our atmosphere will be a little less conducive for stronger storms later today

01:25and the timing coming in probably at or after dark here in the eastern part of the state.

01:30So marginal risk, level one out of five per severe storms for the Twin Cities, central and northeastern Minnesota.

01:35But slight risk, and even that enhanced risk, level three out of five,

01:39just touching the Minnesota-South Dakota border.

01:41But this is what the instability picture looks like this afternoon.

01:43Those higher values of instability, CAPE, convective available potential energy in that enhanced risk area.

01:49And then you can see really that instability drops off here as we go eastward.

01:54So one of the main threats we're looking at today in particular is a high wind threat.

01:58Looks like we could see some damaging wind gusts,

02:00maybe some bow echoes with those storms that develop in eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.

02:05One of the models that we use here, the high-resolution rapid refresh model,

02:09hinting at those wind gusts.

02:10But you can see these really aren't severe.

02:12Better chance of them being stronger, those yellows and oranges, those are higher wind gusts in western Minnesota.

02:16Same thing when we look at the updraft helicity tracks in the models.

02:21Generally, western Minnesota and in Nebraska, South Dakota, that's where we'll see those stronger storms.

02:25So we're looking at leftovers, and that means less rainfall too, probably, in eastern Minnesota.

02:30Western Minnesota, that's where we could see an inch or more of rain.

02:33Of course, locally higher amounts than any thunderstorms that develop.

02:36But yeah, largely kind of tapering off to maybe hundreds or a couple tenths of an inch of rain here in eastern Minnesota.

02:42We don't really need any more rain right now either, though.

02:44And then tomorrow, just a slight chance of an isolated pop-up shower, maybe some lingering instability.

02:48But otherwise, sunshine is back, highs back in the 80s.

02:52Dew points should stay in the 50s for northern Minnesota, low 60s here in the southern part of the state,

02:55which is relatively comfortable for July.

02:57But by Thursday, those dew points will start to move upward again, getting pretty sticky by late Thursday.

03:03That'll help set the stage for that next upper-level low,

03:06that next widespread chance of rain and thunder Thursday night into Friday and Friday night.

03:10Kind of waves of thunderstorms midday, sort of steamy, maybe some peaks of sun Friday,

03:14but then more storms generating in the evening and afternoon hours.

03:18And probably some lingering showers for northern Minnesota Saturday.

03:21More hit-and-miss showers, though, not widespread activity.

03:24And we'll have to watch to see if we could see some strong storms.

03:27It'll depend on the timing of that system and how much sun we can get Friday.

03:30But we could get enough instability to generate at least some isolated severe activity.

03:34It's just that time here, any time we have a chance of a thunderstorm.

03:38But today, the chance is mainly this evening and overnight for the Twin Cities.

03:42Mid-80s today and tomorrow.

03:43Sunshine's back tomorrow.

03:44Again, isolated shower chance, but I think it's pretty low tomorrow.

03:47And then nice here Wednesday, Thursday, before that widespread thunder chance Friday.

03:52Hopefully pushing that out of here in time for the weekend.

03:54Again, northern Minnesota, best bet of some lingering clouds and some pop-up showers here still Saturday.

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