Blocking pattern keeps Minnesota warmer, drier than normal for next week

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00:00Well, we have a blocking pattern here this week into much of next week, which means warmer than

00:04normal conditions and drier than normal conditions. Very little precip or weather to speak of,

00:08just some temperature fluctuations.

00:20Well, we did it. Our first 80 of the season yesterday comes about on time.

00:24The modern average for the first 80 is about April 29th. But when we look at the historic

00:29average, it's in the first week of May. So about on target. 85 even in Padet yesterday in northwestern

00:35Minnesota. Pretty incredible. Warmest temperatures in the northwestern part of the state. Even

00:39International Falls was 82 yesterday, a degree warmer than us. So widespread, upper 70s and

00:44low 80s, except for right near Lake Superior. And that'll be the case this week, all week. In fact,

00:49temperatures will be cooler right near the Big Lake. Not surprising. Water temperatures there in

00:53the 30s to near 40 degrees. Lots of sunshine here across the central U.S. and upper Midwest.

00:59So get used to that. If you like yesterday's weather, we've got a string of them this week

01:03and early next week. About 15 degrees above normal. So back in the upper 70s today, still some low 80s

01:08in western Minnesota. And then tomorrow, ahead of a cool front, we're going to see temperatures pop

01:12back up probably into the low 80s here in the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota. But notice the

01:1760s in the northwest. We've got a weak cool front coming through tomorrow. And that's really the only

01:21weather we're tracking are these just up and down temperature fluctuations. We've got this blocking

01:25pattern with two upper level lows, one in the southeast, one in the southwest that's pumping

01:29up this upper level ridge, which means warm, dry, stable conditions here in the central U.S.

01:34And these omega blocks, omega meaning the Greek letter omega, which looks like a W, are very slow

01:41to break down and move. So stagnant weather pattern here overall with all the precip really confined

01:46to the southern and eastern U.S. The seven-day rainfall forecast here, big hole of dry weather

01:52from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and much of the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska. So a little bit of

01:58a wind shift tomorrow we'll be tracking. South winds today and early tomorrow. But you can see

02:02the winds pick up and switch out of the northwest here across northwestern Minnesota. And that cool

02:06front will slide through late tomorrow into tomorrow night. So it'll be a little cooler Wednesday

02:10and Thursday. But this front largely goes through pretty dry. Maybe just an isolated shower or two

02:15for northern Minnesota is going to be about it. And that's literally it for weather this week during the

02:21work week. The high resolution rapid refresh model creating a little bit of precip, maybe a hundredth

02:27or two hundredths of an inch in northwestern Minnesota. But southern Minnesota, we're not

02:30going to see much of anything, just a shift in the winds. And those temperatures, while cooler Wednesday

02:34and Thursday, are still going to be above normal with another blast of even warmer air moving in for

02:38Friday, probably back up towards 80 degrees. It will be around 80 this weekend too. Keep in mind,

02:44the normal high is about 65, 66 degrees. So a good 10, 15 degrees plus above normal. But it will be

02:51cooler Wednesday. Low 70s. Southern Minnesota, 60s to the north. Still very pleasant. Still lots of sun.

02:56And we keep that omega block in place much of the week. It'll start to break down as that southwestern

03:01low moves east. And we see a bigger upper level trough develop in the west by late next week. Maybe

03:07we'll get into a stormier pattern, at least temporarily late next week. But that's still a ways off.

03:12Overall, the outlook looks like kind of what we're seeing now. Above normal temperatures. High

03:17likelihood for Minnesota and the Dakotas through the month of May below normal precip. So this might

03:22be setting the stage for what we see overall much of this month. Dry here in the northern U.S. and wet

03:29in Texas and parts of the south central U.S. We made some great progress on the drought monitor.

03:33We might be seeing rainfall deficits again develop here over the next week or two. 78 today, plenty of sun.

03:40And look at all the sun here. I think maybe just a few clouds early Saturday. That's it. 82 tomorrow.

03:46Cooler Wednesday, Thursday. But those temperatures are still about 5 to 7 degrees above normal.

03:5281 again by Friday. A gorgeous weekend overall. Just a very isolated chance of a shower early Saturday

03:57with another very weak front coming through. But yeah, near 80 degrees Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

04:03Still well above normal.

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