Will severe storm threat Thursday reach the Twin Cities?

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00:00Well, temperatures will be warmer today. One last day of dry weather with sunshine. We've got

00:04storms on the way for Thursday, potentially some severe weather in southern Minnesota,

00:07then things clear out for the weekend before another series of systems move through early next

00:12week. Pretty chilly this morning. 11 degrees, the low up on Seagull Lake. A lot of teens here on the

00:28Iron Range and in northeastern Minnesota, which is below normal even for them. On April the 16th,

00:34we stayed above freezing in southern Minnesota, at least in the Twin Cities. We do have some high

00:38clouds filtering out that sun a little bit today, making for hazy conditions, but the sun's still

00:43there, of course, and temperatures warming up today, up slightly above normal. But we are watching this

00:48developing, deepening low pressure out in the western Dakotas. This is going to be the focus

00:53for our weather tomorrow, creating some showers and thunderstorms by the late afternoon and evening

00:58hours, some of which could be strong. Just enough instability potentially tomorrow. Near 60 today,

01:04though, close to 70 in southwestern Minnesota, and cooler along the north shore in the 40s here the

01:09next couple of days, thanks to southeast winds. It is going to get breezy again later today. Southeast

01:14winds 10 to 20 miles an hour, and then tomorrow breezy too, and as that low pressure, that swirl there

01:19moves towards us, that'll be the focus for storms later in the day as things heat up to upper 60s

01:25tomorrow in the Twin Cities, low to maybe middle 70s in southwestern Minnesota. So definitely warm

01:30enough tomorrow. Dew points could be higher for more widespread severe weather, and really,

01:36we're on the northern edge of this potential for severe weather. Iowa and into the southernmost

01:40counties of Minnesota in that slight risk for tomorrow into tomorrow night, level two out of

01:45five. Twin Cities in that marginal risk. So there is going to be just enough instability,

01:49though. This is CAPE, convective available potential energy by late afternoon tomorrow.

01:52enough instability, though it's going to be kind of conditional. If we can get enough sunshine,

01:58peaks of sun to warm things up enough to overcome some minor capping here early in the day. Supercell

02:05index, not particularly impressive, but enough for maybe a couple of strong storms. And at least the

02:11high-resolution rapid refresh model right now kind of paints the track of some stronger updrafts

02:16tomorrow right over the Twin Cities. So this probably will be further south, but this particular model,

02:21a little further north into the Twin Cities for late tomorrow afternoon and evening. And I've outlined

02:26here one, again, particular model. Don't pay attention to where, but coming up with several

02:31potential borderline severe wind gusts. So a couple storms tomorrow could produce some large hail

02:36and maybe some gusty winds. So spotty showers possible through the day, but really late afternoon

02:42and evening is when we'll see storms erupt here in southern Minnesota. And again, this model,

02:46the high-resolution rapid refresh model, a little bit further north with some storms than some of

02:51the other models. But basically anywhere from the Twin Cities and points south could see some of those

02:55stronger storms late tomorrow. As far as precip goes, with thunderstorms, it tends to be spotty. So

03:01this is kind of a broad-brushed average, but potential is there for a half-inch or more of rainfall.

03:07And in some of those thunderstorms, maybe some locally higher amounts of one-inch rainfall amounts

03:11late tomorrow. Then the cold front swings through Friday. Temperatures will be cooler Friday, Saturday,

03:16Sunday, mostly in the 50s, which is close to or slightly below normal. But we could be dealing with

03:21more rain developing late Sunday into Monday. This is the European model. Other models continue to keep

03:26this system further south and southeast. So there's a high degree of uncertainty still with the Sunday

03:31night and Tuesday night Wednesday systems. But there are going to be a couple additional storm systems

03:36around to watch next week. So potential for a little bit of an active pattern if that track

03:41continues over our region. 61 today, though. Pretty nice. Above normal by just a few degrees.

03:48Some late-day storms tomorrow. Warmer and then cooler behind that with some lingering showers

03:53Fridays. The cold front swings through. Should be pretty bright Saturday. And I think most of Sunday

03:57should be a fair amount of sun, too. We'll see the potential for those showers mostly Sunday night

04:02into Monday. And then that, again, additional potential chance here late Tuesday into Wednesday.

04:11We'll see you next time.

04:22See you soon.

04:23Bye.

04:24Bye.

04:25Bye.

04:26Bye.

04:28Bye.

04:29Bye.

04:30Bye.

04:31Bye-bye.

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