Where will the heaviest rain totals wind up in Minnesota and Wisconsin?

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00:00Well, we have a hot one for southern Minnesota, much cooler to the north, and that frontal boundary

00:03is producing showers and storms today with a severe threat, but more importantly, a heavy

00:07rainfall potential, followed by cooler air tomorrow.

00:20So we've got a heat advisory for the Twin Cities metro area, a flood watch here for eastern

00:25Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin, and also parts of the Duluth area in the North

00:30Shore, potential for some very heavy rainfall tonight into tomorrow, and so we'll have to

00:35watch those rainfall totals, but also the air quality continues to be pretty bad across

00:39northern Minnesota here on and off.

00:41Detroit Lakes, Friday afternoon, had one of the highest air quality records in state history

00:47here, or the poorest air quality, one of them, since they've kept track of those records since

00:512013.

00:51Now today, this morning rather, the air quality wasn't so bad across the state, but just to

00:56the north of the border, we do have some poor air quality, and we're expecting that smoky

01:01air to move back in across northern Minnesota, so that's why the Minnesota Pollution Control

01:04Agency extended that air quality alert for northern Minnesota through 11 p.m. today, so

01:09it's not bad this morning, but we'll get worse again as we head into the midday and afternoon.

01:15Big temperature divide too, we talked about this yesterday, quite the frontier, low to mid-90s

01:18across southern Minnesota, 60s and 70s only to the north.

01:23Dew points, very muggy too for central in southern Minnesota, 60s to low 70s dew points, and that

01:28will factor into this frontal boundary's rainfall production and our discomfort this afternoon.

01:33Heat index, mid to upper 90s, maybe near 100 at times.

01:38I don't think the dew points will be so bad in the afternoon, so that 100 heat index might

01:42be just out of reach, but it's going to be hot either way.

01:45So I put streamlines on here, this is the flow of air, and then of course you can see the

01:49satellite and radar, and very obvious to see that frontier cutting across north central

01:54Minnesota, and that front is slowly moving south in the focus for storms.

01:57So here's 5 p.m., this is the high resolution rapid refresh model, I'm showing you two model

02:01scenarios because they're slightly different, and then those storms kind of sag south slowly

02:05tonight into tomorrow, we're going to continue to have showers.

02:07The showers will be lighter tomorrow though, but on and off rain, clouds tomorrow, we're going

02:11to keep temperatures pretty cool.

02:13Now this is the RFS model, a little more vigorous, still though central Minnesota, has it coming

02:18to the Twin Cities a little earlier though, maybe the 9 p.m. to midnight time frame, and

02:23then waves of showers kind of on and off tomorrow, but the rain tomorrow will be lighter than what

02:26we see late today and tonight, but yeah, it's going to make kind of a gloomy Wednesday, a

02:32little odd for mid-July to have a cloudy and rainy day where we barely hit 70 degrees, but

02:36there is a slight severe risk cutting across central Minnesota right along that front, level

02:42two out of five, the Twin Cities kind of on the edge of that, I think the severe threat

02:45for us is probably a little lower, but also a slight risk of excessive rainfall, we're

02:50watching that potential for heavy rainfall amounts today into tonight and tomorrow.

02:56Now when we look at a model average, pretty widespread one to three inches, Twin Cities, north

03:01and to east central Minnesota along the North Shore, northwestern Wisconsin, but when we dig

03:05deeper into some of the higher resolution models, and again, don't pay attention to exactly where,

03:10that's going to be kind of a question of where those storms develop, but pay attention to

03:13the amounts, the HRR model spitting out some three, four, five inch rainfall amounts, the

03:18RRFS too, four, five, maybe some six inch rainfall amounts, so that's why there's that flood

03:22watch, where that happens, still a little bit of a question, probably somewhere east central

03:27Minnesota and in northwestern Wisconsin, but there's that potential for some pretty heavy rainfall.

03:31And look at these temperatures tomorrow, 60s and 70s only for highs, probably just barely

03:3770 in the Twin Cities, very humid today and still muggy tomorrow because of the showers

03:42and clouds around, but won't make much of a difference to the cooler temperatures, but

03:46look at that dry air coming on Thursday, the sun breaks out, looks like pretty early, by

03:50Thursday afternoon dew points may only be around 50, 40s in northern Minnesota, that's

03:54some fall-like air, it makes it feel cooler.

03:57Next system comes in Friday night, that'll bring some generally lighter showers and still looks

04:01like it's gonna be mostly out of here for Saturday, might have an isolated shower, northeastern

04:05Minnesota, western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, Saturday afternoon, but for the

04:08most part, looking like a decent weekend shaping up.

04:1192 today, most of the day for the Twin Cities, dry, but as we head into the evening and overnight,

04:15that's when we'll see that chance of storms increase, again, they develop in central Minnesota,

04:19and then we'll slowly move south and east as that front kind of pushes them along, scattered

04:23showers, cloudy, look at that high, barely 71 degrees.

04:27Sunshine is back Thursday, again, big drop in humidity though, so that's 74, we'll feel

04:31much cooler.

04:32Friday looks decent for the first half of the day, clouds will increase, we'll see that

04:36chance of showers Friday night with that next disturbance, but Saturday, Sunday, close

04:40to 80, not bad, I think sunshine for the afternoon Saturday, most of Sunday, and warming up to

04:47normal temperatures again with more sun on Monday.

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