Oppressive Fourth of July heat with storm chances through Saturday in Minnesota

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00:00Well, it is getting steamy out there today. Temperatures will be once again near 90 degrees,

00:04even hotter and more humid Friday, and we are tracking storms Friday night into Saturday over

00:08the holiday weekend. So we have this developing low to our west. It's already generating some

00:23clouds and storms across the Dakotas and Montana, and a cool front is going to be swinging in with

00:28it to bring relief to the heat and humidity by Sunday. But the next few days, pretty steamy.

00:33Dew points were well into the 60s and 70s across central and southern Minnesota this morning

00:37and probably won't drop much here midday. Yesterday, we saw those dew points plummet because that

00:42moisture was pretty shallow in the atmosphere. And as we heat things up and mix it up, that moisture

00:48kind of spreads out through the atmosphere. But you can see the difference this morning versus

00:52yesterday. Yesterday, that moisture was shallow. It's this line here. Today, that line much closer

00:58to the temperatures and a deeper level of moisture. So dew points will drop slightly,

01:04but that shows you that that humidity is really kind of building here across southern Minnesota.

01:08So heat index into the 90s this afternoon, close to 100 in the western part of the state where we do

01:13have a heat advisory already today for L'Aquiparro and Yellow Medicine counties, and then the rest of

01:17us for tomorrow afternoon. So we are going to look for some isolated thundershowers again today,

01:21like we saw yesterday, very isolated, hit and miss. And anything that does develop could produce

01:26some large hail. And then some storms overnight tonight into northern Minnesota, ahead of that

01:31warm front, ahead of the surge of moisture and heat. So northern Minnesota primarily the chance

01:36overnight tonight. So kind of two separate risks today. Twin cities, southeastern Minnesota, western

01:41Wisconsin, marginal risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening. And then overnight for

01:45northern Minnesota into the Dakotas where we have that better risk, slight risk of severe storms

01:50into North Dakota and the far northwest corner of the state. But tomorrow is going to be hot and

01:55humid during the day. Plenty of sun, great day to be in water into the 90s across most of the state,

02:01in fact, and that heat index. Yeah, those will be in the 90s really everywhere except for the North

02:05Shore. It'll be the one place to cool off. But the storms that we are tracking for tomorrow night

02:10and Saturday, not looking to generate a lot of severe weather, which is good news. Marginal risk only level

02:16one out of five pretty much statewide. So some very isolated severe storms. But because of the timing

02:21and the lack of shear, there's not going to be a lot of organization to these storms. So you want to

02:26see larger areas of red, basically. This is forecast shear and we just don't really have it with this

02:32system. So that's what organizes storms and makes them severe versus garden variety. There will be

02:38plenty of juice though. CAPE, that instability measurement, basically the combination of temperature and

02:44dew point high during the day. But we're not going to see the storms really pop during the day. And

02:47then once they come in in the overnight, that energy, of course, diminishes as things cool off.

02:52And another way to measure the organizational potential for storms is the supercell index,

02:56which takes into account instability and shear. And it's just very minimal tomorrow night into

03:02Saturday. So again, we're not really looking at much in the way of severe weather, but there will

03:06be showers and thunderstorms around Friday night. And the good news is the timing is slowing down. So

03:10fireworks for many of us will be okay, except northwestern Minnesota. So here's 10 p.m.,

03:16one model scenario, keeps storms well to the west. And then moving in by maybe 4 a.m. Saturday,

03:22so you might be woken up to some showers and thunderstorms. And then Saturday does look

03:25unsettled. Not a washout all day, but there are going to be scattered showers and storms around.

03:30Some peaks of sun though, too. It's still going to be pretty steamy. So here's another model scenario,

03:34a little more advanced, 10 p.m. tomorrow evening, though still to the west. So Twin Cities,

03:38eastern Minnesota, probably okay for fireworks. But then during the day Saturday, yeah, just kind

03:42of a lot of showers and thunderstorms around, a mix of clouds and sun, unsettled. So if you are

03:47going to be by water, pay attention to the weather because you will have probably some storms to

03:51dodge. And rainfall, not particularly heavy for those of us who've gotten nailed the last few times,

03:57central and southern Minnesota, probably a half inch to an inch of rain on average. But of course,

04:01thunderstorms can produce some isolated heavier amounts. Looks like it will be heavier in northern

04:05Minnesota where they need it. That's the only area in the latest drought monitor to watch here.

04:10We have drought, stubborn pocket of drought here in north central Minnesota. But now, for the first

04:14time in a while, severe drought creeping into Roseau and Lake of the Woods County. So very dry up there

04:20and hopefully they can get some rain here out of these next couple of days. So near 90 this afternoon,

04:24but it will feel more like, oh, 93 to 95 degrees. Isolated thunderstorm again possible late in the day.

04:31Tomorrow, dry during the day for the Twin Cities. 93 for the high, but dew points in the 70s means it

04:37will feel like it's well into the 90s, if not close to 100. Saturday will be cooler just because

04:42there'll be more clouds around, some occasional showers and storms. I know it's not ideal right in

04:46the middle of the holiday weekend, but Sunday looks gorgeous. The humidity drops. Monday, lots of

04:51sunshine too. Next chance of maybe some spotty showers comes in on Tuesday, but that actually

04:56is looking like a diminishing chance of rain. So we generally get into a more settled pattern

05:01after Saturday. Yeah, go figure. After the holiday weekend next week.

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