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  • 6 weeks ago
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00:00Well, humidity is increasing today and that's already leading to some showers and thunderstorms
00:04across parts of the state. Those chances will increase and we have some potential for heavy
00:08rainfall over the weekend. So we have an ongoing disturbance creating massive clouds and some
00:23showers here across portions of central and southern Minnesota. The unsettled weather already
00:28moving in. So some spotty showers, a couple of thunderstorms today, especially later in the
00:33afternoon with some of this sunshine here. It's a little pocket of cool air aloft and some of these
00:37spotty showers do hold together and maybe even more popping up here as we head into the midday and
00:42afternoon hour. So unsettled, but pretty hit and miss with this activity today. And then as we head
00:48into tonight, we're going to see more organized activity to the northwest, but dew points are on
00:52the increase already, especially to the west. We'll see dew points near 70 by the end of the day and by
00:56tomorrow, low 70s dew points across much of central and southern Minnesota into the weekend.
01:01And that moisture is a key component to the stage here that's going to be set with this next
01:06disturbance here. We've got a couple of upper level disturbances, but also this frontal boundary. It's
01:11going to advance across the Dakotas today and then it's going to stall out across central Minnesota here
01:16over the weekend, which is not good. That means it's going to be the focus for ongoing thunderstorm
01:19development. So tracking the surface winds here, you can see that front moving across North Dakota.
01:24It's going to create storms in eastern North Dakota, northwestern Minnesota tonight, but then
01:28it stalls out here across central Minnesota late tomorrow into Saturday and Sunday. And that's
01:34going to be kind of the bullseye we're watching for heavy rainfall somewhere in this area. Too
01:39difficult to pinpoint where just yet the models are all over the place, but storms tonight will be
01:44in northwestern Minnesota, spotty activity further south, potential for some severe weather in
01:49northwestern Minnesota too here. So Fargo, more hit areas up to Grand Forks all the way to
01:53International Falls. Slight risk, a level two out of five for some severe storms. Looks like just a
01:58couple of isolated cells that could produce some high wind gusts, maybe some large hail. And then
02:02during the day tomorrow, steamy, isolated thunder chances, but southern Minnesota, we should see some
02:06sun highs will be close to 90. It will feel like it's in the mid nineties though, with those dew points
02:11near 70 degrees. So steamy during the day. And then tomorrow night, we have an excessive rainfall risk
02:17across central, east central Minnesota, into western Wisconsin, including the Twin Cities.
02:22So slight risk. This is the area we're going to be watching for potential thunderstorms that will
02:25produce some heavy rainfall. So this is Friday night into early Saturday, waves of storms developing
02:30along that stalled front. And then Saturday night, similar scenarios setting up. And then also late
02:35Sunday, late Monday. So central Minnesota into western Wisconsin, we're going to have to watch again to
02:40see how much does that boundary move back and forth and where that rainfall sets up. This is the
02:46European model as an example, showed you this yesterday. It is still spitting out three to four
02:50plus inches of rain in central, east central Minnesota into western Wisconsin, lining up almost
02:55perfectly with that excessive rainfall risk area. We've got that Friday and Saturday night. So that's
03:01what we're going to be watching. These are going to mainly be overnight, early morning thunderstorm
03:04chances. And then during the days, isolated to spotty activity. So no all day rains, but some heavy rainfall
03:12during the late nights and early mornings, certainly potential here. 82 today, some of those spotty
03:17showers out there. And then tomorrow, steamy 89. It will feel like the mid nineties though. And again,
03:23a couple of isolated storms during the day, but the main event is tomorrow night into early Saturday
03:27with some heavy rainfall. Steamy again during the day Saturday, more storms Saturday night in central
03:33Minnesota. And again, a kind of a repeat into early next week, all told adding up to potentially
03:38several inches of rainfall here across portions of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
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