Extreme fire conditions continue; relief with storms Wednesday into Thursday

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00:00Well, we have another day of critical fire weather in especially northern and western Minnesota.

00:04A couple more hot days, too, before a big shift in the pattern.

00:07We've got rain and below-normal temperatures ahead.

00:19So pretty incredible images on satellite yesterday.

00:22We could see those fires in northeastern Minnesota erupting.

00:24Three separate fires north of Duluth, burning thousands of acres so far,

00:29and just a tinderbox up there.

00:30It's not quite greened up there yet.

00:33And also a lot of dead spruce trees due to some invasive worms,

00:37thanks to climate change, a lot of bad things going on

00:40with this unusually abrupt heatway we've been seeing.

00:44So another red flag warning for most of northern and western Minnesota.

00:46But eastern Minnesota, we have seen some improvement.

00:49Dew points have actually increased.

00:50So just by adding more moisture, you're going to increase the relative humidity.

00:54Dew point, again, remember, is the direct measurement of water content in the air,

00:58whereas relative humidity is relative to the temperature.

01:00So in the afternoon it goes down, but when there's less water content

01:04and we've got a lot of heat, it really goes down.

01:06So we had single digits in teens for relative humidity percentages the last couple of afternoons.

01:11Today won't be quite as bad, but still pretty bad.

01:14And at times we've been seeing some really bad air quality due to the wildfire smoke.

01:19Ely yesterday getting into the unhealthy for everybody category.

01:22So air quality alert ongoing for northeastern Minnesota due to the smoke from those fires

01:28may very well get extended today because those fires are not contained yet.

01:32And then for the rest of us, it's once again ozone, which is a chemical reaction

01:36with pollutants trapped in the lower atmosphere.

01:39The sun and the heat react with that and the ozone builds through the day.

01:42So afternoon, evening, the worst for the ozone.

01:46Back in the upper 80s today, 90s again in western Minnesota.

01:48Florida, anywhere from 20 to 30 degrees above normal once again today.

01:53And tomorrow we've got one more day of this before things start to finally shift

01:57towards cooler and wetter conditions, which we really need rain at this point.

02:02Back in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, more low 90s off to the west.

02:06But that's going to be the last of that kind of heat yet.

02:09The ridge moves off to the east.

02:11This big upper level trough we've been talking about is going to become kind of a series of

02:15cutoff upper level lows, which means cool, cloudy conditions and occasionally rainy.

02:20And that's okay.

02:21We really need it.

02:22So already Wednesday night into Thursday, the first volley of moisture.

02:25And then because these are these slow moving cutoff upper lows, it means we'll see showers

02:29kind of spin around.

02:30And yes, that's snow maybe in northwestern Minnesota Saturday.

02:33Halle could go from 100 degrees Sunday to snow Saturday.

02:38And we are going to be watching for some severe weather.

02:40Now tomorrow it looks to be in South Dakota, but leftover storms could move across parts

02:44of southwestern Minnesota.

02:45And then Thursday, that risk is mainly to our east, marginal risk.

02:49It's just all about the timing.

02:50That peak heating of the day is going to be more in South Dakota tomorrow and then Wisconsin

02:54by Thursday.

02:56But here's the line of storms we're going to be watching.

02:58These could produce some severe wind gusts.

03:00And then maybe if they hold together, the high resolution rapid refresh model thinks they

03:04could.

03:05And so it's producing some severe wind gusts across the southwestern counties of the state

03:09here early, early Thursday morning.

03:11So we'll be watching that possibility, but showers and at least garden variety thunderstorms

03:16definitely looking likely here on Thursday.

03:18Still looking like the western and northwestern part of the state seeing the heaviest precip,

03:23one to two inches of rainfall potentially.

03:26And then further east and southeast, lesser amounts.

03:29And yes, there is that possibility of snow.

03:32Models have been going back and forth, but now the European model is starting to produce

03:35a little bit of snowfall.

03:36This is probably on the high end and it's just one model run, but all of the models have

03:40been flirting with that idea.

03:42It's going to be cold enough, especially late Saturday in northwestern Minnesota.

03:45Look at these temperature anomalies Saturday.

03:47Below normal for a change.

03:49Low to mid 60s here in southern Minnesota, 50s and 40s to the north.

03:52So it's definitely going to feel a lot chillier here come this weekend.

03:56But again, the clouds, the cooler temperatures, and of course the rain all helping to reduce that

04:01fire risk at least until things can green up up north.

04:04But the last few days we've been way above normal and look how we flipped the script.

04:08This weekend and next week, much below normal temperatures potentially with the warmer than

04:13normal conditions staying in the south and southeast.

04:16So a little bit of a correction on our May temperatures, which right now are running way

04:20above normal.

04:21So that week or so of cooler temperatures will help cut into that anomaly.

04:2689 today, hot, not humid though.

04:29Dew points have increased a little though and they will increase into the 50s this afternoon.

04:33Tomorrow and Thursday, we could see dew points pushing 60, which is good because, well, A,

04:38it will increase the relative humidity, but also increases the chances of showers and

04:42thunderstorms.

04:43Of course, you need water content to do that and that's been the missing component for much

04:47of May so far.

04:48So pretty good bed of scattered showers and storms.

04:51Thursday, Friday, some lingering showers.

04:53Even Saturday could have a lingering shower too and that's going to keep things cooler.

04:56Hopefully, you've enjoyed the sunny skies because Thursday through Monday looks like we're going

05:02to have at least a 50-50 mix of clouds and sun, if not more cloud cover than sunshine.

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