00:00Well, we got another day with lots of sun today, but some isolated storms could pop up later this afternoon, evening, same kind of thing tomorrow.
00:05But the big question is storms on the 4th of July, trying to time those out and cooler, drier air behind it.
00:21So pretty nice day today, again, for the second day of July.
00:24Yesterday, we topped out at 86, the above average for the 1st of July.
00:29We're going to see temperatures probably similar or even a degree or two warmer.
00:31Some ongoing clouds and some showers across northern Minnesota.
00:34We talked about this yesterday.
00:36A disturbance kind of clipping us to the north, also to the southwest.
00:40Temperatures well into the 80s, pretty much across the state today.
00:43But dew points also increasing a bit.
00:45Yesterday, they were mostly in the upper 50s.
00:47Today, low to mid 60s for dew points and then closer to 70 degree dew points tomorrow into the 70s, probably Friday, Saturday.
00:54So that means humid air and combined with temperatures, it'll be closer to 90.
00:57We're going to be talking heat indices here Friday.
01:00So a hot, steamy 4th of July, but also that chance of storms.
01:04And behind that cool front, dew points will drop.
01:07Sunday, Monday, we'll see dew points in the more comfortable 50s.
01:09So most of the showers to the north kind of fizzle out.
01:11But we are going to see, again, these isolated storms pop up.
01:14Don't pay attention to the specific location.
01:16That could really happen anywhere.
01:17We're just showing you one particular model because of the very isolated, spotty nature.
01:23But where they do develop marginal risk, level one out of five, that somewhere central and southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, one or two storms could produce some large hail.
01:32So a very small, severe risk, but it is there potentially.
01:36Tomorrow, upper 80s for highs for all but really the north shore of Lake Superior.
01:40So it's going to get pretty warm, even closer to 90 in southwestern Minnesota.
01:44And I think much of the state could be near 90 on Friday, all the way up to the international border, in fact.
01:50And when you factor in that humidity, it will feel like it's well into the 90s.
01:53So even if we are just shy of 90 degrees, it will feel like the mid-90s Friday afternoon.
01:58So pretty steamy conditions.
02:00But then, of course, the big question is what happens with the storms that we are looking at for the weekend?
02:05Also, a marginal risk late Friday of severe weather.
02:08Pretty low, though, just one out of five.
02:10And the reason for that is because the dynamics you need to organize storms to make them severe versus a garden variety, that's going to be off to the west.
02:17It looks like the biggest and best shear with this complex is going to be behind the cool front.
02:23And you generally want that at or ahead of the front in order to organize those storms in the warm, humid sector.
02:28So frontal boundary, at least on the European model, is kind of cutting into northwestern Minnesota by late Friday.
02:33But again, that shear is behind the front.
02:36So that's why we may just see regular thunderstorms producing potentially some heavy rainfall, potentially some thunder early in the morning Friday ahead of that front,
02:44skirting northern Minnesota.
02:45And then late in the afternoon, storms will develop ahead of the front in northwestern Minnesota and then kind of track east-southeast slowly in a broken line.
02:52This front is going to move really slow.
02:54So that means a lingering shower and thunderstorm chance probably on Saturday.
02:57But the models differ on the timing.
02:59European models faster.
03:00This is 9 p.m. Friday, coming through just before or during fireworks time.
03:06But other models are slower and produce the rainfall after that period.
03:10So still a question mark on the specific timing.
03:13There's the heat blasting in.
03:15And behind it, cooler, drier, more comfortable air for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday of next week.
03:19And that will generally settle down the atmosphere, too, giving us some dry days.
03:23So still a little question mark on the timing.
03:25But it is going to be late in the day of Friday regardless for most of us, except for northwestern Minnesota.
03:30So hot, sunny, steamy during the day Friday.
03:33Same thing tomorrow as well.
03:36But then late afternoon, those storms develop in northwestern Minnesota.
03:39And then at some point, late evening or overnight, we'll see those storms roll through the rest of the area Friday night.
03:44But then Saturday, some peaks of sun, still warm and muggy.
03:47And that lingering, slow-moving front will probably spawn more storms in the late afternoon evening hours, finally clearing us Saturday night.
03:54So that means dropping two points Sunday.
03:56Pretty comfortable, 81.
03:58May not even hit 80 on Monday, in fact.
04:00And then the next chance of thunder, that moves in here probably Tuesday.
