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TheMeyersReport_06_27_2025_Fast_15
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00:00So next week, what happens? We get the ADP numbers for June, and then at the end of the week,
00:06we get the Labor Department numbers, both on full-time jobs and on private payrolls.
00:17Good morning. Welcome to the Myers Report, Fast 15. It is Friday, June 27th, 2025.
00:25On November 13th, our group forecast a massive fraud audit in the SBA, that there was massive fraud to the tune of billions and billions and billions.
00:39It seems that, as of yesterday, the U.S. government is going to be doing an audit of key SBA people going back to 2010.
00:50That's 15 years. They are taking this very seriously because it was bad.
00:56This includes everything from bribery to you name it, it's there.
00:59Our next forecast, which we will be adding in today, is that we feel that there is an 80% chance that Xi, who has been running Communist China, will be out of office by the end of the year.
01:17And the best months we think that he might resign would be August or September, but 80% chance we shall see.
01:26And a lot is going to depend. He may possibly get saved by a tariff deal with President Trump, which seems to be in the wind, but it still may not be enough.
01:40Again, 80% chance Xi is gone.
01:43Okay, getting back to the analysis of what has gone on, and this has been a hell of a week, what's gone on in the Middle East.
01:51We apparently have a ceasefire, and maybe even a peace deal with Iran, but there's an interesting take on it.
02:02The ceasefire broke down pretty quickly, but I think that in part was also planned, or anticipated, at least if not planned, expected.
02:11It was not unreasonable that one of the Iranians, that somebody wouldn't get the message and they'd shoot something off when they shouldn't.
02:21That's pretty much normal. The word doesn't go out so quickly.
02:25There were two issues I know that with our own group, is that whether or not the ceasefire came too soon, and that the military of Iran needed to be further degraded.
02:35So when Iran sent off one missile and Israel had that very strong retaliation, I think there were two things going on.
02:44Number one, it further degraded the Iranian military.
02:48Number two, it gave Iran a very strong message as to what to expect should the ceasefire be broken again.
02:56This was along with President Trump's making it very clear that if Iran broke the ceasefire again, it would be severe.
03:05Now, there's another interesting concept that no one really has been talking about.
03:10If you recall, when President Reagan had to deal with the aircraft controller strike, he dealt with it swiftly and fired them all when he first came into office.
03:21And what people kind of missed, particularly the aircraft controllers union, was that this wasn't just about a strike with a domestic union.
03:30This was about giving a warning to the Soviet Union as to what we would or would not do.
03:37And Trump's attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities was a very clear message to China and Russia and other bad actors that don't push him too far, or he will, in fact, really act.
03:54Moving on, Don Day, you got it right about the heat wave in the U.S.
03:59Now, when's it going to stop?
04:00Well, we're already going to start to see it cooling off a bit this weekend.
04:04So this heat wave, there'll be more as the summer progresses, but this heat wave is going to ease.
04:10Is this because of climate change or because it's summer?
04:13It's because it's summer.
04:15You sure?
04:16Yes.
04:17Historically, summers have known to be hot in the northern hemisphere in June and July and August.
04:23So, yes.
04:25Okay.
04:26You were also right about the weather conditions being good for a strike on Iran.
04:30What comes next over there?
04:32Yeah, the Mideast is in its typical pattern this time of year, which really means nothing.
04:37There's very little weather going on, and that will continue.
04:41Okay.
04:41And let's not forget the Russia-Ukraine war.
04:43How's the weather over there?
04:45Well, the weather over there is pretty good.
04:46In terms of nothing that's been too bad to make it too rainy or wet to cause any significant, let's say, muddy conditions for ground troops, although they will start to see more wet weather.
04:59But that's not until another week or two.
05:02Otherwise, over in that war theater, the weather is not much of a factor.
05:07But it could be in the next week or two.
05:10A little bit later on into July, yes.
05:12Wonderful that we're having this discussion.
05:15In China, Xi is under enormous pressure.
05:18Is there anything in terms of the weather that's going to help or hinder him there?
05:23Well, we had talked in previous videos about concern about some of the key ag areas of China having a droughty summer, and it's starting that way.
05:32The key growing areas of the east are still dry and will likely remain that way.
05:37So, that's something that we have to watch.
05:39It's early in the ballgame, you know, patterns can change, but the China crop yields may be down this year.
05:47In which case, they're going to need more food and more money to buy it.
05:51Yes.
05:52And they need to buy it from somebody.
05:55Okay.
05:55Isaac, Trump's executive order took place or took effect on June 25th.
06:03How do you see this impact?
06:04First off, explain what the order was, and then how is this impacting freight and logistics?
06:09So, the order was the English proficiency test for CDL holders across the nation.
06:14Now, mind you, this has been something that's been on the books for quite some time, but the states have not enforced it.
06:21We actually ran across this back in 2014 for the first time where one of our truck drivers got shut down in Idaho.
06:29And from that moment, we made sure that every driver we onboarded spoke English fluently.
06:36So, yeah, so a lot of carriers, this is going to be a game changer, Gary and team.
06:41This is set, they're expected to, this is expected to drain about 10% of capacity throughout the entire nation.
06:50Now, larger carriers have been pushing for regulatory, you know, mandates that really, they really control the capacity inside our industry.
07:00The last time that something like this, that happened, like this, even similar to this, that bled a lot of capacity was the ELD mandate in 2017, the electric logbook device mandate in 2017, which bled a lot of carriers, midsize and small carriers that were used to running the roads on paper logbooks and essentially cheating the system, running way too many miles, way too many hours and putting the American public in danger.
07:26Now, that was short lived. We had a 2018 that was, that was freight rates were surging because of that bleat them capacity.
07:362019, everything kind of equaled out. A lot of people were able to adapt to the electric logbooks, but this is going to be significantly different.
07:45This will not only bleed a tremendous amount of capacity, but this is going to be a deterrent for a lot of truck drivers to join our industry.
07:52So for carriers that are already, you know, ahead of the curve and have English speaking truck drivers, we're, a lot of carriers are really excited about this change and it will make the, our, our roads a whole lot safer.
08:08Higher prices for trade, for shipping?
08:12Well, I'll say this. So, so higher, higher prices, yes, in an already depressed market.
08:19So for us, we'd like to get back to normal. I'll put it that way, Bob.
08:25We'd like to, you know, make a couple of points at the end of the year.
08:28So right now, right now that's not happening for a lot of trucking companies.
08:32Isaac, we're now just two weeks away from the end of the 90 day tariff pause.
08:36What is your outlook on what happens next?
08:38So the industry is preparing for an early peak season that pause that went into effect.
08:44We've yet to see that surge hit our shores just yet.
08:48We're probably a couple of weeks away.
08:49I'd say about a week or two after the fourth, we'll see, we'll see those imports start hitting the coastlines.
08:55And then it'll be about another week, week and a half for them to start hitting the railheads in the Midwest, Chicago, for example.
09:03It really depends.
09:04You know, it's going to carry us into the end of the year.
09:08That's for certain, right?
09:09Into the Christmas season here.
09:11What I think is going to happen, you know, given what the administration has already done and proven to, you know, be tough on the negotiation, but also be willing to essentially negotiate with other countries.
09:25I think that Trump's going to get this solved by the time we are anticipating our next slowdown, quarter one of 2026.
09:34I think if he does get this solved, which I think he truly will, we're in for a really strong 2026.
09:41I see this being a really, really good thing for the industry.
09:46Okay.
09:46What are you hearing about truckers and current conditions in the industry?
09:49We're starving.
09:51Starving.
09:51Yeah, the boots on the ground.
09:52I was talking to a lot of truckers that use our shop here, other companies that are 100% import, export, freight.
10:00A couple of guys just yesterday, they're saying, hey, you know, what do you think happens next, Isaac?
10:04I go, listen, I think if you can hold on, right, till mid-July when these imports start hitting our shores, right, we're going to get this surge.
10:13And I just, you know, I told them pretty much the same thing I'm telling you guys.
10:16This is going to take us into Christmas season, right?
10:18Just hang on a little bit longer, make it through the storm, right?
10:22I believe those who can make it through the upcoming months and make it to 2026 are in for a nice, bright, colorful rainbow at the end of this.
10:33Okay.
10:34Dr. Bob Janetsky.
10:37Yes.
10:39Were investors spooked or encouraged by last week's weekend's attack on Iran?
10:46Oh, my gosh.
10:46And based on the performance of the stock market, people are really happy about it.
10:52The stocks in general were up about 3% in a week.
10:56That's a really good week for a stock market.
11:00And the indexes are back up to their all-time highs.
11:03And there was more good news this morning when Trump announced that he had signed a deal with China.
11:09So that trade deal is already signed, according to Trump.
11:13You never know.
11:14This can go back and forth.
11:15Well, the issue is, somebody could say, like Trump, he could say something that's true today, and things can happen that make it untrue tomorrow.
11:27Right.
11:27Somebody can undo it.
11:28How does your stock market model look for future stock prices?
11:35At the moment, it looks good again.
11:37It's been good for the past two months.
11:39It's been telling us that this is a good time to buy because the momentum has shifted in a positive direction.
11:46And the latest readings are very high.
11:50The latest readings are 100% on a daily basis, 96% on a five-day basis.
11:58So the momentum is still in the market.
12:00So if you're in the market, there's no short-term reason here to sell, other than the fact that we're at these long-term highs.
12:10Last time we hit this level, stocks went down.
12:13And my model will not tell you when there's a turning point.
12:16It will only tell you when momentum has shifted enough that we should be concerned.
12:22And at the moment, that momentum still has not shifted enough.
12:27So it's almost time for our next round of forecasts.
12:31Oil has fallen by $10 a barrel in the past not even 10 days.
12:37The attack on Iran did nothing, at least in terms of hurting or spooking the oil market.
12:44What are the indicators saying and what do we have coming up for next week?
12:50Well, next week is interesting because we get more job numbers, employment numbers.
12:56And these numbers last time were absolutely all over the place.
13:01They told us absolutely nothing.
13:03The Labor Department, in the worst number, showed a decline of 629,000 full-time jobs in the month of May.
13:13I mean, incredible.
13:14The same Labor Department also told us that 140,000 private jobs were added in the month.
13:24So try and reconcile those.
13:26In the same month?
13:29In the same month, yes.
13:30Same Labor Department.
13:31ADP, which is an independent payroll company that has enormous payrolls and basically a good part of the whole labor force.
13:43So these are actual payrolls.
13:46They had an increase of 39,000 jobs, which was a very, very small increase relative to recent months.
13:53So you add it all up.
13:55And what you're coming up with is just a mixture of different numbers on jobs, which to me is kind of totally worthless when they're all pointing in different directions.
14:04So next week, what happens, we get the ADP numbers for June, and then at the end of the week, we get the Labor Department numbers, both on full-time jobs and on private payrolls.
14:16And I'll be looking very closely at those to see if we can kind of make some sense out of what in May was, to me, nonsensical reports.
14:25And our usual optimism-pessimism question, Don Day, are you optimistic or pessimistic about what's coming ahead?
14:37Boy, after this past week of lots of different emotions going on with the crazy world we live in, things are settling down, and I'm feeling still very good, still optimistic.
14:47Isaac, how are you feeling?
14:49And I'll tell you, 10 years ago, when my driver got shut down in Idaho for not being able to identify road signs, I wasn't happy.
14:57But today, knowing that all of our drivers know how to speak English and know how to identify road signs, knowing what's coming, I'm very optimistic, yes.
15:07I, too, but Bob, how are you feeling?
15:10Oh, my gosh.
15:11The future.
15:11You know, and we didn't talk about the long-term interest rates.
15:15They've been edging down, not sharply, but just steadily downward, which is the best way I like to see them.
15:23And that's another sign that financial markets are stabilizing, and they're not really upset or concerned at the moment.
15:31And I hope that continues.
15:32I believe it will.
15:34Okay.
15:35I am personally very optimistic about everything going on, which is always, I guess, a dangerous thing, but things just look good.
15:43With that, guys, be well, have a safe weekend, stay safe, and God bless America.
16:13We must be well, have a nice day.
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