00:00Ryan, I want to start off by asking, where did the Biden administration leave the state
00:05of U.S.-Asia-Pacific alliances?
00:09I think overall, the Biden administration's approach to allies and partners was strong.
00:14The relationships the United States nurtured with its allies improved during the period
00:20of Joe Biden's administration, and there were several new innovations.
00:25He really emphasized mini-lateral or quadrilateral groupings of countries to pool capabilities,
00:32both to accelerate innovation to pre-position capabilities, and also to push back in areas
00:37of concern in the region.
00:39So these groupings converged over the past four years to build sort of a denser network
00:44of partnership relationships in the region to try to shrink the space basically for China
00:50to be able to throw its weight around in the region.
00:52With President Donald Trump now in the White House, what are the biggest challenges his
00:56administration will face in terms of Asia-Pacific partnerships?
01:00Well, I think the biggest challenge that he'll face is that President Biden and members of
01:05his administration invested a lot of time and energy into nurturing and building these
01:10alliance relationships and partnerships throughout the region.
01:14And so sort of matching the level and tempo of engagement that the Biden administration
01:18set will be a challenge.
01:21The second challenge that President Trump will face is just a fundamental question,
01:25a philosophical question almost.
01:28To what extent does he view alliance relationships as additive to American power, and to what
01:33extent does he view them as a drain on American power and resources?
01:37And then the final question that I think he will face is a question of whether or not
01:40to deal with these alliance relationships in a comprehensive or holistic fashion, looking
01:45at the broader region and how the United States can maximize its leverage and its influence
01:49in the region, or whether he will prefer to deal with these relationships on a one-on-one
01:53bilateral basis.
01:55And that approach will change as there is a change in the landscape in the Asia-Pacific
02:00region for matters such as climate change, economic and defense challenges arise.
02:06So how might the Trump administration approach this new landscape with its partners?
02:14Bilateral institutions will not serve as much of a meeting place or a place of convergence
02:19for the United States and its partners to work together.
02:22The United States under President Trump is withdrawing from many of these agreements
02:26and understandings, whether it's the Paris Climate Accords, the World Health Organization,
02:29or others.
02:31And so that will sort of shrink the space available for coordination amongst allies
02:36and partners.
02:38Another is just on a thematic level, what will be the priorities of this incoming administration?
02:42As your question alluded to, I think the climate defined as climate issues will probably
02:47receive lesser prominence in the hierarchy of priorities that the Trump administration
02:51has than was the case during the Biden administration.
02:54And I think that conversely, trade issues will receive more prominence under the Trump
02:59administration than was the case during the Biden administration.
03:02And so I think that Washington is shifting a bit in terms of its overall priorities.
03:07And I think the region in Washington will have sort of an awkward dance for a period
03:12of time as these shifts take place.
03:15Although we are not even a month into the new Trump administration, what sort of items
03:19have we seen his cabinet set with regards to the Asia-Pacific region?
03:25There's one thing that is catching a lot of attention in international media, which is
03:30the notion or concern that President Trump and the Trump administration are withdrawing
03:33or pulling back from alliances.
03:36And I think that there's plenty of cause for concern, and it's something that we should
03:40pay careful attention to and monitor closely.
03:43But I think that the media narrative may be front-running the reality a little bit.
03:48Because if you look at where President Trump is allocating his time, his second overseas
03:53meeting, a meeting with an overseas leader, was with the prime minister of Japan, who
03:59he hosted at the White House last Friday.
04:01The Secretary of State has been active, including meeting with the leaders of his counterparts
04:06from the quad countries.
04:07So that's United States, Australia, India, and Japan on his first day in first hours
04:13in office to signal his prioritization.
04:16And the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, has also been meeting with counterparts and
04:20speaking with them from the region, including allies like the Philippines and Australia.
04:24So there is a basis to have concern and to watch this issue.
04:28But I don't think that thus far, the actions of the Trump administration would suggest
04:32the level of concern that the international media has decided to apply to this issue.
04:39So in the instance that the U.S. slightly or more broadly withdraws from partnerships
04:46in the Asia-Pacific region, are there countries right now, such as Japan, Taiwan, or South
04:51Korea, that are prepared to step up and take a position of leadership?
04:55Well, I think one thing that many of the countries in Asia share is that none of them want to
05:01be dominated by China.
05:03And up until now, the United States has been a real strong, steady bulwark against China
05:09establishing a sphere of influence in its periphery.
05:13If the United States were to play a lesser role, I expect that other countries would
05:18lean forward, not out of altruism, but out of self-interest to pool capabilities to come
05:24together to try to reduce the risk that China could establish domination or a sphere of
05:30influence along its periphery.
05:32So to your question, I think the answer is yes.
05:34I do expect that that we will see activism on the part of countries in the region.
05:41But I'm not concerned that the United States is going to withdraw and cede a sphere of
05:46influence to Asia. I think that the United States' long-term national interest demands that
05:50it maintain a active presence and influence in the region, because after all, Asia is the
05:56epicenter of innovation and it's going to be the engine of the global economy in the 21st
06:00century. And so if the United States wants to remain a global power, which I believe it
06:04does, it needs to maintain a presence in this dynamic part of the world.
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