00:00Now, earlier this month, the Trump administration launched a review of the AUKUS, Defence Pact,
00:05with Australia and UK to ensure it aligns with its America First agenda.
00:11What might this review signal for countries in the region?
00:14Dr Pong Fisud, Paul Busbarat, Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies in Thailand, weighs in.
00:22The review of the AUKUS would, you know, have implications to Southeast Asia in general, right?
00:30I mean, like, as a middle power, we don't want to choose sides.
00:33That's probably one of the collective foreign policy gestures of ASEAN member states, right?
00:39Different way of the hedging and everything.
00:43So, the review of AUKUS, whether or not it's going to be more intense or, you know, it's going to be weakened,
00:49we have to be seen, right?
00:53But then it's going to, at least, you know, when the U.S. pay more attention to these regions.
01:03It's like, you know, small state, you want to keep distance.
01:07But when that distance, you know, is kind of narrowed down, so you have to be cautious, right?
01:15Like, for Thailand and Malaysia, as Thailand, for example, we, you know, security aligned with the United States.
01:22So, we are looking at the review of AUKUS quite cautiously, you know, whether or not it's going to impact to our security in general.
01:31Because now, like, we have a lot of challenging in, especially in mainland Southeast Asia, Myanmar issue.
01:37And whether or not the review of AUKUS is going to have the impact on how we resolve this problem, or even, you know, Thai-Kambodaya conflict, right?
01:45So, that's probably one of the interesting, you know, things to keep an eye on.
01:53As the region continues to be shaped by big power rivalries, is minilateralism the most viable path forward?
02:00Or does ASEAN-centred diplomacy still hold ground?
02:03It has its own benefit, right?
02:06I mean, like, minilateral arrangements could speak for certain countries with the same interests.
02:14For example, like, we have a lot of minilateral arrangements in the Mekong subregions.
02:19Of course, the maritime countries in Southeast Asia would not have that much interest and, you know, stake in the Mekong subregions.
02:28So, that kind of thing, right?
02:30So, we can see a lot of multi-layer of the dialogue partner evolving Mekong subregion countries.
02:39So, that kind of minilateralism is kind of beneficial to the development of the Mekong subregion.
02:45So, in that sense, it's beneficial.
02:49But if you look at some of the minilateral arrangements that has a security focus or evolving, you know, or has some implications on security, for example, if you join BRICS.
03:02And at the current moment, I kind of doubt if that would be a good way for ASEAN countries.
03:09Certainly, you know, decades ago when BRICS, you know, began, right?
03:15We wanted joy or we kind of like, you know, somehow it's a way for developing countries to increase their voice in the international system.
03:24But currently, with the, you know, rivalry between China, United States, Russia, United States, joining a BRICS could have the implications on security issues, right?
03:36I mean, like, if you, Malaysia, Thailand, well, we pledged to join the BRICS.
03:40Of course, our leader, you know, used economic justifications for joining BRICS or pledged the interest to join.
03:48Of course, that has some benefit.
03:51But then, implications, you know, insecurity issues also come out.
03:56Whether or not joining a BRICS, you have to agree at a certain point with Russia and China.
04:02And that would be sort of detrimental to our foreign policy, you know, abilities when, you know, the United States, China, and Russia, you know, entangle in the future.
04:14And then if we join BRICS, what does it mean if China and Russia want to address or give a remark against, you know, the United States or the West?
04:23And do we have to sign that kind of agreement or declarations or statement or whatever?
04:29So, in that sense, you know, joining a BRICS could have that kind of implications that we are taking side or not.
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