What might the Trump administration’s review of the AUKUS defence pact mean for Southeast Asia? Dr Pongphisoot Busbarat, Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies in Thailand, weighs in.
00:00Now, earlier this month, the Trump administration launched a review of the AUKUS, Defence Pact,
00:05with Australia and UK to ensure it aligns with its America First agenda.
00:11What might this review signal for countries in the region?
00:14Dr Pong Fisud, Paul Busbarat, Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies in Thailand, weighs in.
00:22The review of the AUKUS would, you know, have implications to Southeast Asia in general, right?
00:30I mean, like, as a middle power, we don't want to choose sides.
00:33That's probably one of the collective foreign policy gestures of ASEAN member states, right?
00:39Different way of the hedging and everything.
00:43So, the review of AUKUS, whether or not it's going to be more intense or, you know, it's going to be weakened,
00:49we have to be seen, right?
00:53But then it's going to, at least, you know, when the U.S. pay more attention to these regions.
01:03It's like, you know, small state, you want to keep distance.
01:07But when that distance, you know, is kind of narrowed down, so you have to be cautious, right?
01:15Like, for Thailand and Malaysia, as Thailand, for example, we, you know, security aligned with the United States.
01:22So, we are looking at the review of AUKUS quite cautiously, you know, whether or not it's going to impact to our security in general.
01:31Because now, like, we have a lot of challenging in, especially in mainland Southeast Asia, Myanmar issue.
01:37And whether or not the review of AUKUS is going to have the impact on how we resolve this problem, or even, you know, Thai-Kambodaya conflict, right?
01:45So, that's probably one of the interesting, you know, things to keep an eye on.
01:53As the region continues to be shaped by big power rivalries, is minilateralism the most viable path forward?
02:00Or does ASEAN-centred diplomacy still hold ground?
02:03It has its own benefit, right?
02:06I mean, like, minilateral arrangements could speak for certain countries with the same interests.
02:14For example, like, we have a lot of minilateral arrangements in the Mekong subregions.
02:19Of course, the maritime countries in Southeast Asia would not have that much interest and, you know, stake in the Mekong subregions.
02:28So, that kind of thing, right?
02:30So, we can see a lot of multi-layer of the dialogue partner evolving Mekong subregion countries.
02:39So, that kind of minilateralism is kind of beneficial to the development of the Mekong subregion.
02:45So, in that sense, it's beneficial.
02:49But if you look at some of the minilateral arrangements that has a security focus or evolving, you know, or has some implications on security, for example, if you join BRICS.
03:02And at the current moment, I kind of doubt if that would be a good way for ASEAN countries.
03:09Certainly, you know, decades ago when BRICS, you know, began, right?
03:15We wanted joy or we kind of like, you know, somehow it's a way for developing countries to increase their voice in the international system.
03:24But currently, with the, you know, rivalry between China, United States, Russia, United States, joining a BRICS could have the implications on security issues, right?
03:36I mean, like, if you, Malaysia, Thailand, well, we pledged to join the BRICS.
03:40Of course, our leader, you know, used economic justifications for joining BRICS or pledged the interest to join.
03:48Of course, that has some benefit.
03:51But then, implications, you know, insecurity issues also come out.
03:56Whether or not joining a BRICS, you have to agree at a certain point with Russia and China.
04:02And that would be sort of detrimental to our foreign policy, you know, abilities when, you know, the United States, China, and Russia, you know, entangle in the future.
04:14And then if we join BRICS, what does it mean if China and Russia want to address or give a remark against, you know, the United States or the West?
04:23And do we have to sign that kind of agreement or declarations or statement or whatever?
04:29So, in that sense, you know, joining a BRICS could have that kind of implications that we are taking side or not.
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