00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office week ahead forecast. It's often at this time of
00:04year that we see what has been termed a return of the westerlies, in other words, a return
00:09of more of an Atlantic influence on the UK's weather, a pick up in the strength of the
00:13jet stream following a lull in activity that we often see during the spring and the first
00:19part of June. Generally at this time of year, temperature contrasts across the normal hemisphere
00:25begin to increase again and that tends to fuel a stronger jet stream.
00:29I'm going to be talking about the jet stream a fair bit over the next few days. Indeed
00:33it is the westerly winds that have swept away the heat that peaked on Saturday in Surrey,
00:3933 Celsius, widely low 30s across many southern and eastern parts of the country, culminating
00:45in quite extensive thunderstorms, frequent lightning and hail across parts of northern England and
00:51southern Scotland. Nevertheless, cooler air now in place as we start the week and we
00:55keep that cooler air for Monday night. But as we begin Tuesday, a sign of something a little
01:02more humid returning with this warm front moving into western parts of the country by dawn, bringing
01:08extensive cloud cover and outbreaks of persistent rain across parts of Scotland, northern England,
01:14Wales, the southwest and northern Ireland. The rain during the morning tend to fizzle. It's always
01:19going to be wettest over western hills, drier towards the south and east and brightening up
01:24slowly into the afternoon. Some sunshine reappearing through south and east Wales, the middle and east
01:29Anglia and the south. Some brightness there for northern Scotland as well, albeit with some showers.
01:34Feeling cool in the north, but warmer and more humid to the south. And the dividing line between the
01:40more humid air to the south, the cooler, more changeable weather to the north. It's this cold front and
01:45really that sets the scene for the rest of the week. We're going to see this north-south contrast,
01:49staying cool and changeable in the north, often more humid towards the south with some sunshine at
01:54times. And this dividing line will ebb and flow north-south across the country because that's where
02:01the jet stream will be sitting. On Wednesday we start the day with some sunshine in the far southeast
02:06and across parts of Scotland and northern England, but a few showers here and there. More extensive cloud
02:11through Wales and the Midlands. Some outbreaks of rain during the morning, easing into the afternoon.
02:16And look at the temperature contrast. Again, high teens, low 20s in the north, but 27, 28 Celsius
02:21towards the southeast and feeling very humid once again. And that high humidity could lead to the
02:27development of some thunderstorms across northern France drifting towards southeast England. The exact
02:31track of these thunderstorms on Wednesday evening, early hours of Thursday, open to doubt at the
02:37moment. There's every chance that they will hit the southeast of England and bring some impacts, but if they just
02:45go in slightly more of an east direction, then they'll miss southeast England entirely. So that's something
02:50we're going to be keeping a track of over the next couple of days and we'll keep you updated. Elsewhere across the
02:55UK, we've got some weather fronts moving through overnight, bringing some showery rain and more of a brisk
03:01west of the airflow by the start of Thursday. But those outbreaks of rain and the early showers move
03:08through. It brightens up nicely by late morning and into the afternoon. Some sunny spells and it's going to
03:14feel a little cooler once again. Certainly we'll notice an uptick in the winds and could affect some of the
03:21setup for Glastonbury. But otherwise it's going to be a cooler day with temperatures back to the low to mid
03:2820s. Now, on the other side of the Atlantic, meanwhile, over North America, this is Tuesday, we've got this
03:34developing jet stream really picking up strength across North America and subtle differences in how this develops
03:41during Tuesday and Wednesday will impact our weather for the rest of the week. But it looks likely that an unseasonably
03:47strong jet stream will develop across the North Atlantic and head towards the UK for the end of the week. And that's going to
03:53bring that strengthening of the wind that I mentioned on Thursday and into Friday. We keep those keen
03:59breezes from the west. It's also going to bring outbreaks of rain predominantly as we start off Friday
04:05across Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest England and parts of Wales, drier to the south on the
04:12other side of the jet stream. And throughout the day on Friday, I suspect that there will be some brightness
04:17to be had across eastern and southern parts of the UK. But it looks likely that we're going to see
04:24what's going to be quite cool, I suspect, where we get those outbreaks of rain across Western Scotland
04:30and northwest England, high teens, low 20s, towards the south and southeast, feeling quite humid once again,
04:3724, 25 Celsius drying up there across the southwest for Glastonbury, Worthy Farm. And warming up as we go into the
04:47weekend across many southern parts of the UK at least, we've got this ridge of high pressure trying to nudge in
04:53from the south, pushing the jet stream further north for a time, and in fact, allowing the jet stream to take more of a
04:59southwesterly path, and that would import higher humidities and higher temperatures into southern areas whilst it stays
05:06cool and changeable further north. So that's how things are looking into the weekend. There's every possibility that that
05:12high pressure will become more widespread later in the weekend and early next week to bring perhaps another
05:19short-lived hot spell, particularly towards the southeast. But it probably won't last long because
05:26the jet stream always wanting to return to the UK's shores, and that looks more likely than not for the rest of
05:32next week. We'll keep you updated, of course, right here at the Met Office. Follow those updates on YouTube. Bye-bye.
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