Week Ahead 10/11/2025 – Very mild south, turning colder north - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 10/11/2025. Significant temperature contrasts are likely later this week as it stays exceptionally mild in the south whilst it turns colder in the north. Bringing you this week’s weather f

Transcript

00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead.

00:03A week of significant temperature contrasts from the exceptionally mild south to the north

00:09where it's going to turn colder eventually, but actually we start off mild across all parts

00:15with low pressure again coming at us from the southwest and this moist and mild airflow

00:21bringing weather fronts in from the Atlantic and some wet weather from the word go across

00:26western parts of the UK. Those bands of rain pushing through northern England into southern

00:30and central Scotland and Northern Ireland by the afternoon. Drier for a time across much

00:35of England and Wales before another spell of wet weather pushes back into Wales in the

00:39southwest. Mostly dry for East Anglia and the southeast, even if it is going to be largely

00:45cloudy. Clear spells in the far north of Scotland. A little bit fresher here, 10 degrees, one

00:50or two showers, but that's the place where we'll see the brightest skies. The rain in

00:55the west is going to mount up. We're going to see the wettest weather over the hills of

00:58South Wales, southwest England, southwest Scotland. 60 millimetres in some places, perhaps

01:03up to 80 over the hills of South Wales and southwest England. Could cause some issues, rain

01:09warnings in force. All that accompanied by a strong wind, 50 mile per hour gusts or more

01:13for some exposed southwestern coasts. But it's a mild wind, 15 Celsius in the south and that

01:19mild air stays with us in the south at least throughout much of this week. Those temperatures

01:25not dropping very far by night either, staying in the teens in places because we've got this

01:31southwest air flow just carrying on throughout the next few days whilst it starts to change

01:37in terms of the wind direction further north. High pressure builds in across Greenland and

01:42Iceland and that's going to push these fronts through and eventually bring colder air. But

01:50for Wednesday itself, we've got two weather fronts lying across the UK. One stalled across

01:55the north of Scotland and one lingering across the southeast and in fact pushing further rain

02:01back in by the end of the day across many southern parts. So a gap in between, some decent sunny

02:05spells for Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland, Northern England, North Wales but either side

02:09of that some wet weather. Heavy rain continuing across the north of Scotland, Orkney but clearing

02:15across Shetland later on and then it turns colder in the far north. Meanwhile this band

02:19of rain continues across the southern third of the UK. Again heavy and persistent over

02:25western and southwestern hills especially Dartmoor. Now that's going to push through but by this

02:31stage with high pressure building over Iceland we're going to see the winds change significantly

02:35across the north of Scotland and you can see the temperature contrast. Sutherlies in the south

02:39bringing exceptionally mild air both by day and by night whilst in the north a significant

02:44drop in temperatures through Thursday and lasting into the weekend. And that contrast well that's

02:51causing a weather front in the middle to bring some heavy rain. A little bit of uncertainty

02:57increasingly so during Thursday and Friday about the placement of that boundary and the heaviest rain

03:02but as you can see it's going to mostly affect Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland,

03:06the central swathe of Northern England, the Midlands and Wales. Drier to the south but very mild

03:1116-17 Celsius. To the north it is turning colder across northern Scotland. Some of these showers

03:17will be falling as sleet and snow over the tops of the mountains hail at lower levels and feeling

03:23cold in the wind even if the skies are a lot brighter compared with further south. Now those

03:28outbreaks of rain across the middle well they'll shift position later this week but the boundary

03:33is uncertain between the cold air in the north and the very mild air to the south. And to illustrate

03:39this here's the temperature trend for Southampton not just from one computer model simulation but from

03:4451 the European model ensemble. Now as you can see where these model simulations are bunched together

03:53it is a darker shading where they are spread out a lot more uncertainty in terms of the temperature

03:59and it's difficult to say for sure what the temperature will be. But we can from this graph

04:05deduce a few things. Firstly, this week is very mild. From Tuesday afternoon through to Friday

04:12the temperatures barely dip below 14 Celsius both by day and by night in the south of England.

04:18Then most of the models do drop things off into the weekend. You can see this shading here but not

04:25all the models, about a third of them also keep things mild. So there's the uncertainty. Most likely

04:31turning colder into the weekend back to mid to high single figures by and large but not necessarily

04:38certain for that because there are some models that keep it mild. More on why that's happening

04:43in a moment. Inverness shows a very different temperature trend. Yes, it starts off relatively

04:49mild but not as mild as Southampton. Then we've got this temperature drop and much more confidence

04:55about the temperature drop occurring during Thursday and this extreme contrast between

05:00north and south of the UK for Thursday and Friday and greater confidence that it's going

05:07to stay cold in Inverness in the north of Scotland through the weekend and into the start of next

05:12week. So big temperature contrasts by Friday and in between that mild air to the south and the colder

05:20air further north we do have the band of rain. Like I say some uncertainty about its placement

05:25at this stage but it looks likely that Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England will be cold

05:29albeit bright with some wintry showers over the hills of northern Scotland but otherwise plenty

05:35of sunny spells so cold and crisp after a frosty start. Further south 15, 16 Celsius possibly even higher

05:42if that front's a little further north. It could be 17 or 18 Celsius in the south on Friday. That's what I mean

05:48by these significant temperature contrasts and as we go into the weekend what looks most likely is

05:54that the high pressure to the north will elbow its way further south and lead to colder but brighter

06:02weather across most parts. However, there is that question mark over the far south and southwest.

06:08It may well stay cloudy, damp and much milder here depending on the placement of this low and this high.

06:16So the weekend for many looks brighter, overnight frosts but sunny spells by day and plenty of dry weather

06:23but also colder in the south. Especially the far south and southwest it may well stay mild and damp.

06:32That's the source of uncertainty at the moment but of course we'll keep you updated

06:36on how that develops over the next few days. Bye-bye.

Week Ahead 10/11/2025 – Very mild south, turning colder north

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