00:00Well, unfortunately, at the moment, it doesn't look very likely.
00:07We have to put this in perspective.
00:11This is all happening because Israel launched a unilateral attack on Iran in the middle
00:19of negotiation between Iran and the United States over Iran's nuclear program.
00:28That was more than a week ago.
00:30And then only two days ago, less than two days ago, there was a meeting in Geneva between
00:38Iran and three European powers to find some kind of a resolution, a diplomatic solution
00:44to this conflict.
00:47And the European powers seem to send positive signals to Washington that there is a scope,
00:54there is possibility of an end to the conflict.
00:59So it's really hard to understand why President Trump has conducted this attack on Iran and
01:08why he is threatening more attacks on more targets in Iran.
01:12And the only justification one could think of is that he has simply accepted Netanyahu's
01:20rationale that Iran is an existential threat to Israel and to the United States.
01:27And the only way to deal with it is through force and effectively to bring about regime
01:33change in Iran.
01:34And what do you make of President Trump's speech that we just heard in the last half
01:40hour?
01:41It's only four minutes or so, but there was a fair bit of information in there with respect
01:44to the strength of the relationship between Israel and the United States.
01:50What are your observations of that?
01:51And where do you see other alliances perhaps potentially forming as a result?
01:56Well, there's no secret, it's not a secret that the United States is a close ally of Israel,
02:06that the United States is committed to Israel, but this goes far beyond a simple alliance.
02:15President Trump has effectively given up setting the agenda to Bibi Netanyahu in relation to
02:22Iran and in fact in relation to Gaza as well.
02:26So what is going on right now is that Netanyahu in Israel is setting a US foreign policy towards
02:35the Middle East.
02:36And Trump is simply following that.
02:38It's very much going according to Netanyahu's playbook of attacking Iran, undermining Iran and
02:47ultimately bringing about regime change because what is the expected outcome for President Trump?
02:59He cannot in any serious belief that Iran would simply surrender to US attacks.
03:08He must understand, he must know, I'm sure his advisors would have told him that Iran would
03:14retaliate.
03:15So where is this leading?
03:17That's the big question.
03:18Yeah, Professor, what do you think about that?
03:20We had former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on a short time ago saying that President
03:25Trump was not interested in regime change.
03:29What reaction can we expect from Iran considering its military has been weakened and its alliances
03:35in the region have too?
03:37Well, President Trump may not have used the term regime change, but Bibi Netanyahu has.
03:46And everything that Trump has done, just simply following Netanyahu's lead, suggests that regime
03:52change is the intended outcome of this conflict.
03:56So this is a fanciful agenda.
04:00I can't imagine how the Iranian population are expected to rise up and depose the regime
04:07under fire.
04:08Sure, the Iranian regime is unpopular.
04:11Sure, there is a big gap between the elite, between the ruling clergy and the population.
04:18But how do you expect the Iranian population to listen to foreign, you know, foreign attackers'
04:26advice and change their own government?
04:28In fact, what we're going to see, and it's very likely to happen, is that the regime will
04:35feel even more safe and secure in its position.
04:38This is the best gift that the United States could have given the clerical regime in Iran.
04:45If that's the case, and the regime feels safer and more secure in its position as a result
04:52of this, would that then suggest that their reaction is probably going to be stronger and
04:59perhaps not weakened?
04:59I mean, we've heard from the United Nations Secretary General, Antoni Guterres, on Saturday
05:05branding the strikes on Iran.
05:07According to The Guardian, there's a dangerous escalation in the region already on the edge
05:11and a direct threat to international peace and security.
05:15Just what is at risk here in the region, and then if not international peace?
05:19Yes.
05:20Very good question, Catherine.
05:22You know, Iran had already indicated that if it's attacked by the United States, it will
05:30see the U.S. as a legitimate target and it can hit U.S. assets in the region.
05:37So what Iran can do right now, and has threatened to do, is to target U.S. assets in the Middle
05:46East.
05:47There are troops, there are infrastructure that Iran can target, but even more importantly,
05:54there are many Iranian-aligned groups in the region.
06:00You have various Shia militia in Iraq, you have the Houthis, who are in a position and
06:06can hit U.S. assets in the region.
06:09And they don't have to wait for an order from Tehran to do so.
06:13So that's the course we are going to see, I think we are likely to see.
06:19President Trump has really put U.S. policy on a very slippery slope.
06:26And any attack on U.S., of course, is going to lead to more retaliation.
06:32So this is a very vicious cycle of violence that we are going to see.
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