00:00Simon Maben lectures in international relations and the Middle East at Lancaster University.
00:06Iran says the US has crossed a big red line. How do you expect Iran to respond to these US attacks?
00:14Well, the short answer is we just don't know. We don't know how Iran will respond. We don't know
00:20what type of response it will pick. We don't know which types of targets it will pick.
00:25We don't know if it will respond towards the US directly or if it will go against some of the US
00:31allies in the region. We don't know if it will limit its attacks to Israel and try and outmaneuver the
00:37US in this regard and playing a bit of geopolitical chess, if you will, with Washington. Or if it
00:44will just escalate with direct attacks on US forces, US bases, etc, etc. Or perhaps it will be just a
00:52broader global disruption by closing the Straits of Hormuz and then relying on its allies such as
00:57the Houthis, for example, to close the Bab al-Mandeb and really disrupt global trade, the flow of oil,
01:05gas. It would be, yeah, it's really difficult to ascertain exactly what it will do. And part of this
01:12is contingent on the strategic reserves that Iran has left after these 20 waves have hit Israel.
01:18And also the sort of the will of the Islamic Republic to continue to fight against Israel
01:26and indeed now the United States.
01:29Is Iran's supreme leader still a target?
01:33Well, we know that Donald Trump said that he wasn't a target as yet. But I think in saying that,
01:40that suggested that he was indeed a bit of a target. And there was a thinly veiled threat
01:46that he was a target there. And given what Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying about regime change not
01:52being a direct, a direct strategic goal of this latest set of operations, we don't know for sure
02:02if the Israelis would go after Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader. But there's no doubt that if he was
02:07killed in a targeted airstrike, there would be serious repercussions. And that would be the latest in a long
02:14line of flagrant breaches of international law by all the different parties involved in this conflict.
02:20So it's a really precarious and really worrying situation for a whole host of reasons.
02:26What about for Iran? How key is the current supreme leader to the regime keeping itself intact?
02:34Well, he's been in power for a number of decades now. He is the figurehead, if you will. He's the symbolic head.
02:45He's the strategic and the ideological, spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic. So he plays a really key role.
02:53But we shouldn't just reduce the Islamic Republic of Iran to one figure.
02:58If Ali Khamenei did die or indeed was killed in a targeted assassination, that would not lead to the fall
03:05of the Islamic Republic just on its own. Indeed, we know that in the past couple of days, he's listed
03:11three names. We don't know those names as yet. And put those forward to the Assembly of Experts to
03:17choose his successor in the event of his death. So there's obviously a clear planning process in place
03:24right now. So, yeah, he matters. Of course he matters. But it's the figure that matters, perhaps
03:30more than the man, if you will. And what about when it comes to international diplomacy? Iran's
03:35foreign minister plans to meet Russia's President Vladimir Putin Monday for talks.
03:40What do you think could come out of that?
03:45Yeah, it's a really difficult one because we've heard lots of different rumours coming around.
03:49We know that Iran and Russia have got a long, complex relationship. Not all good,
03:54which must stress Russia invaded the Iranian sovereignty, breached the Iranian sovereignty
03:59during the Second World War, along with others. So there's a complex history there. But in recent
04:03years, Russia has provided a degree of support to Iran. But we know that Russia hasn't provided the
04:10types of things that Iran might perhaps have wanted. We don't know if Russia is going to provide the
04:16type of support that it gave to Iran's key ally, Bashar al-Assad, a decade ago, which ultimately
04:22ensured his survival, at least for a few more years. So whether this is just about diplomatic cover,
04:29whether this is about economic support, or whether this is about strategic or indeed military
04:34support, we just don't know. And that's part of the issue with global diplomacy right now. There's a lot
04:40of different moving parts, lots of different agendas. We know that Iran has sent tech and drones to Russia
04:46to use in Ukraine. So there's a lot of different moving parts. And it is a very worrying time right
04:52now.
04:53How might these US attacks on Iran influence regional dynamics then? Do you foresee increased
05:01instability in the region?
05:02Well, I think a lot of that depends on what Iran does next. And going back to my first answer, we
05:09just don't know what Iran is going to do next. We know that there are lots of different possible
05:13scenarios. But the route and the path that it chooses could take it in lots of different directions.
05:20So I think what is really important here is, is that we, we don't try and predict what's going to
05:27happen. But we know that there are lots of different possibilities, given the number of US bases in the
05:31region, given the US military presence in the region, in Bahrain, in Qatar, in Saudi Arabia, etc.
05:38We know that there are lots of viable targets. But that is contingent on whether Iran wants to pursue
05:44that line of strategy. And we just don't know.
05:48Middle East expert Simon Mabon from Lancaster University. Thank you very much for your time.
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