If Iran truly wanted nuclear weapons they would have pursued them already, analyst says

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00:00Let's get some analysis of what this means in terms of the continuation of a long-distance war

00:05and the type of ammunition needed to do just that.

00:08Rosemary Kalanich joins us.

00:10She's director of the Middle East Programme at Defence Priorities, a think tank.

00:15Thank you, Rosemary, for being with us here in France 24.

00:17We appreciate your time.

00:18Give us your assessment of where we are at right now in this war between Israel and Iran.

00:26Thank you so much for having me, first of all.

00:28Well, we're at a very perilous and dangerous point in this war.

00:33And, of course, as you mentioned already, there are a lot of questions in the United States

00:37as to whether the United States might be joining the war with Israel against Iran or not.

00:44And, you know, that remains to be seen.

00:46The president seems to be signaling today that he's giving himself a longer runway

00:50than most people in Washington expected.

00:53I think many of us have been bracing over the past few days for an announcement sort of imminently

00:58and now it looks like he's putting off the decision or at least reserving the right to do so,

01:03which does seem to be, in my view, a good idea.

01:06Is he perhaps hoping that in some way, shape or form, this war will work itself out in between time

01:14without the U.S. getting involved in that sense?

01:19Not so much, I think, that the war will work itself out.

01:21But I think that Trump is still hopeful to work out a deal with Iran

01:25to come to an agreement on limiting their nuclear program,

01:29eliminating any chance that Iran could get a nuclear weapon in the future.

01:34You know, when this attack first happened, I initially thought that the prospects for a deal were very low.

01:40But right now, Iran is really in a bind.

01:43They're under a lot of pressure.

01:44They're under a lot of stress.

01:45They're not able to compete with Israel militarily.

01:50And so it still could be the case that if Iran—I'm sorry, if President Trump is deft in his diplomacy

01:56and if Wyckoff is deft in his diplomacy, that they could potentially convince the Iranians to make a deal.

02:04And at the same time, the bigger challenge, I think, is restraining the Israelis if Iran does make a deal.

02:10I think Trump is still very much looking for that option instead of getting involved in a kinetic offensive capacity.

02:18Indeed, this conflict has been a long time brewing.

02:21We could say since 1979, perhaps when the Islamic regime was set up, the Shah was overthrown.

02:26And clearly, between then, there's been this real enmity between the United States and Iran, of course,

02:32put Israel in the middle of that on the side of the U.S.

02:34It becomes a bollock against the Iranian interests.

02:37The rest, of course, is history.

02:39In terms of the firepower, Ruiz, I'd be interested to get your take on that situation

02:44because clearly we know about Iran's long-distance missiles.

02:48Equally, we know about the backing that Israel has had year on year on year from the United States

02:53in terms of beefing up its military.

02:55And that has been enhanced even more during its conflict in Gaza.

03:00Where do we stand there?

03:01I mean, clearly, we're not at egality.

03:03Which side has the advantage, in your view?

03:05By far, Israel has the advantage.

03:09I mean, Israel is a nuclear weapons state.

03:12Israel has a nuclear deterrent.

03:14That's going to put a limit, presumably, on the amount of retaliation that Iran is willing to risk against Israel.

03:21The same is true of the United States.

03:22The United States also has a massive nuclear deterrent and a conventional deterrent.

03:26That, I think, is one reason that Iran has been restrained so far

03:30and has not attacked American targets in the region.

03:34But I do think that that could change if the United States enters the war.

03:39Militarily, it's not clear whether Israel can destroy all of the nuclear sites on its own,

03:46including the site at Fordow.

03:47There's a huge controversy about that.

03:50Some analyses have suggested that maybe they'd be able to do it.

03:53Others say not so much.

03:55That's really where Israel seems to be looking to the United States to get an assist.

04:00But it's not clear that the United States can entirely do it.

04:03But then there's also the bigger problem, which is even if you destroy Fordow,

04:09and even if you destroy many of the sites,

04:11the Iranian government has been enriching uranium for 20 years.

04:14They know how to do it.

04:15And you're only setting back the program.

04:17You're not necessarily destroying it in any sort of final capacity.

04:21And, of course, if the United States gets involved,

04:24there are possibilities for retaliation against the United States troops in the region,

04:28which could lead to an escalation of the conflict.

04:31Any time that American troops are hurt or killed abroad,

04:35there's a lot of pressure in Washington for the U.S. to get more and more involved.

04:40Rosemary, I was at a briefing last night with Iran's ambassador at the embassy here in Paris,

04:44a special briefing for journalists that was invited along.

04:46On that issue of enrichment, we asked that question, you know, why?

04:51Why? How can you justify it? What is it about?

04:54And he said that it's not about weapons. It's about better producing electricity.

04:58Would you think that is a plausible thing to say?

05:01Or would you think that basically it is not quite the truth?

05:03I think the truth is somewhere in between.

05:08I think the truth is that Iran, if they, Iran has enriched uranium up to highly enriched uranium levels,

05:16up to 60 percent maximum, at least, that we know of.

05:19And there are not civilian uses for that uranium.

05:22However, they have done that for years now, and they've not progressed from 60 percent to 90 percent.

05:2790 percent is the sort of critical threshold where uranium can actually become usable in a nuclear device.

05:34So to me, I see this as signaling, very high stakes and potentially reckless signaling by Iran to say,

05:41look, you know, we're using our nuclear enrichment program as a bargaining tool.

05:46We want sanctions lifted on Iran, right?

05:49They have all kinds of asks in that in that way.

05:52They want to be reintegrated in the international community, et cetera, et cetera.

05:56And so, you know, I think it's understandable that they would want enrichment.

06:01I think that it's a high stakes gamble for them to enrich beyond civilian capacity.

06:06But I think the key feature here is that Iran could have enriched to 90 percent a long time ago, and they have not.

06:13They've not done that.

06:14So I think that they're trying to signal that they're willing to make a deal.

06:17I think if Iran truly wanted nuclear weapons, they would have pursued them already, and they have not done that.

06:24So I see a lot of, you know, high stakes maneuvering.

06:27It's not just about civilian energy.

06:29Clearly, that's not just it.

06:30But it doesn't mean that they're bent on getting a nuclear weapon.

06:34And in fact, I think that they would rather not have one, at least not till now.

06:38And hopefully that remains the case.

06:40Rosemary, thank you very much indeed for your analysis.

06:42It's much appreciated.

06:43Rosemary Kalanich, Director of the Middle East Programme at Defence Priorities Think Tank.

06:48Thanks for joining us here, France 24.

06:50We appreciate your time.

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