00:00Welcome to your 10-day trend from the Met Office,
00:0310 days that takes us to the end of November.
00:06November, so far, has seen a repeating weather cycle,
00:10which means it's been very wet for some
00:12and pretty dry for others.
00:15We're only going to see a slow change to that
00:17over the next five days.
00:19Gradually, very gradually, it should
00:21be turning a little bit milder as we go into the second half
00:23of the weekend.
00:25After what's been quite a dry week,
00:27it will also be turning wetter, particularly
00:29across parts of the south and the west.
00:32Let's take a look at the bigger picture.
00:34High pressure is kind of influencing our weather,
00:37even though it's a few thousand miles away across Siberia.
00:41These lows are edging in, and I do mean edging in.
00:45And as they're combining, they're
00:47squeezing the isobars together, which
00:48is why we've got a cold southeasterly wind blowing
00:51for the next couple of days.
00:53But these weather fronts are only
00:54making painfully slow progress, hardly edging in at all
00:57by Thursday.
00:58What we need is a bit of a kick, a bit of oomph,
01:01and this low pressure will provide that.
01:04It's being driven by the jet stream,
01:05and it looks like taking a spell of very windy weather
01:08into parts of Spain, Portugal, and France,
01:11along with some heavy rain.
01:12There is a bit of uncertainty about the exact track
01:14of that low, and it does have the potential
01:17to bring some heavy rain across parts of the south,
01:19especially so on Saturday.
01:21As it edges in, though, things get mixed up,
01:24and notice the isobars aren't as close together.
01:26So those cold winds will slowly be easing
01:30as we go into the weekend.
01:31But there is the potential for that rain, especially
01:34across the south, that could be quite heavy.
01:36Compared to the start of the week, it won't be as frosty,
01:39but with lighter winds, there will still
01:41be some pockets of frost at this time of year
01:43where we have clear skies.
01:45Now, let's take a look at the bigger picture,
01:47but high up in the atmosphere, and take
01:49a view of the jet stream, quite a lively looking jet stream
01:53driving down to the southwest of the UK.
01:55That's what's taking that low pressure into France and Spain.
01:58And this is the kind of pattern that we've
02:00seen quite frequently through November,
02:02allowing low pressure systems to affect especially
02:05southern parts of the UK.
02:07That's how we go into the weekend,
02:09but we will perhaps see a subtle change by the time
02:13we get to the second half of the weekend.
02:14By Sunday, the jet stream isn't amplified.
02:17It's not going way to the north and driving to the south.
02:20It's more coming straight across the Atlantic.
02:22Now, this we call a zonal weather pattern,
02:26and this is perhaps a more typical weather pattern,
02:28especially so in autumn.
02:30And that tends to, instead of looking at low pressures down
02:33to the south, it tends to pick up low pressures out
02:36in the Atlantic and move them across the UK.
02:38So they're not as slow moving, and they're
02:40bringing spells of wet weather back across the UK.
02:43Tightly packed isobars, so yes, at times it will be windy,
02:47but with the low bringing in milder air from the Atlantic.
02:51So instead of those slow moving weather systems,
02:54the weather gets a bit of a supercharge
02:57from the jet stream, and we'll see the weather patterns
02:59changing a bit more rapidly, at least for a time,
03:01into the early part of next week.
03:03But it's still low pressure, so there'll still
03:05be bands of wet and windy weather swinging through,
03:08but it perhaps won't be as cold.
03:10Now, I talked about those weather patterns shifting,
03:12but it's not a dramatic shift.
03:14Notice particularly close to the UK,
03:16the jet stream isn't especially lively,
03:19and signs are through next week that you could almost
03:21see that jet stream trying to bend back and become
03:24more amplified again.
03:25So that's the big question mark next week.
03:28Will the jet stream remain more zonal,
03:30or will we see a return to that more amplified pattern
03:34and things becoming slow moving again?
03:36So yes, a change into the early part of next week,
03:38but then uncertainty beyond that.
03:41Let's have a look at some charts for later next week.
03:44This is the American model showing
03:45a chart for Wednesday night of low pressure
03:48sitting pretty much slap bang across the UK,
03:50rather like Monday's chart.
03:52That would again bring mild weather in from the Atlantic
03:54and a spell of wet and windy weather as well.
03:57But for the same time, the European model
04:00has low pressure close to the UK, but it's further east.
04:03The jet stream isn't as noticeable.
04:05We're on the cold side of the jet,
04:07and there's some very cold air not far from the UK.
04:12And you can see that if this model's right,
04:14that cold air could start to slip southwards
04:16right at the end of next week, bringing significant chill.
04:21Now, the uncertainty is shown in this graph here.
04:24This is a meteorogram showing temperature trends.
04:27This one's for Exeter.
04:28There's the data along the bottom.
04:30The red blobs are the likely maximum temperature.
04:33The larger the blob, the greater the uncertainty.
04:35So at the start of the period, we're
04:37pretty certain that the red blobs
04:39will be sitting underneath the average temperature line.
04:42So yes, it's going to be cold for the next few days.
04:45But there's a trend there.
04:46It does get warmer, gets milder through the weekend.
04:50And then into next week, well, there's
04:51not a great trend there.
04:53The blobs are sitting pretty much on that average line.
04:56But notice they're getting larger.
04:57There's quite a big spread, especially by the time
05:00we get to the end of next week.
05:02And that's the uncertainty.
05:04Will it be turning colder, or will it be milder?
05:07We are pretty confident that the main themes are low pressure
05:10will dominate next week.
05:11So expect further spells of wet and windy weather.
05:14But the big uncertainty, the big thing
05:15we'll be keeping an eye on as we go towards December
05:18is, will it be a mild wet and windy,
05:21or will it be turning a little bit colder?
05:23So that's what we'll be keeping an eye on as we
05:25go into next week.
05:26For you to keep an eye on the day-to-day weather,
05:28well, the best thing to do is to subscribe to our YouTube
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