00:00Hello, welcome to your Met Office 10-day trend.
00:04There are signs of drier, perhaps sunnier weather
00:08just around the corner.
00:09And by just around the corner, I'm
00:11really talking about next week.
00:13The rest of this week, the next five days,
00:15it is more of the same weather-wise.
00:17There'll be showers, longer spells of rain,
00:19often quite blustery.
00:21And after a couple of mild days, it
00:23is also going to turn colder again.
00:25Although, having said all that, Friday
00:27does look like a dry day for most.
00:28But for a longer spell of drier weather,
00:31well, we are going to have to wait until next week.
00:33But there's now some pretty strong signals
00:36that high pressure will arrive.
00:37Haven't seen that for quite some time.
00:39Certainly bringing drier weather,
00:41the likelihood of chilly nights and some frost,
00:44the possibility that if we see some sunshine,
00:47it could just start to feel a bit more like spring.
00:50Before we get there, though, we do
00:52have to contend with further areas of low pressure.
00:54Warm weather from swinging across the country tonight,
00:57bringing some wintry weather.
00:58Another low bringing more wet and windy weather
01:00during Thursday, the isobars squeezing together.
01:03Follow those isobars, and as that system clears
01:06on Thursday, well, the air is going
01:07to be coming down from the north.
01:09That's some pretty cold air.
01:11Haven't seen much of that through the winter.
01:13It doesn't last, but it will bring a bit of a chill
01:16for many on Friday morning.
01:18But on Friday itself, this little bump in the isobars,
01:21well, that is a tiny ridge of high pressure.
01:24So as I said at the start, for many,
01:26Friday looks like being a dry and a fine day,
01:29although you will notice there are more weather fronts,
01:31another low pressure system waiting in the wings.
01:33That will bring rain to the west later on in the day.
01:36But as I said, for many parts of the country,
01:39Friday, after a cold start, looks largely dry and bright.
01:43That rain in the west, though, that area of low pressure
01:45will move across all parts during Friday night,
01:48springing rain, followed by showers for most on Saturday,
01:51followed by another low for Sunday.
01:54Again, the isobars fairly close together.
01:56Going to be a blustery weekend.
01:58And there's a little wriggle, a little ripple,
02:00or a wave, as we call it, on that weather front.
02:04And that has the potential to bring some heavy rain.
02:06Now, don't rely too much on the details at this stage.
02:10Waving weather fronts are notoriously tricky
02:12to predict the details of.
02:14But that could just bring some heavy rain for time
02:16across parts of the UK on Saturday night and into Sunday.
02:20Generally, though, the weekend, we
02:22are back to showery, breezy conditions.
02:25Beyond the weekend, though, beyond the weekend,
02:28it does look as if the weather will be finally settling down.
02:32The jet stream is the key to all this.
02:35It's been south shifted over recent weeks,
02:38taking low pressure systems across the UK.
02:40Over the next few days, well, it has some ripples and wiggles
02:44in it that will enhance those low pressure systems.
02:47But by the time we get to early next week,
02:49the jet stream is back further north.
02:51And it's steering the low pressure systems further north
02:55up towards Iceland, allowing high pressure
02:57to dominate across the southern parts of the UK at least.
03:00So here, looking like a fine start to the working week.
03:03But notice that low isn't too far away from northern
03:06Scotland, and there'll be strong winds and some outbreaks
03:09of rain here.
03:10But generally, it is high pressure
03:12taking control next week.
03:13How long will it stick around for?
03:16That's the big question.
03:17Well, this chart suggests it's going to stick around
03:19for a while, for most of next week.
03:21I've been showing this chart for the past few weeks
03:23on the 10-day trend.
03:25It shows the pressure tendency, the most likely pressure
03:28scenario across the UK.
03:30Blue is low pressure.
03:32Red is high pressure.
03:34Down the y-axis here, we're going back in time.
03:37And these are the forecast days ahead.
03:40So the most latest run of the computer model
03:42suggesting that high pressure will be in control.
03:44And the last few model runs have had a strong suggestion
03:48that through the middle part of next week,
03:50yes, it will be high pressure in control.
03:52Some uncertainty about exactly how we get there.
03:54And that red line there, well, that's
03:56showing us that ridge, that area of high pressure
03:58that we saw for Friday.
04:00So yes, high pressure is set to build in next week,
04:03bringing drier weather.
04:06However, the position of the high
04:08is key to the exact type of weather that we see.
04:12So the exact shape and position of the high
04:15will tend to move around in forecasts
04:18over the next few days.
04:19But the high pressure, if it's sitting like this,
04:21well, that's fairly straightforward.
04:23Slap bang over the UK, then most parts of the UK
04:26will see dry weather.
04:28It means this time of year, the nights
04:30are still long enough for some frosty conditions.
04:33But by day, we should see some sunshine.
04:34There's a bit of power in the sun as well.
04:36So it will feel like spring in the sunny spells
04:39in the afternoon.
04:40However, high pressure can be in control of our weather,
04:42but not necessarily sitting right over us.
04:45If the high is shifted further south,
04:47then fine and dry across much of England and Wales
04:50in this scenario.
04:51But around the area of high pressure,
04:52the winds could be coming in like this
04:54across Northern Ireland and Scotland,
04:56springing more cloud, more moisture,
04:58and therefore some rain.
05:00Equally, the high pressure could be shifted
05:02in a slightly different orientation.
05:03If it's a bit further north,
05:05well, then across Scotland, Northern Ireland,
05:07Northern Britain generally, yes, sunny with light winds.
05:10But around the high, we could start to see
05:11the winds coming in like this,
05:13fairly brisk winds across East Anglia and Southern England,
05:15springing a cold feel and more moisture off the North Sea
05:19and therefore a bit more cloud.
05:21So high pressure doesn't necessarily mean sunny everywhere.
05:24It does mean that next week looks an awful lot drier
05:27across most of the UK,
05:29which is good news given such a wet February.
05:31And we are likely to see some nighttime frost.
05:33Some sunshine is expected,
05:35but the details of exactly where and when,
05:37well, for that, you'll need to stay tuned.
05:39Stay up to date.
05:40And the best way to do that
05:41is to follow the Met Office on social media.
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