00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor, to discuss the very recent
00:18crisis in Bangladesh. It is my pleasure to welcome Dr. Sreeradha Dutta, a scholar who
00:29has been in a number of institutes and think tanks, and has studied this subject very closely
00:43for some decades now. It's been very, the last few days, you know, have been very disturbing,
00:56whatever we're hearing. The 77-year-old Sheikh Hasina having to leave at very short notice,
01:03flee Bangladesh at very short notice, coming to India, still not certain when she will go
01:12to the United Kingdom. Awami League is all obviously, you know, sort of broken down.
01:20There are attacks on Hindus and temples, which are in full swing. Bangabandhu statue being
01:27desecrated is a very, very unpleasant sight. The Prime Minister's residence was raided. I mean,
01:37so many things which are so, so disturbing. And Muhammad Yunus and the army chief have said
01:48nothing about taking, you know, ensuring that the lives of Hindus and their property are safe.
01:57There's a lot we need to be very, very careful about. When for almost three decades,
02:09the Bangladesh Nationalist Party held power till 2009 almost, there was a very, very heavy presence
02:21of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, the ISI. And there was a concerted move to try and,
02:29you know, pump in illegal migrants from Bangladesh. There's a book which I wrote,
02:37Assam Terrorism and the Demographic Challenge. This was released in 2012, by which time there
02:46were about 11 districts, at least, where the demography had changed. There are states which
02:58share borders with Bangladesh, you know, which will have, they'll have to be careful. The Indian
03:05army, the Indian security apparatus, the Northeast will have to be very, very careful now. I won't
03:14take much more. I'll hand you over to Dr. Sreeradha Dutta for much more. Please.
03:22Thank you, Kalnurbar. Good to see you after long. Yes, it's extremely a complex and a very difficult
03:31phase that is unfolding in Bangladesh. But this evening, I think the Nobel Laureate has taken
03:39oath as head of the Ketika government or the interim government. And we've been hearing names
03:45of some extremely well known responsible civil society members who are likely to be part of the
03:51interim cabinet. Yes, while you do mention, and I haven't noticed, Dr. Yunus mentioned anything
03:59about the minority, but I haven't been tracking that so much. But it's incorrect to say that there
04:05has been no reaction from Bangladesh about the minority attacks. In fact, what we have seen
04:11images, and I've heard young students saying about how many of these, even the Madrasa students are
04:17guarding the temples just now. There's a constant plea to ensure that, you know, Hindus are protected,
04:24that they, there is of course, a narrative being built here in terms of how they had to flee their
04:29homes, they're coming towards India. Some of it may be true, we haven't seen the images as yet,
04:34it's difficult to see. But I think there is both misinformation, disinformation going on
04:38on both sides. So I would be a bit skeptic. I'm never denying that there hasn't been attacks. In
04:43fact, even Awami League members have been attacked. But of course, the Hindu, the minority attacks do
04:50concern us gravely. And we certainly, I'm hoping that once this interim government takes over,
04:56things will settle down. And I do agree with what you're saying, those images that we saw of
05:01Ganapobon and mistression of Mujib's statue was certainly not something that you looked,
05:08you know, we looked, it looked pretty to any one of us. But if you recall, the Aragalya movement
05:13that happened in Sri Lanka, you know, a couple of years ago was similar. So I just think it's
05:19a heat of the moment and of, I mean, of young youth, whatever. And let's not forget the fact
05:25that there are miscreants in every society. And Bangladesh has its share also. But also much of
05:31that is a lot of the pent up anger that they've had towards this government. So a reflection of
05:38that, and, you know, it's fine to say all of this, but let's not forget the kind of repressive
05:44measures that the government has, you know, applied to many of its civil society members.
05:50We in fact getting to see the extrajudicial killing list. We are seeing the disappeared
05:54personnel now appearing. So clearly, much of what policies and measures that were undertaken
06:01by Awami League is now, you know, pouring out and the anger of the people is pretty palpable.
06:06While this is not to excuse any of that, what is happening there, but I'm very convinced that
06:12Bangladeshis in general don't approve of what is happening. And they will ensure that once
06:17the interim government is in place, that the law and order, that will be their first priority to
06:22restore or not. I think it's heartening to hear from you that there are still at least elements
06:31who are trying to, you know, guard the Hindus and their temples, etc. It's heartening because
06:43from whatever visuals that we were seeing and what we're hearing, it was, you know, very,
06:49very disturbing. One has, you know, followed Bangladesh right from the time it became
06:56Bangladesh, you know, every year. If I may just button here a little bit, I'm sorry, but you know,
07:03I agree the visuals were very disturbing, but why are we ignoring the visuals which came before that,
07:08before 5th of August? Why we did not react to those visuals? I did not see a single commentator
07:14in India ever talk about it. I'm sorry to say this in public domain. No, no, you're right.
07:19I was screaming hoarse from 17th July at every, you know, platform that I had saying that this
07:25cannot go on, this is not tenable, this is not accountable. But I didn't see a single Indian
07:31responsible citizen or, you know, commentator talk about those visuals. Those visuals were pathetic
07:37when you saw unarmed students being bulleted and fell it down. I mean, that's not acceptable either.
07:44I think I can say I face the same because there are two, I won't go into names, but two
07:50individuals who turned down my request to, you know, discuss at a stage 10 days or more earlier.
07:59But now, what kind of hopes can we, you know, from Muhammad Yunus and from the army in the
08:14awail, the army chief sounded very, you know, proper that everything will carry on properly,
08:22there will be, you know, peace, there will be law and order. But somehow, having, you know,
08:34experienced an eruption in the armed forces set up shortly after Sheikh Hasina took over,
08:45it's a reminder that, you know, everything has not been hunky-dory as far as
08:56the Bangladesh army is concerned. After all, it is the same army which had very, very patriotic
09:05people who, you know, who supported the Awami League, but there were as many who did not,
09:16and it's such people who, at the hands of whom Bangabandhu got killed.
09:21So, I mean, that's history, but can one hope now that there is going to be,
09:36you know, a reasonable improvement in the situation? And what do you think is going to
09:43happen to the Awami League? That's, are they going to, now that they, you know,
09:50I don't think they're going to sit and take everything. They've lost 29 at least.
10:02Well, to begin with, I would think that, you know, right now it's a student movement,
10:07their influence on this particular interim cabinet is reflective of the nature of
10:13personalities who have been included, which is completely apolitical from various walks of life,
10:18from government and, you know, public sector. I didn't notice anyone from the private sector,
10:24perhaps, but, you know, it's maybe I don't have the full list with me as yet. But more importantly,
10:30I'm not sure what is the, because we don't know those details, how long they intend to be there.
10:36As we know, a KTK government in its earlier avatar used to be there for three months to,
10:41you know, assess the election commission for free and fair election. But this is a bit of
10:46a different nature. Bangladesh has had elections this January, so I'm not sure how early they can
10:51go into elections. But coming back to the Awami point, I mean, I would think that Bangladesh now
10:57wants a really a robust multi-party democratic nation. And it is in that state, they will
11:04certainly want Awami League to be participative. It cannot be a one-sided affair, which we've seen
11:09in the last 15 years. That is exactly what the students were protesting about. The last 15 years
11:14was a one-party rule in Bangladesh. And I'm sure they will not approve of the same. We've just,
11:20I've just heard one interview, particularly of Dr. Yunus, where he talks about Jamaat being,
11:25you know, entering the political landscape, which they always were there. I've, in fact, in one of
11:29my books, call them the Queenmaker, because they've always sided with the government,
11:35or outside. So they're saying that let Jamaat also, you know, Jamaat has never won
11:40more than 5% or 4% votes, actually. So I'm quite convinced that Bangladeshis don't want
11:46Jamaat per se as a political entity to governing them. But I think what essentially Bangladeshis
11:52want now is a level playing field for every single political party. And I'm sure Awami League will
11:59also be included in that particular dispensation when that particular thing happens. Right now,
12:04of course, as you mentioned, tempers are very high. You know, the misdeeds, if I could say that,
12:10of the last few years has taken a toll. And, you know, when a particular party is in power,
12:17and they're ruling the roost, then nobody talks about it. But what has happened, this pressure
12:22cooker thing that has now come up, is something that we didn't see these after effects in
12:27Bangladesh. But again, if I, you know, I've been hearing a lot of these students and their
12:32interviews last couple of weeks, I'm super impressed with the maturity, with the moderation
12:38that they have, and the kind of vision they represent of Bangladesh. I don't think I've even
12:43seen any political leader in Bangladesh, either Awami or else, any of the other political party,
12:48talk about that in such an articulate manner. So I'm very convinced that I think Bangladesh
12:53will save us. Yes, it's a tumultuous period. It's going to take a while. We don't want to
12:58see that kind of violence and what is, you know, right now unfolding there. But again, as I say,
13:04and I'm hoping we're all keeping our fingers crossed that things will settle down, and we
13:07will see a far more democratic nation once again. Well, you know, it's nice to hear you being,
13:19you know, being able to bring out the potential of a very significant improvement in the situation.
13:31And first of all, it beats one's imagination how it came about because Bangladesh was one country
13:38which was doing quite well, you know, compared to, we've had, we have more than a share of
13:49problems in this neighbourhood with. Awami League took over. It was a great relief to India, you
14:00know, at least from that point of view, as far as India is concerned, it was a great relief.
14:09But it's a pity why, as you brought out, how such, how things reached a stage where, you know,
14:21such unfair means got adopted by the Awami League government.
14:28One can only hope that now when, you know, things start getting, start getting OK, they become OK
14:42because really, I'm extremely, as a military analyst, I'm extremely apprehensive about the
14:52kind of trouble we can have at the hands of, if the ranks of Pakistan's ISI starts swelling up
15:00again, you know, in Bangladesh. It's, in fact, the ISI which converted the insurgency movements,
15:12the purely insurgency movements of the Northeast into terrorist movements, you know, insurgency
15:19come terrorism, whether it is Assam or Manipur or, you know, any of the insurgent groups.
15:38Anything else, Sridhar, that you'd like to add?
15:43I completely agree about the security concerns that we have. And I'm just hoping again that
15:50the Bangladesh that you referred to, which is a phase of 2001 and 2006, when we saw these kind of,
15:56you know, anti-India activities taking place from Bangladeshi soil, which is very much egged on by
16:01Pakistan. And even now, there's a lot of narrative about these external players and their hand there.
16:06But I do believe that today's Bangladesh is a different Bangladesh. It's not the same 2001
16:11Bangladesh. And also, you know, the neighbors, all the neighbors, including Bangladesh,
16:17have understood the dividends of working with India. And what would they gain by doing what
16:23you're suggesting they would? In fact, in the Northeast also, again, the situation is very
16:27different in the Northeast. Today, the only particular element who's the difficult one is
16:32Manipur, right? And so we, I mean, I think we can control our own internal issues ourselves.
16:40We have the wherewithal, which we at that point of time is different, our capacities are different.
16:45The security concerns are always abound in the neighborhood. It's not to discount that.
16:49But I think that I would expect Bangladesh to understand that it is by working with India,
16:55they will benefit more. It's a mutually, you know, beneficial situation that we now live in.
17:02It's a completely integrated economies that we live in, cross-border facilities, which are
17:06working so fabulously. So essentially, every government wants to deliver for its own people.
17:11And I think working with India, the delivery mechanisms are going to be far more robust.
17:17And why would Bangladesh not want to do that? Also, you know, being a strong India as a partner
17:23is also a counterbalance for the other external players, and you know, not to mention China here.
17:28So I don't think Bangladesh would want to lose that advantage of working with India.
17:32They want to showcase their, you know, partnership with India, because that's also a strong message
17:37to the other players, which they also want to capitalize on that. So it's, I think it's a great,
17:42I mean, I think the new, the emergent Bangladesh that we see now, and a multi-party Bangladesh with
17:47different, you know, political views, this is not to ever discount the kind of support that
17:53Sheikh Hasina gave to us. It's true. But at the same time, domestically, the kind of things that
17:58took place was clearly something that we didn't ever raise, because it was suiting us to work
18:03with Sheikh Hasina at that point of time. But the non-democratic practices, the repression that she,
18:09you know, folded on media and the civil society was something which is completely
18:15non-acceptable. So, but I hope things are settled down. And I hope that the new Bangladesh that we
18:20see is one Bangladesh, which will see the benefit of working with India. That's what I'm
18:26looking forward to. And I think the new generation is politically aware, economically conscious,
18:32they want a better life for themselves. And that will happen only when they work in partnership
18:37with us and everybody around them. No, no, you're very right. We are the, you know,
18:43one country which it will be very beneficial to Bangladesh to, you know, continue
18:52economic cooperation with them, without doubt, without doubt. And from whatever you were going
18:59to say, I'll say like they say in Hindi, let this all happen, because it's very important that
19:12things get back to, and it's a pity that a person like Sheikh Hasina Wajid, you know,
19:22took a course which was not really expected of and the way she's left, maybe, you know,
19:30it's indicative. Anyway, that's history. But let's only hope for, as far as India-Bangladesh
19:41relations are concerned. First of all, let there be normalcy in Bangladesh and let India-Bangladesh
19:48relations, you know, come back to as best as possible. Thank you very much, Sriradha.
20:01I'm very happy about this. I mean, you know, India has always had a very binary approach
20:07to Bangladesh. Hopefully, we will move away from that. And I think we'll be able to work with
20:11whichever entity comes to, comes elected to Dhaka. I think India is very much ready to work
20:18with everyone there. So, looking forward to a far more positive bilateral relation without the other
20:25things putting us down. Thank you very much, Sriradha. All the best. Thank you.
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