00:00The Padres lost their final game in June against the Red Sox, unable to sweep the Boston Red
00:09Sox, but they have still won nine of their last 11 entering July.
00:14Tonight they get a team in Texas who was struggling to end out that month of June, trying to look
00:21like the World Series winners from a year ago.
00:24Virtual pick of Dylan Cease gets the start for San Diego, Nathan Eovaldi on the other
00:28side for Texas, should be a good one in Arlington.
00:32What do you think happens?
00:33Yeah.
00:34What have I told you?
00:35Like Luis Uriah is one of the worst hitters right now, projectable tonight going up against
00:39Nathan Eovaldi.
00:40You wouldn't believe it, but there's some other guys that can really get after which
00:42includes Jackson Merrill.
00:43My goodness.
00:44The young center fielder batting from the left side, 58 at bats he's had against right
00:48into pitching over the past month.
00:49How about if I gave you a 364 iso and a weighted on base percentage of 530, he probably will
00:53be in the mix.
00:54But if we're taking a look at the pitching matchup, technically it's pretty good here
00:58and rightfully so in San Diego side.
01:00If we just take a look at overall splits, take away home and away for the past 60 days,
01:05the number one pitcher on the card today, it's Dylan Cease at a 445 ERA say, how can
01:09that guy be the best?
01:11Because his expert number is 2.83, which means he's getting a lot of unluckiness and you
01:15might be getting value now in Cease.
01:17So then you want to say like, well, is he a better pitcher at home and away?
01:20And where are those splits going to affect him here?
01:22No, he's the number one pitcher on the card today in totality and also at home with an
01:26ERA of 3.66 and an expert number of 2.98.
01:30He's been really good.
01:31If we're taking away some of those road splits here with Nathan E of Aldi climbs up a little
01:35bit ERA number on the road this year through 28 and the third innings pitched.
01:39How about this?
01:40A 5.40, but his exit is a little bit lower at 4.22.
01:43But the pitching advantage with Dylan Cease at home at this point, if we're taking a look
01:47at that Texas lineup, it's not all that great outside of Josh Smith and Adoles Garcia, everybody
01:53else is below the median on ISO power number for that matter, weighted on base percentage.
01:58So the better team for me on the mound and at the plate, it's going to be San Diego for
02:02me.
02:03I'll take Dylan Cease and San Diego Moneyline here.
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