Can the Bills Steady What's Been an Unpredictable Season Ride?

SportsGrid

Watch Can the Bills Steady What's Been an Unpredictable Season Ride? - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00 [MUSIC]

00:02 We cap it off tonight with two teams tonight where you really don't know what to expect.

00:08 Very unpredictable this season, probably Buffalo more unpredictable than Denver.

00:13 The Bills are seven point favorites with a total of 47.5, so that excites me to think

00:18 that there could be some points scored. The Broncos playing a little bit better

00:22 lately. We saw that win against Kansas City, but do you think,

00:26 Warren, that that was like a one hit wonder for Denver? And by the way,

00:30 are the Bills ever just going to get it going? Or are they going to finish the season like

00:35 nine and eight or ten and seven and then expect the light just goes on as soon as they hit

00:40 December or January? >> Well, I think their problem is

00:43 their defense is just so banged up and it's continued to get worse and worse.

00:47 I'm trying to find the final injury report for tonight's game once that comes out. But it looks

00:51 like they might have lost a couple additional defenders since last week's game. And so that

00:56 just puts pressure on the offense and the offense is in this state of flux where they don't really

01:00 know what they want to do. What they were with Brian D'Abel was this pass first come out, build

01:04 a quick lead and everybody's scoring points and we're having a high flying fun time.

01:09 Now with Josh Allen's injury and this offense under Sean McDermott, they want to run the football a

01:14 little bit more. We don't really know what offensive stylings we're going to get here.

01:18 We don't have a lot of confidence on that side of the ball compared to what we had

01:22 at certain points in 2020, 2021, etc. So here we are. I want to talk about the other side of

01:29 the ball though, the Denver Broncos, because it is possible that Denver is in a state and they

01:34 have to live in this state where this game is a one score game throughout that the Buffalo Bills

01:39 don't jump out to a big lead. And the reason why it's possible is because the single best team in

01:43 the NFL at being productive on the opening drive of the game, the first drive are the Denver Broncos.

01:49 They gain on average over 55 yards per drive. They've scored touchdowns at the highest rate of

01:55 any team on the first drive of the game. And you've got this Buffalo Bills defense, which is

02:00 a little bit depleted due to injury. So if Denver can have their way and come out with

02:04 elite game scripting from Sean Payton and actually get some points on the board and

02:08 keep this game close, then they're going to be able to do what they need to do to win this game,

02:12 in my opinion, which is run the football. The Buffalo Bills do give up some explosive runs.

02:18 The Buffalo Bills can be a little bit susceptible on the ground and the Denver Broncos have been

02:22 leaning into that. They've been taking the ball out of Russell Wilson's hands these last several

02:26 weeks. Even in the first half of games, they reduced their pass rate on early downs, let's say

02:32 from 66 percent weeks, three to five to the last three weeks that they played down all the way to

02:38 52 percent. So that's a pretty big drop in pass rate. They're relying a little bit more on the

02:44 ground game. And I think that that should have a little bit of success here. The other thing to

02:49 note is that should set up some play action. And the Buffalo Bills defense has massive splits.

02:53 They're the eighth best defense when you don't use play action against them. But they are the third

02:58 worst defense when you do lose play, use play action against them since they lost the first of

03:03 their key defensive players, Matt Milano, several weeks ago. So they dropped all these defensive

03:08 players. They're terrible against play action. If Denver can come out, get a little bit going on

03:13 the first drive, lean a little bit into the run, build off the play action, this game could be very

03:17 competitive. And for that reason, I do have a little bit of value potentially with the Denver

03:22 Broncos here catching the points. Now, it does look like once that got down to seven, some groups

03:27 came in and were betting on the Denver Broncos, sorry, betting on the Buffalo Bills laying the

03:32 seven. But I was one of the guys who came in and took a little bit of seven and a half, and I see

03:37 a little bit of value for the Denver Broncos here.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended