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  • 3 years ago
Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, shares his views on the performance of the Narendra Modi government as it completes its halfway mark of being in power.

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Transcript
00:00 The government has started doing some incredible work on various sectors and if I just quickly
00:17 summarize one is related to reducing leakages and inefficiencies in subsidies disbursement.
00:28 Aadhaar has been made mandatory in LPG connections, in ration cards.
00:34 This has resulted into wetting out of many bogus ration cards and ghost LPG connections.
00:41 Now this money will be saved by the government and that will be utilized for other purposes.
00:47 The second thing which government has done is focus on distribution of LED bulbs.
00:53 About 16 crore bulbs have been distributed.
00:58 Costs have been brought down by almost 75%.
01:02 The target is to distribute by 2019 77 crore LED bulbs that could potentially save 20,000
01:10 megawatt of energy.
01:12 At 6 rupees a unit that's 1,20,000 crore.
01:16 This is more than the 7th pay commission money which will be left into the hands of 1 crore
01:20 plus government employees and pensioners.
01:24 The third thing which government is focused on is increasing the connectivity.
01:32 So the first time in India we have seen ro-ro surveys happening between Chennai where Hyundai
01:37 shipped its car all the way to western India.
01:41 Now this cabotage rule change will allow people to use sea route which is far far cheaper
01:47 compared to railway or road route.
01:51 The second thing is the construction of dedicated freight corridor and it's a project coming
01:55 from previous government but the pace at which now dedicated freight corridor is moving on,
02:01 I think that's going to create great railway connectivity between Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata.
02:08 Today our freight trains carry about 5000 tonne average and they move at about 25 km
02:14 average.
02:15 The dedicated freight corridor will probably move 13,000 tonne at about 75 km average.
02:22 That efficiency in road and railway transport is going to change the game.
02:28 The government is also focused on power generation.
02:32 We have seen power generation picking up.
02:34 There is surplus power available even during the summer time.
02:39 Availability of power, availability of reliable power can again change the economics.
02:45 There are so many things which government is doing but clearly all these things which
02:50 is resulting into better productivity for Indian economy, I think will go a long way
02:56 in taking our economy to newer orbits, to greater heights in terms of growth.
03:02 Where the government probably is lacking a little bit is in terms of job creation.
03:08 Particularly today in the Indian economical system, the foreign direct investment is reaching
03:13 all time high.
03:14 The government could see the oil price bonanza is able to spend money and they are able to
03:19 spend money wisely.
03:21 So these two are on the front foot.
03:23 The urban consumption has been a little bit on the back foot because of all the uncertainties
03:28 around job creation.
03:30 The rural economy because of two below average monsoon is on the behind the stump kind of
03:36 thing rather than on back foot because two below average monsoons have really hit hard
03:41 the rural economy.
03:43 And the private investment is actually probably outside the stadium.
03:46 It is not even yet participating in the game.
03:49 The higher debt burden, the higher real interest rates, the tight liquidity, it has derailed
03:55 private investment.
03:57 So we are running an economy which is on the front foot through foreign direct investment
04:02 and government spending which is kind of working out well with urban consumption but it is
04:09 lagging in agriculture and rural economy and the private sector investment.
04:14 This is kind of constraining government's ability to create jobs and that is something
04:19 which we need to focus on.
04:23 For example, let's say the large employment happens in the construction sector.
04:29 Now in some parts of India the real estate prices have gone up so high that it has become
04:36 unaffordable.
04:37 Even the affordable housing finance word is becoming unaffordable to people.
04:42 Now this restricts the construction activity.
04:45 This restricts the job creation which is possible in that sector.
04:49 Now if we can lower the real estate prices, if we can improve the efficiency of constructing
04:54 real estate, my feeling is that affordable housing as a sector could create the jobs
05:02 which we are looking forward to.
05:05 We have one of the largest crop production in cotton.
05:10 We know how to spin that into yarn.
05:12 We also know how to weave that into fabric and from cotton to fabric we do all the hard
05:18 work and then export it to rest of the world which converts that into garments, puts a
05:24 brand on it and makes 90% more profit than what we make from cotton all the way up to
05:30 fabric.
05:32 Our total garment exports is about $17 billion.
05:35 China's total garment exports, if you believe different versions, is more than India's exports
05:41 in all versions.
05:44 Now how can a country like China export more than what we export as a country in just ready-made
05:50 garments?
05:51 What are we not doing here in India despite having cotton, yarn, fabric?
05:57 We need to work around the ways so that we can tomorrow start exporting $50 billion,
06:03 $100 billion, $150 billion of garments.
06:06 The world will require garments irrespective of technology and if we can convert this cotton
06:14 to branded fabric, the margin will be huge and it will be able to meet this employment
06:20 requirement.
06:22 So this is where we are constrained today.
06:24 [Music]
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