00:00The potential for a record-strong El Nino is growing, so we're lowering our Atlantic hurricane season forecast.
00:06But don't think the U.S. is in the clear.
00:08We're now forecasting 8 to 11 named storms, 3 to 4 hurricanes, and 1 to 2 major hurricanes this season.
00:16A stronger El Nino typically means more hostile winds across the Atlantic,
00:20making it harder for tropical systems to develop, and we're already seeing this happening.
00:25But we're still forecasting 3 to 5 direct U.S. impacts.
00:29We've seen 2 already in the Gulf with Arthur and Bertha.
00:33The northern and northeastern Gulf coasts, as well as the Carolina coastline,
00:37remains at a higher-than-historical average risk this hurricane season.
00:41That's partially because the waters near the U.S. are exceptionally warm,
00:46so a tropical wave that may struggle further out in the Atlantic to develop could intensify closer to the coast,
00:52potentially giving you less time to prepare.
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