- 23 minutes ago
Kevin Sheehan gives out his keys to a victory for how the Washington Commanders can upset the 4-4 Los Angeles Rams at Northwest Stadium, focusing on first-down efficiency, neutralizing Puka Nacua, red-zone execution, kicking game edges, and forcing a minimum +2 turnover margin.
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00All right, Sunday. How do they do it?
00:05They can do it. I really have a good feel for this one.
00:09Part of it is just the number and the fact that Washington will definitely be a need for most sportsbooks.
00:15I'll just start there because I think most of you know how I think when it comes to this stuff.
00:20This will be a need for most sportsbooks pretty much anywhere you look.
00:25They're going to need Washington to at least cover.
00:28I think we're going to see a close competitive football game. I really do.
00:32The number one way that Washington stops the Rams and beats the Rams Sunday is they have to win on
00:43first down.
00:44And that is another way, of course, of saying that defensively, they've got to stop the run.
00:50Offensively, they've got to run the football, but not necessarily because the Rams on first down.
00:54Look, they are right now sixth in the league in yards per carry with Kyron Williams and Blake Corum.
01:01They're a very good rush football team. We understand that. We know what Sean would like to do.
01:07He'd love to take that 13 personnel that they run so much of and just ram it down Washington's throat,
01:14controlling the football and running the football, especially with Stafford not being necessarily at 100%.
01:21There is some concern about an elbow with Stafford.
01:24Right now, there's just a concern in general about how fluid they've been offensively in the past game.
01:30But they can run the football.
01:31And if they get after Washington, and Washington's been excellent against the run, you know, this is the matchup.
01:38But it's not just running the football.
01:40The Rams, as you know, if you've watched them, a lot of early down, you know, screens, bubble screens, perimeter,
01:47you know, throws.
01:48Run extension plays through the air.
01:52Washington's got to be effective on first down defensively.
01:55They cannot be off balance.
01:58If it's, look, the Rams love to be so effective on first and second down that they don't end up
02:04facing third downs.
02:05It's something that Sean McVay talked about when he was here, that we don't want to be a great third
02:11down.
02:11We want to be a good third down team, but not in attempts.
02:14We don't want to have, you know, we don't want to lead the league in attempts on third down.
02:18We want to be a dynamic first and second down team.
02:21So we can avoid the pressure down, which is third down.
02:25Washington's got to get them into third downs, you know, and the only way to do that is to be
02:29effective on first down.
02:31Defensively, it is stopping the run.
02:33And I got to tell you, it's got to be stopping the run without having to bring safety into the
02:38box.
02:39Because if you bring, you know, if here comes Nick Cross over and over again,
02:45they're going to kill you by throwing the ball over the top, even in 13 personnel.
02:51First down, so crucial for Washington defensively.
02:54So crucial.
02:55We know what Kyle offenses, Sean offenses, Ben Johnson offenses, we know what they look like
03:02when they get four, five, six, seven yards on first down.
03:07You know, five, six, or seven yards in particular.
03:10They've got you off balance.
03:11They've got you guessing.
03:12And they're going to be paying many a visit to the end zone if that happens.
03:17Now, on the flip side, Washington offensively on first down has to be effective.
03:24Whether it's running the football, which they had an opportunity to do, I think, even more so against the Eagles
03:31than the numbers reflected.
03:34Or with run extension throws, quick game.
03:38You know, Suter brought up something in his film breakdown.
03:41And I forget whether or not this was the part of the film breakdown that I played on radio yesterday.
03:45But he believes that they are, you know, setting teams up because they haven't run it in a while.
03:54They haven't run much zone read.
03:56That they are setting teams up and teams eventually are going to ignore the possibility of Jaden being an option
04:03runner.
04:05He hasn't done it much.
04:07He certainly hasn't been a designed runner, whether it be with even a quarterback draw.
04:13All of his rushing yards, for the most part, have come on dropbacks, have come on pass plays where he
04:20is scrambled.
04:21And this may be a game in which you want Jaden Daniels involved somewhat in the run game.
04:29The quarterback being involved in the run game is an advantage to the offense.
04:34When he does pull it on the option, you are then 11 on 11 in the run game.
04:39And everybody is told, all of us, especially the group that will be facing, that coaching staff and their predecessors
04:46and the root of the tree that produced all of these guys.
04:51They'll tell you that there's such an advantage when the quarterback is part of the run game.
04:58Because now all 11 are involved in the run game.
05:02You don't have a quarterback handing off and watching.
05:05The run game typically is 10 on 11 football.
05:08And really, it's 9 on 11 blocking.
05:12Because the running back's got the ball in his hands.
05:15And the quarterback at that point is out of the play.
05:17When the quarterback's involved, it's 10 on 11 blocking.
05:20And the quarterback is the runner or a potential runner.
05:24I'm going to be interested to see against some of these really good opponents, these aggressive opponents, if there's more
05:33zone read.
05:35I don't know that it comes this week against a primarily base 3-4 team.
05:39But I do think it could come in weeks ahead.
05:43I know that they would rather Jaden not be involved in the run game a lot.
05:50They don't want him at 10, 11, 12 carries per game.
05:53I'm with them on that.
05:54But the occasional zone read then makes him a threat every time you make them look at a potential zone
06:03read.
06:03And that makes the defense, you know, have to make a decision.
06:09It puts the defense in conflict.
06:12Winning first down on Sunday, I think, is one of the keys to the game, both sides of the ball.
06:18You've got to gain 4-5 plus yards on first down offensively.
06:22And you've got to hold them to less than 5 yards on first down offensively.
06:29They've got to tackle well, for sure.
06:31I have confidence that they will be a good tackling team.
06:36You know, they have been a decent tackling team.
06:38They tackled exceptionally well on Sunday night.
06:41They do not – this has not been a team at 2-4-1 that has given you any less
06:48than incredibly high energy effort
06:51on the defensive side of the ball week in and week out.
06:54You know, even against the 49ers, they're just that good.
06:57The Rams right now are not as good as the 49ers are offensively.
07:02They're not.
07:03They also have a player, however, that's probably better than anybody the 49ers put out on the field against us
07:11on that Monday night.
07:13I mean, McCaffrey's close.
07:14But Puka Nakua is impossible.
07:17And here's the thing that comes second after winning first down on both sides of the ball.
07:22You have to try.
07:24You have to try to take Puka Nakua as much out of the game as possible.
07:29And the one thing you have to do against him is you have to tackle him.
07:34He's going to catch the ball occasionally close to the line of scrimmage.
07:37He's going to catch the ball on crossers.
07:39He's going to – they're going to throw it to him on deep balls.
07:43He can run every single route, and every single time he catches the ball, he turns into a battering ram.
07:51He is a big, physical man.
07:56You've got to try to take him out.
07:58I don't know if they will do that.
08:00They have played more.
08:01Ben, don't break in terms of the teams that they have faced here recently, trying to win more in the
08:07red zone.
08:08Philadelphia being a bad team offensively, but it's kind of the way they played it against San Francisco.
08:15But you can't let this guy take the game over.
08:18He is one of those receivers.
08:20We've talked a lot about receivers on this show over the years.
08:23He is one of the guys that you force feed, and you try to let him take over a football
08:30game.
08:30And their loss to Buffalo on Monday Night Football on October 12th, they targeted Puka Nakua in that game 24
08:41times.
08:43Buffalo's defense, not very good.
08:4524 targets in a game.
08:4817 catches, 138 yards.
08:52That's only 8.1 yards per reception.
08:55You know, if you can hold him to 8.1 yards per reception, you're doing well.
09:01But I don't think you want him catching 17 balls.
09:07He's special.
09:09He's such a great player.
09:11He is 6'3", 220 pounds, and he plays fast and he plays big.
09:18He's elite.
09:19This is what an elite receiver looks like.
09:22Number 12 for the Rams.
09:25You cannot let him take over and dominate the game.
09:29I don't know what that means coverage-wise.
09:31I don't know if that means you have Trey Amos travel with him.
09:34It's not what they've done.
09:36They've played primarily zone coverage.
09:38Means he's going to catch a lot of balls underneath, and you've got to come up and you've got to
09:42hit him.
09:42And you've got to make sure that you get him to the ground.
09:47Red zone efficiency in this game will be massive.
09:50Washington last week did a better job in the red zone.
09:58Offensively, they have not been good in the red zone.
10:01Defensively, they have been terrible in the red zone.
10:04And last week in the red zone, they were two for three.
10:08It's going to have to be more trips to the red zone, like at least four, and they're going to
10:13have to hit on three of them.
10:15This will be a game in which you're going to need touchdowns, not field goals.
10:20Sunday night, it was okay to kick field goals.
10:23It was okay on fourth and four at the Philly 38, down 10-0, to send out the kicker for
10:31a 56-yarder.
10:33You did not fear like you were going to be in a shootout, like you did with San Francisco.
10:40So this is one of those games where red zone efficiency means everything.
10:46And you're going to have to win that battle.
10:49They're going to have to be one for three or two for four, and you're going to have to be
10:55three for four in the football game.
10:59You know, they've had some special teams issues over the last couple of years, and they're having them again this
11:07year.
11:08Last week, they added Brandon McManus.
11:11They've had kicker issues all season long.
11:15On the season so far, they have had four kickers involved.
11:22It's McManus now.
11:24He was one for one last week.
11:26It was just a 30-yarder.
11:27That was it.
11:28That's all he attempted.
11:30They had all those issues with the guy Mervis and with the other guy before that, Blake Groupie, I think.
11:39But McManus is the guy now.
11:42Well, this is an area of the game that Washington could use a plus in, meaning another big return by
11:52McCaffrey, a missed extra point or a missed field goal from McManus.
11:55It could be one of those things when we're talking on Monday, if it's a 24-23 win, it could
12:02be that McCaffrey had a big punt return that set him up on a short field and a touchdown that
12:06was huge.
12:07And McManus missed a field goal and an extra point.
12:11We know how visiting kickers do, and it's typically not great, at Northwest Field, Landover.
12:21Lastly, I do think that this is going to be one of those games.
12:25It was like the Seattle game to a certain degree, maybe a little bit less so.
12:28But plus two is a minimum in the turnover margin area.
12:34Washington was tied for first in overall turnover margin heading into last night, but Jacksonville got a couple takeaways, and
12:43they are now in the lead through eight games at plus nine.
12:46Washington and Minnesota are plus seven.
12:49The Rams are minus four on the year.
12:53They've committed 12 turnovers and have just eight takeaways.
12:58That, you know, sometimes during the course of the year, it is something that holds up turnover margin.
13:04You end up being a team that just takes the ball away and protects the football.
13:09So far, Washington's been great at protecting the football.
13:13You know, it's not like they're taking it away at an alarming rate.
13:16They've got 10 takeaways, which is kind of middle of the pack, but it's the fact that they only have
13:21three giveaways.
13:23You know, at this point, they are tied for the league lead with Houston in the fewest turnovers committed.
13:32Just three.
13:34So that has to continue.
13:37You need a Stafford pick, and he's thrown some this year.
13:41You need a ball on the ground.
13:43And plus two minimum, I think, will be required to pull it off.
13:50I think going into the Seattle game, I said plus two, and that's probably a reach.
13:55It's probably going to have to be plus three or greater.
13:58As it turns out, it had to be plus three.
14:01They needed the three turnovers, or they would have lost the game.
14:05They won 33-31.
14:07They scored off of all three of their turnovers, including having a defensive pick six by Medrano.
14:14So number one is win first down both sides of the ball.
14:19Number two is Nakua.
14:21You cannot let him dominate the game, and you have to tackle Nakua.
14:26You've got to hold him to eight yards per reception.
14:30Tops.
14:32Number three is red zone efficiency.
14:34Number four, and you've got to win that red zone efficiency.
14:37Number four, there's an opportunity special teams-wise always against the Rams to end up in the plus area.
14:45And then I think number five, you've got to be plus two minimum.
14:51I don't know that they have to be plus three, but you cannot lose the turnover margin on Sunday and
14:57expect to beat this football team.
14:59And they haven't been good in the turnover area.
15:02They've been giving the ball away.
15:04If Washington hasn't, that would be a blessing to get one of those and get one of those early to
15:11give you the lead.
15:12Because I think the Rams right now are one of those teams that are a front-running team.
15:17They got on top of the Raiders and essentially led the entire way, even though there was an opportunity there
15:27in the second half for the Raiders to get back into it.
15:30They got on top of the Chargers when they got – they were actually up at halftime just 10-9.
15:37But early in the third quarter, they made it a two-score game, and the Chargers just didn't have enough
15:42offensively.
15:43The Chargers are completely broken offensively.
15:47The Raiders rolled up a lot of yards and rolled up some points and actually had multiple opportunities.
15:55And their problem was one for five in the red zone.
15:59They lost 35-21, a team that's explosive offensively, but they were one for five in the red zone, including,
16:06you know, getting stopped on a tush push, you know, at the 11-yard line.
16:10You can't walk away with those things without points, but more importantly, without touchdowns.
16:16But I could see that kind of success in terms of moving the football against the Rams.
16:24The Cardinals moved the football against the Rams.
16:27The Bills had their way.
16:29Now, that's a different offense for sure.
16:32You know, even the Eagles, you know, when they had that 20-10 lead, you know, they were running the
16:38football without Barkley.
16:39It was with Tank Bigsby that day.
16:41They were running the football.
16:43So, there is a possibility to play well against this team.
16:47This is not the challenge.
16:49I don't think this is the challenge that the Seahawks were in week three or the 49ers were a couple
16:56of weeks ago.
16:57This is a team that certainly talent-wise should be up there, but they're banged up.
17:02They're missing key pieces, and they just haven't put it together yet.
17:09Prediction on this game at the end of the show.