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Stay informed with the latest weather forecast video, covering rain patterns, temperature outlooks, and severe weather warnings. Updated every few days with expert analysis, from Weather Scientist Alex Dunne.
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00:02Hello wonderful people, it is the 1st of November and this is your national weather update for
00:07Australia. Before we get into the weather update I just want to let you know that we will now be
00:10sticking to three consistent regions when giving your localised forecasts. We have Northern Australia
00:17which is sort of Bundaberg upwards, South Western Australia which is all parts of Southern WA and
00:22Western South Australia and then the South East is everywhere from sort of the Brisbane Gympie
00:27region down to Hobart and across to Port Lincoln, Port Augusta so that's the nice big region there.
00:32The reason that we're doing that is firstly that's kind of how synoptic weather systems tend to hit
00:38Australia is in these sort of three regions and to make sure it's easy for you guys to always find
00:42the
00:42video that you're looking for. Give us feedback if you're not happy with this and we can see to change
00:46things. Okay looking at our Sunday to Sunday rainfall accumulation for the week you can see that we
00:51really have two regions of major rainfall up here in the north and also along the east coast. These
00:58systems all have the potential to deliver strong thunderstorms more likely and consistently across
01:05the northern regions throughout the week and if you're down here in the south it's mainly the Monday
01:09and Tuesday that we're seeing a lot of the stormy action but there is rain towards the end of the
01:14week.
01:14If you are in WA or South Australia at all you're likely not going to see much rainfall this week.
01:19All right let's get let's get started. So here on Monday I want to describe or lay out the systems
01:24that we're seeing. So we have a low pressure trough extending through the north which is making this
01:28arced band that you're going to see every single day. We have a low pressure centre here in southern
01:33New South Wales and then we also have a front moving through the southwest here delivering this
01:38strong rainfall in eastern Victoria of 15 to 25 mils and you know sort of linked with this is where
01:44the thunderstorm actions are coming from for this day. All right Tuesday that front has moved
01:49through into the Tasman Sea seeing the rainfall along the east coast and then we continue this
01:53trough pattern across the northern parts of the country. Wednesday you can start to see high
01:57pressure really establishing itself there in the Bight. This is giving some onshore breeze into
02:02southern Victoria which is seeing some moderate rainfall there and we continue to see this trough
02:06in northern parts of the country. All right we start to clear out and really dry out in the south
02:12from Thursday onwards. This is also heating up the temperatures in the south. Up here in the north
02:17we are getting stronger rainfall with some stronger storm systems associated with it. A possible sort of
02:24five to ten mils is available in those systems. All right Friday we're starting to get the next system
02:30moving through western Tasmania. This is still very stormy up in the north and we're dry for the rest of
02:36the
02:37country. And then Saturday more rain down in the south here. I want to see if this develops into
02:43storm systems or not. I think this is one that we're going to have to keep our eye out on
02:46the
02:46forecast to see how it develops through the week. These northern systems are associated with thunderstorms
02:52so definitely something to keep your mind on. As for this southern area of Queensland which is currently
02:58under minor and moderate flood warnings we've seen that it's dry across this week so I think those flood
03:02warnings will recede. And across the northern parts we do have some heat wave warnings this week. So
03:07something to be mindful of when you're working outdoors. All right that is it for our weather
03:12forecast for this week. Let's get into some long range things. Starting off I know I said last week
03:19that I would investigate this second week long range forecast. This is obviously this week's long range
03:24forecast was different last week. I haven't had the chance to find any colleagues to chat about this.
03:28However I did just want to pull up this which is last week's rainfall which is the 25th of October
03:35to the 31st of October. Just to show you that remember in this region we had a very low chance
03:41of exceeding the median rainfall. However this is some of the highest rainfall on record in this region.
03:46So I do think that there is something happening there. Again I want to speak to colleagues before I
03:51make any statements about why this is happening. But just to show that there was a lot of rainfall in
03:56this
03:56region and in fact when we look at the rainfall deciles for the entire month of October we can see
04:03that there were some very much above and highest on record rainfall across that Queensland region
04:08and in fact across most of central Australia. Which is good news coming into this summer. Tasmania
04:13continues to have average to below average rainfall. Some lowest on record rainfall also being recorded.
04:20And then we also have the southern part of WA which is below average rainfall there. So quite a wet
04:26October
04:27I would say for most regions. Let's have a look at the temperatures of the last month. Let's look at
04:36October's
04:36temperatures. So we're going to look at the maximum anomaly. So this is the difference between sort of the
04:45average maximum temperature from 1961 to 1990. That's the reference period compared to this
04:512026 October. And what we can see is that we were a few degrees higher especially in the southern
04:56Queensland. This southeast region was warmer up into the north regions and it was a little bit cooler if
05:03you're in central WA or in this region here. I'm assuming this is actually associated with a lot of that
05:08cloud cover from that rainfall from the very wet October that was seen. So yep definitely warmer than we
05:14would see. Let's have a look at the minimum anomaly because that's always interesting and again across
05:18the country pretty hot compared to the usual minimums. All right let's have a look at the long
05:24range for temperature for the next few weeks. Let's have a look at the top quintile of maximum temperature.
05:32So the number of times more likely to get unusually high maximum temperatures. Let's look at the first
05:40month. So we're looking here for November. What we're seeing is that across the north we're no more
05:45times likely to receive those really hot temperatures than usual. And then down in the south we're about
05:511.5 to 3 times likely depending on the region that you are in to receive some unusually high maximum
05:58temperatures. So there are some high temperatures on the way. Let's have a look at the minimum... let's have a
06:03look at the maximum
06:04temperature bottom quintile. So very unlikely to get very cold maximum temperatures. Let's look at the
06:12minimum. Very unlikely to receive minimum temperatures that are very cold. Very very likely to receive
06:19minimum temperatures that are unusually hot. All right so a bit of heat building up. Not as bad as I
06:24think we were seeing in some of the longer term forecasts earlier this year which is good news. It's not
06:31going to
06:31be as hot as previously predicted but some warmer temperatures seem to be likely on the way. All right
06:38let's check in with our climate drivers. And so ah we're starting to come to the plateau and the decline
06:45which is good. Essentially unless you're the Australian model which looks to be the outlier here
06:51it looks like we're reaching our maximum strength for the El Nino. Remember the strength of the El Nino is
06:57not correlated with the impacts that we receive. Okay so just because we're starting to hit the
07:01plateau and decline in El Nino strength does not necessarily mean that that's going to change the
07:06weather that we receive. Let's have a look at the Indian Ocean Dipole. All right the Japanese models
07:12here are going very strongly and very quickly into a negative IOD which would see wetter weather
07:17especially in the northern regions as it's delivering that tropical Indian Ocean moisture feed
07:23and WA as well so that's quite interesting. And again we now finally have something census that the
07:28Australian model is going slightly negative as well. Okay southern annular mode tending towards lows and
07:35troughs. I think that's really true for what we've seen in the upcoming forecasts. Not very strong fronts
07:40that we're seeing but definitely those trothy lows that are sitting over and delivering that more
07:46multi-day long rain. So with fronts usually you'll get sort of one to two days of stronger rain and
07:53then it
07:53will move off relatively quickly whereas with those troughs and lows that's when we start to see sort of
07:57two, three, four days in a row where it's raining. So I think that's um yeah I can see that's
08:03where
08:03we're going and heading there. And then the Madden-Julian Oscillation for my friends in the north.
08:09The MJO charts are always a little bit hard to read. I will zoom in for you so that we
08:12can maybe read them a bit better.
08:18So here in the red dot here is the date that the model was initialized which was the 28th of
08:25October,
08:26the 1st of November which is today's date is here. It looks like we're sitting in the slightly drier
08:31phases of the MJO for the next sort of few days and then coming back into this sort of central
08:37region. So
08:38MJO isn't showing a lot of strength in where it's predicting slightly drier. There we go.
08:43All righties, that is it for this week's national weather forecast. I do hope that you have a good
08:48week. If you're in a storm affected area please make sure to stay safe, secure anything that needs
08:52to be done and I hope that you got all your harvesting done if you are down here in the
08:57southeast
08:57with more of that rain on the way. All right, have a great week, stay safe and we'll see you
09:01next time. Bye!
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