00:00I'm the guy saying, I'm not ready to truly ask, is this thing real?
00:05And I'm trying, because once we say it's real, we're going to put new expectations on it.
00:10And I just want to enjoy it the way I've enjoyed it.
00:12The last three games, the last two Sundays and one Thursday have been really fun.
00:18Beating the Jets aren't going to do that for you, though.
00:19You don't have to say, oh, it's real because we beat the Jets.
00:22If they beat the Steelers didn't do that for you, beating the Jets aren't going to do that for you.
00:25So I actually think that's my frustrating point here is, I actually, I think the Panthers,
00:31look at how they've played when they aren't playing the Browns.
00:34That offense has been incredible.
00:38Don't talk about the defense against the Bears, but that offense has been incredible.
00:41The Steelers are still the Steelers until proven otherwise.
00:44That's not Duck Hodges at quarterback for the Steelers.
00:47It is still Aaron Rodgers.
00:49And by the way, they beat Cincinnati the week prior.
00:50So, like, I just, I'm already a little frustrated at the rush to, that's not real, screw it.
00:57Like, the Aaron Schatz thing.
00:59You said, I hadn't read Aaron Schatz on the Browns, but just tell me what he said because it pissed
01:05me off six hours ago.
01:06So he's claiming the Browns are one of the worst 3-1 teams ever.
01:09And so he's got a bunch of different numbers and a bunch of different reasons why.
01:12I'll give you a couple of them.
01:13In this piece, he has the Browns' 23rd overall in DVOA with a negative 10% DVOA.
01:19That's the ninth worst DVOA for a 3-1 team since 2000, okay?
01:23His FBI is even harsher.
01:25He has the Browns' 26th in FBI.
01:28Playoff odds for him is an 18% chance to make the playoffs despite the 3-1 start.
01:33And he then just goes down a bunch of different reasons why advanced analytics basically hates his Browns team.
01:38And my rebuttal would be something similar to what Ross Tucker said today at 4 o'clock,
01:44where it's like, man, I'd love to see another game.
01:46You know what I mean?
01:47Well, so he tries making the comparison, and you're right about that.
01:50But he tries making the comparison of the 2016 Rams, who started off the season 3-1,
01:54have a lot of similar advanced metrics than what the Browns have, and then finished the season 4-12.
01:59I would argue that there's other teams out there that we can make a similar 3-1 start and everything
02:03else with,
02:04like the 2010 Bears, for instance.
02:06Some of these other teams that actually did end up doing really good things.
02:09There's more teams.
02:11And he lays out a whole list and a laundry list of teams.
02:13There are way more teams that start off 3-1 that you think are fluky, you think are bad,
02:18that end up in an 8-9 win territory than there are the 2016 Rams.
02:23Yeah, I just find it really frustrating.
02:26Like, we're in a spot where—and by the way, when it comes to the indicators here,
02:31the defense is really, really good.
02:34That's not an isolated incident.
02:36The defense has been good the last couple years.
02:38So one of the biggest fears was a massive regression on that defense.
02:42The defense has been really good, right?
02:44Even Deshaun.
02:45Like, this isn't the same thing as, like, if Tyson Bajent was the starting quarterback
02:51and they were 3-1.
02:53Deshaun isn't an NFL quarterback and has proven something.
02:56His big thing now is he's got to prove it and stay healthy.
02:59And oddly enough, he gives Deshaun credit in that.
03:01His 58 QBR is 18th, so he's better than the team's overall FPI standing.
03:04But part of this FPI and DVOA, what it accounts for, is they don't think the defense is nearly
03:09as good as what you're describing.
03:10They don't.
03:11But I would argue back, if I was talking to Aaron Schatz right now, I would say,
03:14that's great.
03:15How much of this is weighted into Week 1 in Jacksonville?
03:17Like, how much of you, the collective, the advanced analytical world and everything,
03:21is taking an incredibly small sample size, where a quarter of that sample size
03:25is really pretty awful?
03:27Because that Jacksonville game was awful.
03:29And we've pointed out the reasons why this team is different now in Week 2, 3, and 4
03:33than it was in Week 1.
03:34Zone versus man stuff.
03:35We already went through that, right?
03:36And so I feel like...
03:37Sometimes zone is man and man is zone.
03:39That's what they try to tell you.
03:40It blends together.
03:41But you know what?
03:41It's all how you identify.
03:43But the...
03:43Okay.
03:45The larger point is that I feel like the advanced analytical world is weighing way
03:51too heavy into this Jacksonville game.
03:53Now, again, I bet Aaron...
03:55I would bet a million dollars Aaron would come back and be like,
03:58well, Jacksonville's one of the best teams in the AFC.
04:00And we have to account for that.
04:01He's not wrong about that.
04:02He's not.
04:03We're not going to play another Jacksonville this year, though.
04:05Maybe Baltimore.
04:06We're not playing anywhere close to Jacksonville, though.
04:08216-474-0092.
04:10How can the Browns earn people's respect?
04:14I think the Baltimore game's a great opportunity.
04:17But at some point, like, you can't control who your schedule is.
04:21Like, to the idea of, oh, you're getting the Jets without Brees Hall.
04:25What a lucky happenstance.
04:27Same thing with Lamar.
04:28If Lamar doesn't play in two weeks, and, okay, what can you do about that?
04:32If the Browns just keep winning, I don't care how real it is.
04:35Like, at some point, yes, in week 14, if they're still winning, I'm sure no matter who
04:40you've beaten and who you've lost to, the Browns will get their flowers.
04:44Like, I just think continuously trying to pick this thing apart, no matter how valid the
04:49conversation is, it feels a little bit like picking on a fat kid at a skinny farm.
04:55Like, it's like, all right, man.
04:57Like, we can only go so low here, right?
05:00As far as the metrics will tell you, while winning games, and finish with a pretty good
05:04record.
05:04Can I ask you if the Browns go 10-7?
05:06Does it matter how real it is?
05:07No, it doesn't matter.
05:08It doesn't matter.
05:08That's the whole point.
05:09Even 8-9.
05:10Like, I just...
05:11It really, at the end of the day, does.
05:12Now, I guess, well, all right.
05:13In one sense, it will.
05:14So, and the idea that if you're trying to find out whether or not this team can sustain
05:18this thing long-term and they're building in the right direction, I guess from that perspective,
05:22it matters.
05:23If you end up being a 9-8 team, but the metrics tell you're actually a 5-win team, you
05:29might
05:29end up having some false belief.
05:30All right, let's go with Dan in Amherst here.
05:33Dan, welcome to the show, bud.
05:34Hey, guys.
05:35What's up, man?
05:35I just want to say, you know what?
05:37Good teams win, bad teams lose.
05:39It doesn't matter.
05:40They're all professional football players in the NFL.
05:43And, I mean, there's only 32 teams.
05:47When the Browns went 0-16, I mean, I'm sure they played some pretty bad teams, but they
05:53were a bad team, so they lost.
05:56I'm just saying, if the Browns keep winning, playing against other NFL opponents, I don't
06:01care who's quarterback, and I don't care what the defense says or what the metrics says,
06:06if they're winning, they're a pretty damn good team.
06:10I like your style, dude.
06:11And there is something to that.
06:12And, again, part of the reason why a lot of the NFL world, and thank you, Dan, is not
06:16going to give the Browns a lot of credit is because in the three wins we have, obviously
06:19the Jacksonville loss wasn't great, but they're all one-score games.
06:23And for myself, and watching Stefanski over the past couple years, I put a lot of value
06:28in winning one-score games because I watched Stefanski find a lot of ways to blow one-score
06:32games, okay?
06:32But that world doesn't, they don't look at it that way.
06:35They just don't.
06:36It's tough because I understand that you're taking a big picture and digging deep into
06:41these numbers, and I'm like, I don't know, is Denzel Ward real?
06:44Is Denzel Boston real?
06:46Is Harold Fannin Jr. real?
06:47Spencer Fano looks pretty damn real on the left side of the offensive line.
06:51Same with Austin Barber.
06:52Like, you know, you talked about the idea of false hope, which is ultimately if you go
06:5710-7 this year, people are going to expect 10-7 or better next year.
07:00And I get that, but like, well, a lot of those guys are still going to be here this year,
07:05next year, and, you know, whether Deshaun's here or it's Deshaun here into a rookie, there's
07:11a, we might finally be on the precipice of having repeatable success in Cleveland, which
07:16would be nice.
07:17That would be nice, but the problem you're going to have is if at the end of the season
07:20you win 10 games, but the advanced world tells you it should have been five, eventually
07:24that check will come through, and eventually their prognostications and what they feel like
07:29should have happened will happen.
07:31And so if you're on the belief that you're a 10-win team, you might come crashing back
07:34down to earth.
07:35Yeah, this sounds like future next problem.
07:38Yeah, it does.
07:38That idiot is, he can deal with those consequences.
07:41That schlub has no idea what's coming his way.
07:43What's fun about that is that we actually do know we have a front office that does think
07:46about these things and take exactly what Aaron Schatz is saying into equation.
07:51So like the front office, Andrew Barry will not have any false belief because he looks
07:54at this stuff.
